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Expert Analysis | The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were supposed to revive US manufacturing. So far they have not.

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One year after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the hoped-for revival of US manufacturing has yet to materialize, write Geoffroy Feij and Ron Stoop. Investment, construction spending, and employment all fell between April and December 2025, while production growth remained marginal. High tariffs on imports – many of which are essential intermediate goods – have raised costs for American companies without boosting output. Combined with labour shortages and policy uncertainty, these measures highlight the limits of broad import tariffs as a tool for re-industrialisation and offer cautionary lessons for Europe.

Dissertation Maarten Vonk | From Inference to Influence: Applying Causal Game Theory to Complex Security Environments

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On 26 March, former HCSS Data Scientist Maarten Vonk defended his PhD thesis at Leiden University, examining how causal analysis can better inform policy in complex security environments. His research addresses a core challenge: distinguishing true cause-and-effect relationships from mere patterns. By integrating causal methods with strategic interaction between actors, the dissertation provides a practical framework to help policymakers choose appropriate analytical tools and anticipate how adversaries may respond in dynamic, interconnected security contexts.

De Tafel van Mars | Luister vanaf 6 april naar de nieuwe podcast van Trouw en HCSS

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Luister vanaf 6 april 2026 naar De Tafel van Mars, de nieuwe tweewekelijkse podcast van Trouw en HCSS, waarin journalist Ghassan Dahhan en HCSS onderzoeksdirecteur Tim Sweijs de geopolitiek bespreken, aan de hand van geschiedenis en filosofie. Wat leren de oude verhalen ons over de wereld van vandaag, en misschien óók die van morgen?

New HCSS paper by Iskander Rehman | What the Spanish Civil War reveals about Ukraine and today’s strategic choices

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A new HCSS guest paper by Dr. Iskander Rehman examines the war in Ukraine through the lens of an oft-cited but seldom explored analogy: the Spanish Civil War. It shows how protracted proxy wars often become global testing grounds for military training and innovation, and why democracies risk falling behind if they misread or underreact. The paper outlines key lessons on escalation, military learning, and the global nature of contemporary conflict.

New paper: Making Russia Fear Escalation Again

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Russia’s hybrid war is expanding, exploiting NATO’s reluctance to escalate. Alexander Mattelaer’s latest HCSS paper argues that defensive resilience alone cannot stop Moscow. NATO must undermine the Kremlin’s confidence by demonstrating credible escalation options and reinforcing political will. “If NATO wants Moscow to back down, Russian leaders must fear escalation again,” Mattelaer warns. The paper lays out how Europe can restore strategic restraint and counter Russia’s confidence-driven hybrid strategy.

New HCSS report: Climate change is a stress test for European unity, adaptation is key to preserving EU cohesion

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While heat, drought and wildfires disproportionately affect Southern and Southeastern Europe, flooding increasingly impacts Central and Northern regions. This new HCSS report by Ron Stoop and Laura Birkman shows how uneven climate impacts risk straining EU cohesion and decision-making. As climate hazards intensify, diverging national interests could weaken Europe’s collective response capacity. The report argues that targeted adaptation, including in agriculture, infrastructure and coastal resilience, can reduce these tensions and strengthen the EU’s economic security and political stability.

Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels | Beyond Ukraine now available in paperback

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Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War, edited by Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels, is now available in paperback. The book examines how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped thinking on the future of conflict, while highlighting other critical trends in warfare. Featuring contributions from leading international experts, it offers a broad and in-depth perspective on strategy, technology, and the human dimensions of war – making it essential reading for policymakers, scholars, and military professionals alike.

Strategische Monitor Politie 2026 | De rechtsorde staat onder druk – niet incidenteel, maar structureel

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Hoe blijft de Nederlandse rechtsorde weerbaar in een tijd van geopolitieke spanning, digitale ontwrichting en maatschappelijke polarisatie? De Strategische Monitor Politie 2026 van HCSS analyseert de toenemende systemische druk op Nederland en vertaalt die naar strategische richtpunten voor de Nederlandse politie.

BNR Het Grote Plaatje | Fiona De Cuyper: Noordpool is ‘potentiële logistieke nachtmerrie’ door protectionisme en onvoorspelbaarheid

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Als het Noordpoolijs de komende decennia verder wordt teruggedrongen, kan dat grote gevolgen hebben voor de geopolitieke verhoudingen in het Arctisch gebied. Al lijkt de militair-strategische meerwaarde van een grotendeels ijsvrij Poolgebied voorlopig groter dan de economische, zegt HCSS strategisch analist Fiona De Cuyper in de BNR-podcast Het Grote Plaatje. ‘Het is niet erg realistisch om heel hard in te zetten op de economische mogelijkheden.’

Vacature: Strategisch Analist (senior)

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HCSS zoekt een Senior Strategisch Analist ter versterking van het kennisdomein internationale veiligheid en defensie. We zijn op zoek naar een ervaren onderzoeker met sterke analytische vaardigheden en expertise in bijvoorbeeld militaire strategie, afschrikking, NAVO en Europese defensie. De functie omvat het leiden van onderzoeksprojecten, het ontwikkelen van beleidsrelevante analyses en het voeren van gesprekken met strategische besluitvormers. Kandidaten hebben minimaal 6–8 jaar relevante werkervaring en beheersen Nederlands en Engels uitstekend. Solliciteren kan tot 15 april 2026.

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