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Deterrence and arms control are often perceived to be in contradiction with one another, but they are in fact complementary. Deterrence is raising the costs and risks of unwanted actions by an adversary to dissuade them from taking those actions; arms control is finding common ground between adversaries on which costs and risks are acceptable and how states can achieve strategic stability. Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition in Asia and Europe, by emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities, or refinements in existing technologies, such as ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble, unlike the bipolar world of past, the US would now have to find common ground with both Russia and China. How Europe can shape a reinvigorated arms control regime is an open question, but one which HCSS seeks to answer in our Deterrence and Arms Control programme.
Catch up on all of HCSS’s work on Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control
The HCSS Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control programme produces research on a range of interconnected topics and acts as a nexus for expert opinion.
HCSS research addresses issues relating to (1) general principles of deterrence; (2) nuclear, conventional, and ‘hybrid’ deterrence; (3) the challenges of extended nuclear deterrence in alliances; (4) nuclear escalation, signalling, and coercion; (5) inadvertent nuclear escalation; (6) arms control through a combination of political, technological, intellectual, and economic incentives and disincentives; and (7) exploiting competitive pressures towards arms control.
HCSS has built a large body of work on deterrence that has looked at the challenges of deterrence, whether nuclear, conventional, or hybrid, as well as the risks of escalation. We are particularly interested in what small and middle powers can do to deter larger revisionist powers, whether in Europe or in Asia. HCSS research has looked at which conventional, nuclear, or other capabilities deter best and in which political and geographic contexts, and how intentions and capabilities can be best communicated.
Arms control is often perceived as cooperation between adversaries; however, such a perspective overlooks the competitive pressures and fears that incentivise adversaries to cooperate and accept quantitative and qualitative limits on their conventional and nuclear weapons. HCSS has examined such dynamics within existing and emerging technologies and argued for a series of measures that focus on production, proliferation, deployment, and/or employment, including economic access and export control, norms and trust building, arms control, and more comprehensive deterrence.
HCSS publishes research reports on deterrence and arms control, commissions contributions from international scholars, and convenes international and national symposia with key experts from across the globe. HCSS analysts regularly share their views in political and public fora, through expert testimony in for parliamentary committees, participation in Track 2.0 and 1.5 Dialogues, and in contributions to national and international media outlets.
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