The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical and defence & security issues for governments, international institutions and businesses. Our research is characterized by a datadriven, multidisciplinary approach, specialist knowledge and a strategic orientation.

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Latest Research

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Disentangling causality: assumptions in causal discovery and inference
Causality has been a burgeoning field, but for researchers it has been difficult to discern the assumptions they have to abide by in order to glean sound conclusions from causal concepts or methods. In an article published in the Journal of Artificial Intelligence Review, HCSS data scientists Maarten Vonk and Nino Malekovic, together with Thomas Bäck and Anna Kononova of the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), aim to disambiguate the different causal concepts that have emerged in causal inference and causal discovery from observational data by attributing them to different levels of Pearl’s Causal Hierarchy.

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Understanding the Pathway from Water Insecurity to Urban Migration in Southern Iraq
In southern Iraq, decades of water insecurity have influenced migration patterns by endangering agricultural output and the livelihoods of farmers. While a direct link between water insecurity and migration cannot be drawn, water insecurity may indirectly increase migration patterns by impacting individuals’ livelihoods, health, energy and food security. Learn more about what the Iraqi authorities and the private sector can do.

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CSP Journal | Beyond Deterrence: Reconceptualizing denial strategies and rethinking their emotional effects
Western strategic thought about denial strategies and their effects is conceptually muddled. In a new article in Contemporary Security Policy (CSP), Tim Sweijs and Samuel Zilincik try to reconceptualize denial and rethink its emotional effects. The authors argue that the expansion of military domains and the renewed emphasis on multi-domain coercion requires us to reconsider the utility of denial strategies with a pair of fresh eyes.

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Decarbonising maritime bunkering in the Netherlands and the embargo on Russian oil
How can the European boycott on Russian oil affect maritime bunkering in the Netherlands? And how do these sanctions interact with ambitions to decarbonize shipping under Fit-for-55? This new report by HCSS and CE Delft develops three storylines of how bunkering in Dutch ports will be affected by sanctions on Russian oil.

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Dancing In The Dark: The Seven Sins of Deterrence Assessment
Do NATO’s deterrence policies really have an impact on Russian behaviour? Deterrence policies have gained renewed interest amongst policymakers and military strategists alike, driving the need for robust assessments and evaluation of deterrence strategies. This new study by Tim Sweijs and Mattia Bertolini identifies seven sins of deterrence assessments and offers clear guidelines on how to address them.

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The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: What Is It Worth?
This paper by Eva Pejsova (The Brussels School of Governance) asks what has been the scope and focus of the European (EU) naval presence in the Indo-Pacific and what has been its effect? This paper looks at the rationales and specificities of the naval deployments of France, Germany and the Netherlands in the Indo-Pacific.

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March 22, 2023

Disentangling causality: assumptions in causal discovery and inference

March 21, 2023

Understanding the Pathway from Water Insecurity to Urban Migration in Southern Iraq

March 21, 2023

CSP Journal | Beyond Deterrence: Reconceptualizing denial strategies and rethinking their emotional effects

March 20, 2023

Decarbonising maritime bunkering in the Netherlands and the embargo on Russian oil

March 16, 2023

Dancing In The Dark: The Seven Sins of Deterrence Assessment

March 13, 2023

The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: What Is It Worth?

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Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. The HCSS “Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH)” brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research

March 13, 2023

The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: What Is It Worth?

March 8, 2023

Towards a Sustainable and Meaningful European Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Southeast Asian Perspective

March 7, 2023

Structure and Contingency: War Onset in the East China Sea

Cyber Policy & Resilience

Cyberspace is increasingly a key domain for both domestic and international policy making, with cybersecurity being one of the most pressing challenges. We bridge the field of cybersecurity with traditional statecraft.

Latest Research

February 15, 2023

Defending the Digital Domain: The effort to build a cyber resilient India

October 31, 2022

The parallel front | An analysis of the military use of information in the first seven months of the war in Ukraine

September 14, 2022

Preventing the (Un)thinkable: Escalation Scenarios and Risk Reduction Measures for Russia and NATO following the War in Ukraine

Energy & Natural Resources

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition.

Latest Research

March 20, 2023

Decarbonising maritime bunkering in the Netherlands and the embargo on Russian oil

March 9, 2023

Energiehandel in Nederland: blik op de toekomst

January 17, 2023

Energy trade in the Netherlands | Past, present and future

a moped with 2 passengers drives through the water

Climate & Security

The Climate & Security Program (CASP) is HCSS’ response to the urgent and ever increasing need for a better understanding of the most pressing geopolitical and security implications of climate change.

Latest Research

March 21, 2023

Understanding the Pathway from Water Insecurity to Urban Migration in Southern Iraq

February 15, 2023

Resilient and Robust: Climate-Proofing the Military for Increased Military Effectiveness

November 11, 2022

Global Center on Adaptation | State and Trends in Adaptation Report 2022

Strategic Monitor

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch MFA and MoD have tasked HCSS and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor.

Latest Research

January 16, 2023

Emerging Disruptive Technologies in an Era of Great Power Competition

December 6, 2022

Not one without the other: realigning deterrence and arms control in a European quest for strategic stability

November 24, 2022

Position Paper: Chips, kritieke grondstoffen en Nederlands-Europese economische veiligheid

HCSS Datalab & Data Warehouse

The Datalab is HCSS’ in-house evidence and knowledge base that is increasingly becoming the foundation on which we build our geostrategic analyses. By doing so, we complement deep human expertise with more systematic – and multi-perspectivist – machine-based and data-driven analysis.

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research and provides advice on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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