Where will Europe have to defend itself? In their latest Think Tank Report, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung presents a selection of recent studies by leading think tanks, including the HCSS report “Wars to come, Europeans to act.”
Not long ago, few would have thought that we would see a war of aggression in Europe in the 21st century. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered many certitudes and has led to a fundamental reorientation of European security policy. Now that defence budgets have been increased, how should they be used? What are the threats to Europe’s security, beyond the immediate future? A study by the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has examined questions like these, conducting the largest survey of European defence experts since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
In their study, the authors of the Dutch think tank analyse where Europe is most likely to intervene militarily in the next ten years, where to expect armed conflict and instability and how European interests will be affected. For this purpose, the authors interviewed more than 80 experts from 22 countries, in addition to employing further quantitative and qualitative methods. According to the study, four global trends will shape the next ten years: an intensification of interstate strategic competition, especially between the major powers, the advancement and proliferation of new weapon technologies, political and social volatility and the effects of the climate crisis.
Read more in the HCSS study “Wars to come, Europeans to act. A multi method foresight study into Europe’s military future” by Lotje Boswinkel and Tim Sweijs, with contributions by Collin Meisel, Saskia Heyster, Daan Sanders and Stella Kim.
Source: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Think Tank Report
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