Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Op 13 november organiseerden The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies en The Clingendael Institute in samenwerking met het Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken en Ministerie van Defensie de jaarlijkse Dag van Progress. Het centrale thema van de dag stond in het teken Europese soevereiniteit in tijden van veranderende trans-Atlantische verhoudingen, en wat hierin de kansen en uitdagingen zijn voor Nederland en Europa. Samen met onderzoekers, beleidsmakers en strategische denkers verkenden we wat dit betekent voor Europa’s strategische autonomie, defensie-industrie en technologische weerbaarheid.

Greenland’s critical raw materials are attracting global attention – but will the EU and US step up, or will China fill the void? Assistant analyst Julie Jeuken investigates EU and US bilateral engagements with Greenland, finding that both share similar goals yet fall short of Nuuk's expectations. The snapshot calls for a Greenland-centred approach to transatlantic cooperation: aligning efforts with the island’s ambitions, leveraging renewable energy in mining, and coordinating with countries already active in the sector.

This new HCSS report by strategic analyst Davis Ellison concludes that the days of relying on the U.S. as the primary guarantor of European security may be coming to an end. The transatlantic partnership will not disappear overnight, but significant changes are underway. Europe must prepare for a future where it will play a much larger role in its own defence and security affairs.  

This letter to Allied governments proposes a Transatlantic Compact to stimulate and facilitate reconfirmation of the Alliance’s critical importance to the security of all the Allies while guiding the way for NATO transformation. It is also a substantive roadmap with specific capacity benchmarks and metrics that calls upon the Allies to focus at the 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington on the requirements necessitated by the new Russian threat and to accelerate progress towards fulfilling NATO Agenda 2030 and a more balanced and effective Alliance defense and deterrence.

The rapid intensification of geopolitical disorder and growing number of threats demand a greater role from the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) and its allies. But European naval forces declined sharply after the Cold War, raising questions about the current state of Dutch and European naval capabilities. In light of the recent political and military ambitions, the RNLN will therefore face a series of difficult choices when it comes to future investments and strategy. This new HCSS report by Paul van Hooft, Davis Ellison and Frederik Mertens seeks to explore these questions, and offers a series of recommendations that may help answer them.

This paper argues that Europeans need to more clearly formulate their objectives and develop policies based on a realistic view of their capabilities before embarking on a long-term commitment in the Indo-Pacific. This paper examines three distinctive objectives 1. upholding the maritime order, 2. ensure that Europe maintains access to key Asian economies, and 3. support for U.S. hegemony.

The creation of AUKUS has brought to the surface a worrying rift between Europe and the US. What does this mean for the future of transatlantic cooperation? This snapshot by Benedetta Girardi and Paul van Hooft explores the many ways in which the creation of AUKUS affected European engagement in one of the most important regions in the world, the Indo-Pacific.

Europe’s geopolitical environment is evolving. In response, the EU is inclined to pursue a more independent and assertive international role, but many questions remain about the future of European strategy. In this forum, thirteen scholars, from a wide variety of national and disciplinary backgrounds, address key challenges for European strategy, including in the areas of defense, trade, international norms, energy diversification, and relations with other major powers.

Sven Biscop (Egmont Institute) writes European strategy should be moderate when possible: pursuing interests by working w/others. But Europe must stand up for its interests when others act as rivals.

David Criekemans contends decarbonization & energy transition will have impact far beyond climate change. It should play key role in debate about strategic autonomy & European strategy.

Henrik Larsen writes success in tech arena must be cornerstone of European strategic autonomy but Europe faces big challenge esp. from China in developing tech norms & competitive tech industries.

Michiel Foulon argues European trade strategy should strike balance between accommodating legitimate concerns of economic nationalists & maintaining benefits of rules-based international trade.

European strategic autonomy is necessary as US shifts focus to Indo-Pacific, Paul van Hooft writes. Europe should do more for its own security in ways bolstering transatlantic alliance e.g. investing in conventional deterrence vis-à-vis Russia.

Trineke Palm argues that normative power is an essential instrument in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox and should play a central role in debates about strategic autonomy.

Dr Brian G. Carlson (Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich) discusses how recent events regarding Russia raise alarm bells for European security. These pressing security challenges for Europe will remain, while the US’s role in Europe’s defense changes.

Dr Daniel Fiott (EU Institute for Security Studies) argues European leaders must reconsider how to manage crises in the various (non-)traditional security domains. And that Europe must “assume more of a role for its own territorial security.”

Dr Monika Sus (Polish Academy of Sciences) argues if the EU Strategic Compass is to rectify some of the 2016 EU Global Strategy’s deficiencies, the Strategic Compass must meet three requirements: inclusivity, integration, and implementation.

Max Smeets argues when it comes to offensive cyber capabilities NATO allies are increasingly diverging. As a remedy a NATO MoU should be drafted to enhance cooperation and to improve the effectiveness of disrupting and deterring adversaries’ operations in cyberspace.

Barry Posen argues the US needs a different kind of strategic relationship with Europe in which Europe assumes primary responsibility for its own defense. Europe being able to protect itself from Russia would free US resources, not least for competition with China.

Shaun Breslin argues we need new vocabulary to describe the international system and Europe’s role within it, especially its relationship with China. We should stop using the Cold War lexicon because terms like bipolarity don’t capture the complexity of the new geopolitical landscape.

Europe is inclined to pursue a more independent and assertive international role in response to profound changes in the geopolitical landscape, but it faces big questions about strategic autonomy, the Union’s complex processes and institutions & the nature of European global influence.

The global balance of power is changing rapidly, and the multilateral system is under pressure. Erosion or even collapse of the multilateral system could have disastrous consequences for the Netherlands. In this new study Rob de Wijk and his co-authors illustrate how the Netherlands can help breathe new life into the international system and prevent its impending collapse.

"Als het multilateraal systeem instort, zou dit voor een open land als Nederland catastrofale gevolgen voor de economie en de veiligheid hebben." – Rob de Wijk
Het multilaterale systeem, waar Nederland onderdeel van is, levert ons ontzettend veel op. Zo boekte Nederland tegenover een bijdrage van €5,4 miljoen aan de…

On June 30th, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Netherlands Defence Academy (NLDA), hosted a Global Expert Symposium on NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept (NWCC), in coordination with NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT). At the Symposium the NWCC Team presented unclassified findings from the Capstone Concept, followed by discussions between experts. Now, HCSS and the NLDA present the key findings of the Symposium.

While many fixate on the South China Sea, the vast Indian Ocean region (IOR), stretching from East Africa to South East Asia, and down to Australia, has become a tense multipolar security space. Foreign military facilities and naval forces are proliferating around the Arabian Peninsula, writes HCSS Subject matter expert Richard Ghiasy in a new snapshot.

The global challenges caused by the Covid-19 crisis call for a combined effort of nations worldwide; however, the pandemic unfolds against the backdrop of a world that is increasingly characterized by great power competition. This new paper by HCSS and DISCvision highlights possible future interplays between nations in…

The economic relevance of space is growing, and interstate competition is heating up. Satellites are key to the Netherlands’ military capabilities, and space is also likely to play a role in the global energy transition. Our new strategic alert explores the threats and opportunities of space from the Dutch perspective.

Navigating the changing global environment requires first and foremost a keen understanding of changes in Dutch foreign relations. The Dutch Foreign Relations Index (DFRI) measures the relationship between the Netherlands and other countries over time. This can help in identifying potential partners as well as potential adversaries in the pursuit of Dutch foreign policy objectives. It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.