On Future War

Why did so many Western governments fail to anticipate Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite all the warning signs? Based on 44 interviews and in-depth analysis, this groundbreaking new HCSS report by Tim Sweijs, Thijs van Aken, Julie Ebrard, Philippe van Pappelendam and Anna Hoefnagels reveals how psychological and cognitive biases distorted policymakers’ threat perception — with far-reaching consequences.

Why do deterrence efforts fail? Often, it’s not what is said, but how it’s said. In a new report, HCSS strategic advisor Dr. Jeffrey H. Michaels explores how the success or failure of deterrence often hinges not just on military threats, but on how warnings are communicated. With case studies from WWI to Ukraine, this report offers practical lessons for NATO’s current and future deterrence strategies.

Op 24 april verschijnt "De oorlog van morgen" (Uitgeverij Balans), waarin experts Martijn Kitzen en Tim Sweijs analyseren hoe moderne oorlogvoering razendsnel verandert door nieuwe wapens, technologieën en strategieën, van AI tot drones en van sabotage tot desinformatie. “De oorlog van morgen” biedt een scherpe blik op de dreigingen van vandaag én morgen, en wat dat betekent voor Nederland. Hoe bereiden we ons voor? Een onmisbare gids voor beleidsmakers, militairen en burgers die onze veiligheid willen begrijpen en beschermen.

Why did Western Allies fail to deter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how can our deterrence improve? In this guest paper, Kenneth Payne, Professor of Strategy at King’s College London, explores how regret and shifting preferences shaped Western responses. Payne argues for a dynamic, self-reflective approach to deterrence that accounts for evolving goals and biases, complementing the focus on adversaries. Policymakers must challenge assumptions, revisit judgments, and embrace imagination to better navigate future crises.

What lessons can Taiwan learn from the Russian war in Ukraine? A new HCSS study by Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Tim Sweijs analyses Ukraine’s resistance against Russia, offering key insights for Taiwan’s defence strategy. The report highlights the importance of asymmetric denial tactics, sustained resilience, and strategic deterrence to counter a potential Chinese invasion. Key recommendations include strengthening air and missile defence, enhancing naval strike capabilities, and improving intelligence networks. By learning from Ukraine, Taiwan can bolster its defences and deter aggression.

The war in Ukraine illustrates the use of various old and new techniques in warfighting, employing both Western cutting-edge and Soviet-era equipment. Different innovations and adaptations have been witnessed across domains. Although each war is unique, we can distil lessons about the ongoing trends in warfighting and the employment of new and old equipment. This guest paper by Dr Viktoriya Fedorchak explores the lessons that can be learned from the land domain, focusing on the relevance for the potential Taiwan–China conflict.

Taiwan has faced threats from China for decades, but the risk of invasion has grown significantly since Xi Jinping’s rise to power. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reshaped global geopolitics, offering valuable lessons for Taiwan’s national security. These lessons, however, must be adapted to Taiwan’s unique conditions, writes guest author Dr. Jyh-Shyang Sheu, Institute for National Defence and Security Research, in this HCSS paper. 

At the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov were under firm Russian control. This narrative, however, quickly shifted, raising critical questions: How did Russia lose its maritime edge against a country with virtually no navy? How did Ukraine achieve such significant naval successes? This paper by guest author Prof. Alessio Patalano of King’s College London explores these questions and reveals how Ukraine turned the tide in the naval dimension of the conflict.

The war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of airpower in a contemporary conflict like never before. What lessons from that conflict can be learned and applied to a possible future conflict in and around the island of Taiwan? This paper by HCSS strategic advisor Peter Wijninga will focus on the lessons for airpower, be it crewed or uncrewed, and ground-based air defence.

Edited by Tim Sweijs, Saskia van Genugten, Frans Osinga, this new book published by Routledge examines the processes, practices and principles of defence planning in small and middle powers.

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Small and middle powers are recalibrating their force postures in this age of disruption. They are adapting…

War in the 21st century will remain a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. This book, edited by Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels, offers the first comprehensive update and revision of ideas about the future of war since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. World-renowned international experts from the War Studies field consider the impact of the war in Ukraine on the broader social phenomenon of war: they analyse visions of future war; examine the impact of technological innovation on its conduct; assess our ability to anticipate its future; and consider lessons learned for leaders, soldiers, strategists, scholars and concerned citizens.

The multi-domain operations concept is now guiding the transformation and modernization of Western armed forces and of their peers. Yet, there are real concerns about MDO will mature into a fully functional warfighting concept or whether it will go by the wayside like effect-based operations in the past. For nearly a year, HCSS strategic analysts Tim Sweijs and Davis Ellison visited some of the main centers for thinking on multi-domain operations, to appraise the state of multi-domain operations development with a primary question in mind: Will it actually help to win wars? If so, how?

On 27 September 2023, HCSS, in partnership with NATO Headquarters Supreme Allied Command Transformation (HQ SACT), held a day-long symposium in The Hague to discuss the topic “Rethinking Fire and Manoeuvre across physical and non-physical aspects of domains.” This conference report by Davis Ellison and Tim Sweijs offers a consolidated review of the discussions held during the seminar.

Today the dominant concept within NATO and other technologically advanced militaries is multi-domain operations (MDO). MDO aim to combine and coordinate effects from across military and sometimes non-military actions. This new HCSS study by Davis Ellison and Tim Sweijs examines how the adoption of MDO concepts can help armed forces achieve military success. The report argues that MDO could break away from the worst patterns of past conceptual work, though this will require concerted changes in prevailing approaches.

How do wars end? Tim Sweijs and Mattia Bertolini consider what we can learn from past war terminations: how long they last, how they end and factors that contribute, if they relapse and what this means for the Russia-Ukraine war.

This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated.

Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war…