Geopolitics has become an inescapable topic for boardrooms in the Netherlands. More and more directors in the Netherlands understand that geopolitics is not a weather phenomenon where one decides on bringing an umbrella in the morning. HCSS Boardroom was set up to help companies and investors become more geopolitically shock-resistant in a world of geopolitical fragmentation, which is showing traits of decoupling and turning less liberal.
Why can geopolitics no longer be ignored in the boardroom?
Putin’s gas blackmail increased industrial production costs and reduced European purchasing power. Bidens Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) threatens to lure industry away from Europe. US pressure not to supply more and more ASML chip machines to China shows that the Netherlands cannot stay out of the competition between superpowers. And this does not go unanswered: China introduced export controls on essential materials for our modern economy, such as gallium, germanium and graphite, whose production it dominates. In addition, Beijing is stepping up its military manoeuvres around Taiwan. In this geopolitically volatile era, the European Union is highly dependent on foreign countries for both its current, fossil energy supply and raw materials for the new, sustainable energy system. The 2022 energy crisis cost EU member states more than €1,000 billion. In contrast, the US and China are largely self-sufficient. Reducing dependence on China, especially on raw materials and intermediates for vital sectors such as defence and medical, is now a top priority in the EU. Energy security of supply has been Europe’s top priority for the past two years. Are these issues also top priorities in your boardroom?
Geopolitical Due Diligence
While major powers are now fighting for their national interests and turning the international playing field upside down, you need to make your investment decisions today. HCSS Boardroom was established to help companies and investors seize opportunities and avoid risks in an increasingly raucous world. Our goal is to contribute to a geopolitically shock-resistant Netherlands.
Stresstests for your business. Besides masterclasses, HCSS Boardroom offers geopolitical due diligence exercises. In these HCSS-developed geopolitical stresstests, we challenge you to translate various geopolitical risk scenarios into direct implications for your business operations. If you are interested in discussing the possibilities, please contact Daniëlla Kranendonk via info@hcss.nl (with boardroom@hcss.nl in ‘cc) or by calling 070-3184840.
For the Grand Opening of HCSS Boardroom on April 6 2023, the Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation, Liesje Schreinemacher, provided a Q&A. Beforehand, Joris Teer (China and foresight analyst HCSS) and Han ten Broeke (Director of Political Affairs HCSS) gave a HCSS Boardroom Masterclass on the breaking points in our relationship with China, especially where semiconductors and strategic raw materials are concerned.
HCSS Boardroom Expert Survey: Supply Chain Risks in the Coming Decade
This expert survey was conducted for the HCSS boardroom initiative. In Masterclass #1 Geopolitics of de-globalisation: Russian Gas, Taiwanese chips and Chinese raw materials, Joris Teer (China – and foresight analyst HCSS) and Han ten Broeke (Director of Political Affairs HCSS) give a masterclass on the breaking points in our relationship with China, especially where semiconductors and strategic raw materials are concerned.
Masterclass #2: Geopolitics of the energy transition: A difficult fossil farewel and an uncertain sustainable future
In the new HCSS Boardroom Masterclass, the vulnerability of Europe and the Netherlands in the energy transition becomes painfully clear. Indeed, strategic dependencies apply to our new energy system (think of both solar and wind infrastructure and the raw materials needed for this). This also still applies to oil and gas, for which Europe is highly import-dependent. Pipelines are vulnerable supply channels, as we have seen with the sabotage of Nordstream. As a result of Russian gas blackmail, we now import plenty of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from, for instance, the US and the Middle East. The trade routes over which this has to be imported bring entirely new risks, as well as unrest in those regions themselves. Shelling by the Houthis threatens shipping through the Red Sea. The US suffers from internal polarisation, and also shows greater protectionism with, for example, its IRA.
It is amid these geopolitical developments that we must switch to a new energy system to combat climate change. However, the new energy system also harbours a huge dependence on mainly China. And the energy transition, driven for the first time by policy rather than technological innovation, is larger in scale and complexity than we have ever seen before. The reality of the risks involved is slowly penetrating the EU, but the consequences for you are immediate. After all, energy affordability and security of supply affects everyone.
How do you prepare yourself for a European future where energy prices will remain structurally volatile and will likely turn out to be higher rather than lower? Where we need a rapid energy transition, which also brings new uncertainties?
Masterclass #1: Geopolitics of decoupling: Russian gas, Taiwanese semiconductors and Chinese raw materials
Both semiconductors and critical commodities are described as the oil of the 21st century. Computers, smartphones, medical equipment, cars, solar panels, wind turbines and fighter jets all rely on chips and critical raw materials. The acceleration of the energy transition to achieve independence from Russia directly increases dependence on China. And China cannot be sanctioned away. As rivalries between great powers intensify, chip and critical resource chains are increasingly being used as weapons, similar to how Putin used natural gas as political leverage in 2022. A handful of democracies – namely Taiwan, South Korea, the US, Japan and European countries – dominate the chip sector. However, essential raw materials for that chip production are supplied by the EU’s system rivals, Russia and China, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. How sustainable are those dependencies over the next five and ten years? And what will your shareholders, customers and supervisory directors ask if you are not prepared for another large-scale supply chain disruption?
Organising a HCSS Boardroom Masterclass with your organisation
Organising a geopolitical due diligence session or Masterclass with a group consisting of members of your Management Board, Board of Directors or Supervisory Board or a select group of decision-makers from your own company, can be provided at various locations. This is followed (if desired) by a dinner where board members and peers operationalise the geopolitical knowledge gained for their organisation. To request a quote for a Masterclass on a date of your choice, hosted either in Dutch or in English, please contact Daniëlla Kranendonk via info@hcss.nl (with boardroom@hcss.nl in ‘cc) or by calling 070-3184840.
Want to learn more about other ways HCSS Boardroom can help your organisation become more geopolitically shock-resistant, such as through stresstesting and geopolitical due diligence excercises? Contact Daniëlla Kranendonk at info@hcss.nl (with boardroom@hcss.nl in ‘cc) or by calling 070-3184840.
HCSS Boardroom
HCSS Boardroom is an initiative by Han ten Broeke, Director of Political Affairs, and Joris Teer, former China and strategic foresight analyst HCSS.
HCSS Boardroom Experts
Follow a manual added link
Berend (Beer) Kwak
Project Management Officer
HCSSLink to: Lucia van Geuns
Lucia van Geuns
Strategic Advisor Energy
HCSSLink to: Jilles van den Beukel
Jilles van den Beukel
Strategic Advisor Energy
HCSS