The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS is a knowledge institute that conducts independent research. Our goal is to offer fact-based analysis of the challenges that our societies face in order to inform public discourse, public and private strategic decision making and contribute to international and national security in accordance with liberal democratic values.

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Latest Research

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  • Know Thy Enemy, Know Thyself: Simulations of Political Leaders’ Crisis Behaviour after a Ceasefire in Ukraine

    What happens when a fragile ceasefire in Ukraine breaks down, and a second international emergency hits before leaders can bring the situation under control? In a new report, HCSS uses 160 crisis simulations to examine how political leaders might respond to a ceasefire breakdown compounded by a second international emergency. From Trump and Putin to Zelensky and Macron, the findings highlight the importance of coalition cohesion, leader behaviour and preparing for escalation and de-escalation. The report sets out seven recommendations for NATO and European policymakers to strengthen crisis preparedness.

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  • Leverage without independence: The Netherlands and the geopolitics of semiconductor chokepoints 

    A new HCSS paper by Isis Ketelaar and Benedetta Girardi examines Dutch semiconductor export policy from 2019 to 2026, highlighting the balance between cooperation with US export controls and national decision-making autonomy. ASML’s monopoly on the world’s most advanced chipmaking machines gives the Netherlands strategic leverage in US-China competition. However, commercial ties with China, security reliance on the US, American export control laws, and EU regulations constrain its freedom. The study shows how the Netherlands has improved its ability to navigate these limits, offering lessons for smaller powers.

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  • How Europe can act when NATO cannot: From NATO 3.0 to a European Plan B

    A new HCSS paper by Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Davis Ellison argues that Europe needs a NATO-compatible Plan B for contingencies in which US participation is absent and NATO consensus cannot be reached. The authors propose a European Defence Compact that would give willing European Allies a pre-agreed political and military chain for action — while preserving NATO as the preferred framework and enabling a clean return to NATO command when consensus is restored.

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  • The silicon economy: polysilicon supply chains in times of geoeconomic transition 

    New HCSS policy brief: Europe’s energy and digital transitions depend on secure access to critical materials, with polysilicon at the heart of solar, battery and semiconductor supply chains. Ron Stoop and Irina Patrahau identify vulnerabilities in Europe’s position and set out three priorities: coordinated supply chains, targeted EU financing and a tailored policy framework for polysilicon.

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  • De Reis van een Militaire Trein

    Nederland vervult een cruciale rol als logistieke schakel voor militaire mobiliteit in Europa. In het nieuwe HCSS-rapport “De reis van een militaire trein” wordt de volledige civiel-militaire keten achter militaire spoortransporten geanalyseerd. Bij een toename van militaire mobiliteit zijn verdere standaardisatie, schaalbaarheid en betere samenwerking noodzakelijk. De auteurs doen zes aanbevelingen om de keten toekomstbestendig en schaalbaar te maken.

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  • HCSS Focus | Verhuftering

    Bijna negen op de tien Nederlanders zien verhuftering als een bedreiging voor de samenleving, maar vrijwel niemand ziet zichzelf als onderdeel van het probleem. De nieuwe HCSS Focus van Gerben Bakker en Jesse Kommandeur onderzoekt hoe Nederlanders verhuftering verklaren, welke vormen zij het meest zorgwekkend vinden en wie volgens hen aan zet is. De analyse laat een duidelijke verantwoordelijkheidskloof zien — en biedt aanknopingspunten voor beleid dat verder gaat dan alleen handhaving.

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Trending Topics

Find out what we are currently working on.

Link to: Europe in the Indo-Pacific

Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. HCSS brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research
Link to: Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Deterrence and Arms Control

Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition, by emerging technologies, or refinements in existing technologies. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble. How can Europe shape a reinvigorated arms control regime?

Latest Research
Link to: Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Transatlantic Relations

In the HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations, we study the history and evolution of the transatlantic relationship, looking to understand the deeper ideas and structures behind the changes in the U.S.-European relationship.

Latest Research
Link to: On Future War

On Future War

The nature of war endures, even as its character transforms. Today’s conflicts merge kinetic, connected, and synthetic dimensions. By bridging the perspectives of traditionalists and futurists, we seek to understand both high-tech and low-tech conflict, offering insights that help policymakers navigate an increasingly complex and contested security environment.

Latest Research
Link to: Energy Security

Energy Security

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition.

Latest Research
Link to: Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

HCSS onderzoekt hoe Nederland weerbaar blijft in een tijd van polarisatie, hybride dreigingen, georganiseerde misdaad en internationale spanningen. Met diepgaande analyses voor o.a. de Nederlandse Politie brengen we maatschappelijke kwetsbaarheden, beïnvloeding en lokale veiligheidsdynamieken scherp in beeld.

Latest Research

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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News

Catch up with the latest HCSS media appearances, interviews, op-eds, webinars, columns and more.

Column Rob de Wijk | A rather coincidental series of events

Know Thy Enemy, Know Thyself: Simulations of Political Leaders’ Crisis Behaviour after a Ceasefire in Ukraine

New HCSS report | Know Thy Enemy, Know Thyself: Simulations of Political Leaders’ Crisis Behaviour after a Ceasefire in Ukraine

Tim Sweijs | ORF Essay: “Into the Great Dark Open? Managing Maritime Contestation”

Remco Mulder joins HCSS as new Strategic Analyst

Podcasts

Strategische Vragen | De Strateeg: Worden satellieten de grootste doelwitten van vijanden?

De Strateeg: Nederland wil vooroplopen in de ruimte met satellieten

De Strateeg: Het belang van ontwikkelingssamenwerking voor Nederland

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