The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical and defence & security issues for governments, international institutions and businesses. Our research is characterized by a datadriven, multidisciplinary approach, specialist knowledge and a strategic orientation.

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What the Indo-Pacific means to Europe: trade value, chokepoints, and security risks
Trade between Europe and the Indo-Pacific depends on maritime trade routes. Supplies, however, can easily be disrupted in various chokepoints. This new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi, Paul van Hooft and Giovanni Cisco identifies hot spots and weak points in the global supply chain where Europeans should concentrate their maritime security efforts on a national, unilateral, minilateral or EU level.

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Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond
What are the core factors that drive semiconductor supply chains amid the current geopolitical climate post-pandemic, and into the near future by 2030? Will there be a secure supply and if so, why or why not? In a new HCSS guest paper, June Park, PhD, analyses the chip supply chain in the context of multiple geopolitical risks, reflecting the industry and government perspectives of countries involved in the supply chain.

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Indo-Pacific Security in 2030-35: Links in the Chain
In a world subject to increasing geopolitical competition, global value chains have become significantly vulnerable. Geopolitical threats related to great power competition, political rivalry, and maritime disputes pose serious risks to supply chains worldwide. To avoid the consequences of competition for global trade and supply chains, Jagannath Panda argues that like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific must work together to anticipate risk, minimise exposure, and help each other resist and adapt to sudden shocks brought along by geopolitical threats.

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Gas Supply Security in Europe and Asia Beyond 2030
Gas supply security stands at the forefront of global energy concerns, particularly for Europe and Asia. Guest author Philip Geurts highlights the challenges posed by the inflexibility of gas supplies due to long lead times for production projects, exacerbated by the limited versatility of gas exports, whether in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or through pipelines.

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Oil Supply Security of Asia and Europe Beyond 2030
In this paper, guest author Philip Geurts explores the ever-growing global demand for oil and the challenges it poses for policymakers in Asia and Europe. Despite the ongoing discourse on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the relentless demographic growth in developing nations and industrial development continue to propel oil demand upwards, projected to hover around 100 million barrels per day into the 2030s.

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The U.S.-China Technology War and Taiwan’s Semiconductor Role in Geopolitics
In the dynamic landscape of global geopolitics, Taiwan has emerged as a pivotal player in the U.S.-China technology war, particularly in the realm of semiconductor production. With a remarkable contribution of over 60% of advanced chips, Taiwan has positioned itself as a critical hub for technologies driving artificial intelligence, 5G, and advanced military weaponry. This paper by Jiann-Chyuan Wang, delves into the intricate interplay between the U.S.-China trade and technology war, the Chips & Science Act, and Taiwan's semiconductor industry.

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November 20, 2023

What the Indo-Pacific means to Europe: trade value, chokepoints, and security risks

November 20, 2023

Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond

November 20, 2023

Indo-Pacific Security in 2030-35: Links in the Chain

November 20, 2023

Gas Supply Security in Europe and Asia Beyond 2030

November 20, 2023

Oil Supply Security of Asia and Europe Beyond 2030

November 20, 2023

The U.S.-China Technology War and Taiwan’s Semiconductor Role in Geopolitics

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Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. The HCSS “Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH)” brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research

November 20, 2023

What the Indo-Pacific means to Europe: trade value, chokepoints, and security risks

November 20, 2023

Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond

November 20, 2023

Indo-Pacific Security in 2030-35: Links in the Chain

Deterrence and Arms Control

Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition in Asia and Europe, by emerging technologies, or refinements in existing technologies. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble. How Europe can shape a reinvigorated arms control regime is a question which HCSS seeks to answer in our Deterrence and Arms Control programme.

Latest Research

May 9, 2023

Pathways to Disaster: Russia’s War against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

April 25, 2023

Good Fear, Bad Fear: How European defence investments could be leveraged to restart arms control negotiations with Russia

March 21, 2023

CSP Journal | Beyond Deterrence: Reconceptualizing denial strategies and rethinking their emotional effects

Energy & Raw Materials

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition, such as the need for critical raw materials.

Latest Research

November 20, 2023

Gas Supply Security in Europe and Asia Beyond 2030

November 20, 2023

Oil Supply Security of Asia and Europe Beyond 2030

November 8, 2023

Advancing European Mineral Security: Insights from the Dutch industry

a moped with 2 passengers drives through the water

Climate & Security

The Climate & Security Program (CASP) is HCSS’ response to the urgent and ever increasing need for a better understanding of the most pressing geopolitical and security implications of climate change. CASP seeks to bridge the gap between researchers, policymakers and practitioners working on climate-related security challenges in Europe and around the world.

Latest Research

March 21, 2023

Understanding the Pathway from Water Insecurity to Urban Migration in Southern Iraq

February 15, 2023

Resilient and Robust: Climate-Proofing the Military for Increased Military Effectiveness

November 11, 2022

Global Center on Adaptation | State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2022

Strategic Monitor

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch MFA and MoD have tasked HCSS and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor.

Latest Research

November 20, 2023

What the Indo-Pacific means to Europe: trade value, chokepoints, and security risks

October 31, 2023

Ukraine’s Counter-Hybrid Campaigns in Cyberspace

October 31, 2023

Moldova’s Response to Hybrid Attacks: A learning-by-doing Strategy

Cyber Policy and Resilience

Cyberspace is increasingly a key domain for both domestic and international policy making, with cybersecurity being one of the most versatile and pressing challenges. The HCSS Cyber Policy and Resilience Programme bridges the rapidly evolving field of cybersecurity with traditional statecraft, drawing on a strong academic foundation merged with professional experience.

Latest Research

May 16, 2023

Deception as the Way of Warfare: Armed Forces, Influence Operations and the Cyberspace paradox

February 15, 2023

Defending the Digital Domain: The effort to build a cyber resilient India

September 14, 2022

Preventing the (Un)thinkable: Escalation Scenarios and Risk Reduction Measures for Russia and NATO following the War in Ukraine

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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