Transnational Organised Crime

Transnational organized crime remains a pervasive and evolving challenge that transcends borders, intersecting with global threats such as violent conflict, terrorism, climate change, and rising geopolitical competition. Unlike these challenges, however, a globally coordinated strategy for countering organized crime is still lacking. In today’s interconnected world, organized crime consists of increasingly fluid, decentralized, and technologically resilient trading networks that thrive in shadow (or parallel) global illicit economies.

At HCSS, our research initiatives delve into the complexities of organized crime, with a distinctive approach that combines qualitative and quantitative research. We specifically focus on the link between state stability and organized crime in conflict-prone environments and the undermining impact of subversive organized crime on our social, political, and judicial systems.

Latest HCSS Research on Transnational Organised Crime

Due to its close links to broader global dynamics, HCSS does research on organised crime as part of multiple projects, such as PROGRESS and the Strategic Monitor: Police.

Veilige stad: Uitdagingen voor hoogstedelijke gebieden in Nederland

Looming and Lethal: Assessing the Operational Implications of Drone Use by Mexican Organized Crime Groups

De Staat van de Rechtsstaat: Waar Staan We, Waar Gaan We Naartoe?

Next Generation Organised Crime: Systemic change and the evolving character of modern transnational organised crime

About the HCSS Transnational Organised Crime programme

Our research has three main focus areas:

Trends in transnational organised crime

Trends in the evolution and future trajectories of transnational organized crime are closely linked to broader global dynamics. Organized crime’s social and economic integration, along with recruitment into criminal organizations, depend on rapid demographic, technological, and systemic changes. With rising international multipolarity and geopolitical competition, the activities and markets for organized crime are likely to expand further. This expansion increasingly relies on a shadow global illicit economy and clandestine transfer and investment vehicles, which often intersect with and exploit the formal regulated financial system.

Impact of geopolitical events on criminal networks

Unlike organized crime groups, criminal networks thrive on constantly changing alliances, and swiftly rearrange their activities to maximize profitability. This inherent fluidity is shaped by geopolitical trends, as shifts in the global landscape create new opportunities and challenges. War, in particular, always breeds crime. The combination of shortages, access to weapons, illegal and secret supply networks, and sheer desperation can lead to a surge in various criminal activities, from weapons trafficking to human exploitation. Mass displacement of people, large shipments of small and heavy arms, and the disruption of existing criminal networks often reinforce ongoing illegal behaviour and foster the creation of new illicit activities.

Undermining effect on society

The term undermining refers to the effect of criminal activities, in a broad sense, on society, and by extend our rule of law. It is important to distinguish organised crime as such, and the impact it has on our social, political and judicial system, referred to as undermining or ‘subversive’ organised crime. Undermining is not the goal of criminal organizations but rather a side effect of their activities. Which is different from intended undermining for example due to foreign interference or influence. In regard to organised crime, undermining can manifest itself in society in the form of public violence such as assaults and assassinations, the dumping of drug-related chemical waste, threats made against and intimidation of public officials, and corruption.