Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Europe and the United States must adapt to a new reality, one in which the geopolitical centre of gravity has moved from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The transatlantic relationship will irreversibly change in the coming decade due to a series of converging trends. The HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations (IFTAR), with its Programme 2021-2030: Transatlantic Relations in the Age of Sino-American Competition, aims to ensure that both sides continue to enjoy the benefits of the shared interests and values on which the transatlantic relationship is based.

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Content and Products: Research and Public Engagement

The HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations rests on three research pillars:

Maintaining the Transatlantic Institutional Order

First, the initiative develops strategies to engage, manage, and maintain the transatlantic relationship. The U.S. and Europe continue to share interests and values in an era of increased geopolitical competition; these include rule-setting in trade, finance, access to dual-use technologies, intellectual property rights, the internet and cyberspace, human rights, and climate change. The programme identifies policies, debates, and transatlantic political coalitions in which European governments can invest to maintain U.S. engagement with Europe and uphold multilateral approaches to global governance.

Strengthening European Deterrence

Second, the initiative develops new ideas designed to improve the European contribution to NATO’s conventional deterrence. Improved conventional deterrence will allow Europeans to address possible capability shortfalls and deterrence gaps if the U.S. is engaged elsewhere, and give the U.S. flexibility in confronting challenges in the Asia-Pacific. It addresses emerging deterrence gaps while avoiding the re-nuclearization of European security. Beyond doctrinal and technological innovations, the initiative also identifies European bilateral or mini-lateral partnerships alongside NATO and the EU through which European governments can enhance concrete capabilities.

Mapping the Sources of U.S. Engagement with Europe

Third, the initiative looks beyond the White House to explore the evolving political factors that drive U.S. engagement with Europe: at the subnational level, U.S. states and cities have divergent interests, trade and investment flows differ by state, and demographic trends affect the nature of U.S. foreign policy. The HCSS also tracks the demands on U.S. forces around the globe, especially hotspots, which could create capability shortfalls and deterrence gaps in Europe.