The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical and defence & security issues for governments, international institutions and businesses. Our research is characterized by a datadriven, multidisciplinary approach, specialist knowledge and a strategic orientation.

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Latest Research

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Cognitive Warfare as Part of Society: Never-Ending Battle for Minds
This paper by Robin Burda (Masaryk University) examines the experiences of Czechia and Ukraine in dealing with Cognitive Warfare (CW) and the implications for the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It highlights the challenges faced by liberal democracies, which have their "hands tied" against CW threats.

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The concept of Information Manoeuvre: Winning the Battle of Perceptions
Judith T. van de Kuijt, Naomi Keja, Jacoline C. Slaager (TNO) explore four fundamental elements of Information Manoeuvre and identify three dilemmas concerning its scope and conceptual considerations. What should be the effects and what does it mean when information is used as a weapon? The question arises how the concept of Information maneuver can be defined. What is the essence of the concept, and of which elements does it consist of?

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Smart Tactics or Risky Behaviour? The Lawfulness of Encouraging Civilians to Participate in Targeting in an Age of Digital Warfare
This paper by Pontus Winther and Per-Erik Nilsson examines the implications of digital technology in modern warfare, focusing on the challenges it poses to International Humanitarian Law in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The study analyses the use of smartphone applications and chatbots by Ukrainian civilians to become advanced "spotters" of enemy movements.

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Deception as the Way of Warfare: Armed Forces, Influence Operations and the Cyberspace paradox
Cyberspace proved to be a catalyst to unlock the information environment, taking away restrictions of influence operations via Internet. Nowadays, the capabilities are near-limitless, but governance appears to be the (self-inflicted) limiting factor. While these limitations apply to the Netherlands they do not to others. Peter B.M.J. Pijpers and Paul A.L. Ducheine highlight whether the current cyberspace-induced manipulative influence operations truly differ from the old-school deceptive and misleading operations.  

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Next Generation Organised Crime: Systemic change and the evolving character of modern transnational organised crime
As organised crime groups play increasingly significant roles as agents of influence and political change, the subject should receive more attention from international relations, international security, and strategic studies, this new HCSS report warns.

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Pathways to Disaster: Russia’s War against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation
The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This brief by HCSS analysts Paul van Hooft, Davis Ellison, and Tim Sweijs notes that NATO leaders and armed forces need to be conscious of unintended signals that can follow the placement of weapons, the movement of forces, and support to Ukraine, especially considering the deteriorating state of Russian armed forces.

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June 6, 2023

Cognitive Warfare as Part of Society: Never-Ending Battle for Minds

May 25, 2023

The concept of Information Manoeuvre: Winning the Battle of Perceptions

May 22, 2023

Smart Tactics or Risky Behaviour? The Lawfulness of Encouraging Civilians to Participate in Targeting in an Age of Digital Warfare

May 16, 2023

Deception as the Way of Warfare: Armed Forces, Influence Operations and the Cyberspace paradox

May 15, 2023

Next Generation Organised Crime: Systemic change and the evolving character of modern transnational organised crime

May 9, 2023

Pathways to Disaster: Russia’s War against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

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Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. The HCSS “Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH)” brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research

May 2, 2023

A Man-of-War is the Best Ambassador: European Naval Deployments as Costly and Useful Diplomatic Signals

May 1, 2023

Nederland en Maritieme Veiligheid in de Indo-Pacific regio: van principes naar uitvoerbaar beleid

April 18, 2023

Analysis of and Recommendations for European Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific Region

Cyber Policy & Resilience

Cyberspace is increasingly a key domain for both domestic and international policy making, with cybersecurity being one of the most pressing challenges. We bridge the field of cybersecurity with traditional statecraft.

Latest Research

May 16, 2023

Deception as the Way of Warfare: Armed Forces, Influence Operations and the Cyberspace paradox

February 15, 2023

Defending the Digital Domain: The effort to build a cyber resilient India

October 31, 2022

The parallel front | An analysis of the military use of information in the first seven months of the war in Ukraine

Energy & Natural Resources

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition.

Latest Research

April 12, 2023

Competitie tussen grootmachten en maatschappelijke stabiliteit in Nederland: de risico’s van Russisch gas, Chinese grondstoffen en Taiwanese chips voor vitale sectoren

March 20, 2023

Decarbonising maritime bunkering in the Netherlands and the embargo on Russian oil

March 9, 2023

Energiehandel in Nederland: blik op de toekomst

a moped with 2 passengers drives through the water

Climate & Security

The Climate & Security Program (CASP) is HCSS’ response to the urgent and ever increasing need for a better understanding of the most pressing geopolitical and security implications of climate change.

Latest Research

March 21, 2023

Understanding the Pathway from Water Insecurity to Urban Migration in Southern Iraq

February 15, 2023

Resilient and Robust: Climate-Proofing the Military for Increased Military Effectiveness

November 11, 2022

Global Center on Adaptation | State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2022

Strategic Monitor

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch MFA and MoD have tasked HCSS and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor.

Latest Research

April 18, 2023

Analysis of and Recommendations for European Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific Region

April 17, 2023

Ten Guidelines for Dealing with Hybrid Threats: A Policy Response Framework

April 3, 2023

The French Strategy for the Indo-Pacific and the issue of European cooperation

HCSS Datalab & Data Warehouse

The Datalab is HCSS’ in-house evidence and knowledge base that is increasingly becoming the foundation on which we build our geostrategic analyses. By doing so, we complement deep human expertise with more systematic – and multi-perspectivist – machine-based and data-driven analysis.

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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