Introducing “The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy” by HCSS Director of Research, Tim Sweijs: “a pathbreaking”, “sophisticated” and “nuanced exploration” of ultimata as a core concept in the scholarship of coercive diplomacy.
“This impressive work demonstrates that ultimata are far more successful than is commonly believed. This is a major and potentially troubling finding that makes this book a “must-read” for everyone with an interest in in coercion and coercive diplomacy.”
Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Professor at the Royal Danish Defence College Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark
Ultimata constitute strong coercive threats that consist of a specific demand from the opponent, a deadline for compliance, and the promise of violent punishment in case of non- compliance. The book delves into Western strategic, political, and legal thought and traces the historical evolution of ultimata from Antiquity to the present day. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this book challenges the scholarly assumption that ultimatum strategies are necessarily risky. Through a comprehensive analysis of a newly compiled dataset featuring 87 ultimata issued from 1920 to 2020, Sweijs unveils a new perspective on the effectiveness and outcomes of ultimata.
The dataset includes a variety of well-known and lesser-known historical ultimata episodes are critically examined: from ultimata issued by the Little Entente in Central Europe in the 1920s, Japanese ultimata against China in the 1930s, to the Famous Berline Deadline Crises in the 1950s and 1960s, on to the United States’ ultimata to Iraq in the 1990s and 2000, and the ultimatum by the Saudi led coalition against Qatar in 2017, and many others.
“This nuanced, sophisticated, and pathbreaking study of ultimata from ancient times to the present explores the diverse reasons behind their issuance and mixed record of success. Sweijs examines the phenomenon of threat and escalation more generally and offers original insights relevant to the theory and practice of international relations.”
Richard Ned Lebow, Presidential Professor Emeritus at Dartmouth College, USA
Sweijs lays out a four-pronged typology that illuminates the diverse purposes and effects of ultimata:
1) the dictate,
2) the conditional war declaration,
3) the bluff, and
4) the brinkmanship ultimatum.
Through the typology and empirical analysis, his book provides an important contribution to the study of interstate threat behaviour at a time of surging competition.
Previous scholarly efforts have failed to reach consensus on the utility of ultimata as a tool of coercive statecraft. Sweijs finds that ultimata result in compliance in almost half of the cases. Though ultimata constitute dangerous bargaining moves, Sweijs demonstrates that in the majority of episodes featuring escalation, coercers achieved their demands.
Sweijs demonstrates that states have engaged in explicit threat behaviour throughout the past century with waves of ultimata in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1990s. These waves appeared within the broader constellation of the international relations of the day and the prevailing norms therein. Even if these varied quite considerably from one period to the next, one important similarity has been that ultimata were deployed repeatedly and in close succession against the background of a broader surge of coercive behaviour in the system.
The insights offered in this book therefor also bear contemporary policy relevance in light of important contemporary challenges to international peace and security. Over the past decade there has been a surge in both assertive and aggressive behaviour by states, in which the pursuit and protection of national interests are prioritised regardless of the costs this may impose on other states. Policymakers are ill advised not to prepare for the comeback of coercive behaviour in the current context of deteriorating international relations.
“Ultimata, whereby adversaries are threatened with severe punishment if they do not comply with demands, is one of the purest forms of coercive diplomacy. In this unique and meticulous study, Sweijs demonstrates that ultimata can take a number of forms, each with their own conditions to determine their effectiveness.”
Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College UK
“The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy” is an invaluable resource for scholars, policymakers, and anyone seeking to navigate the complex realm of international relations.
Through in-depth historical examination, a large dataset, and critical analysis, Tim Sweijs presents an original contribution that challenges conventional wisdom and reshapes our understanding of ultimata and their role in contemporary statecraft.
For further exploration, readers can publicly access the background materials, including the dataset, case studies and coding procedures, online at www.coerciveplomacy.com.
The book can be accessed and purchased, either as an e-book or hardcover book, via the Springer website: The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy (ISBN: 978-3-031-21303-8).
“In a period of intensifying rivalries, the use of coercive diplomacy, threats, and ultimatums–the “ultimata” of Sweijs’s fascinating new volume–will become ever more common. An essential guidebook to navigating these dangerous waters, emphasizing the diverse nature of coercive threats and the risks of generalized theories about them. Eloquent, deeply researched, and methodologically sophisticated, this book represents an essential contribution to our understanding of coercive threats in world politics.”
Michael J. Mazarr, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation
About the Author
Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Senior Research Fellow at the Netherlands’ War Studies Research Centre. Tim serves as an Adviser Technology, Conflict and National Interest to the UK Government’s Stabilisation Unit as well as a Research Affiliate at the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute for Technology. Tim is also a board member at the European Initiative for Security Studies where he chairs the War, Coercion and Statecraft Working Group. His two most recent book projects are ‘The Conduct of War in the 21st Century Kinetic, Connected and Synthetic’ (Routledge 2021) and ‘Deterrence in the 21st Century: Insights from Theory and Practice’ (Asser-Springer, 2021).
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