Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Europe’s Role in Promoting US-China Arms Control Cooperation

21 Feb 2022

Europeans could play the role of “honest broker” and promote potential cooperation on arms control between the US and China, Tong Zhao (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) argues in his paper.

Practices, Principles and Promises of Conflict Early Warning Systems

21 Feb 2022

This report explores various options for the development of a Conflict Early Warning System (CEWS) that can immediately flag countries or regions that face imminent emerging conflict, support strategic and programmatic planning and enhance conflict analysis. It analyses the practices, principles and promises of EW based on a review of academic literature; an analysis of a set of CEWS currently deployed by governments, international organisations, non-governmental organisations, research institutes and expert analysis. It reflects on opportunities and limitations and outlines risks.

WPS paper: Water challenges and conflict dynamics in Southern Iraq

18 Feb 2022

Iraq faces an increasingly dire water situation as both the quantity and quality of water continue to decline, impacting the complex dynamics between actors within Iraq’s borders, at the federal, provincial, and local levels. The aim of this study is to shed light on the link between water and conflict in Iraq at the interprovincial, provincial, and local levels in the provinces Basra, Missan, Dhi Qar, and Wasit in the south of Iraq.

Guarding the Maritime Commons - Executive Summary

17 Feb 2022

What role should Europe play in the Indo-Pacific? The new HCSS report “Guarding the Maritime Commons: What role for Europe in the Indo-Pacific" by Paul van Hooft, Benedetta Girardi, and Tim Sweijs looks to answer that question. Get a first look with this Executive Summary.

European Engagement in the Maritime Security in Indo-Pacific: a Japanese Perspective

17 Feb 2022

With increasing pressure from China in the East China Sea, Japan welcomes greater European enagement in the Indo-Pacific. Yuki Tatsumi argues that Japan considers Europe a diplomatic and strategic partner to help maintain a value-based liberal international order in the Indo-Pacific region.

Between AUKUS and the Quad: Scaling European Interest in the Indo-Pacific

15 Feb 2022

The AUKUS pact casts serious doubts within Europe over the US’ leadership. Relying on traditional partners, namely the US and the UK, does not seem feasible for the EU’s approach towards powers in the Indo-Pacific, Jagannath Panda (Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses) writes in the 2nd paper for the HCSS Guarding the Commons series.

Shifting Sands of Strategic Stability: Towards A New Arms Control Agenda

15 Feb 2022

Renewed competition, nuclear multipolarity and the emergence of new technologies are making deliberate and inadvertent nuclear escalation increasingly likely. This new HCSS report by Paul van Hooft, Lotje Boswinkel and Tim Sweijs identifies both the risks and potential solutions.

Real and Imagined Challenges to Strategic Stability

14 Feb 2022

Strategic stability has come under pressure from a shifting military and political environment: the number of major strategic actors has increased; missile defense has evolved; and the battlefield has expanded. Nuclear arsenals are being increased and diversified. Yet, as Bruno Tertrais (Foundation for Strategic Research) argues, warnings that we have entered into a new arms race should be viewed with caution.

Thucydides Lives in Asia: Power Transition Traps Are Real

10 Feb 2022

The Thucydides trap, which suggests that rising and declining powers are destined for conflict, has been dismissed as irrelevant to the Sino-American competition. However, in his careful reading of Thucydides’ text, Patrick Porter argues that the power transition trap is in fact real and has major implications for the current rivalry between the US and China.

Hard Times For Arms Control: What Can Be Done?

9 Feb 2022

The world has grown more dangerous but also less open to arms control measures that could limit some of the dangers. What can be done? Steven E. Miller (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) offers a tour de force overview of both dismal and hopeful trends within arms control over the past decades, in this first paper of a new HCSS series on Arms Control.

Machtsbalanspolitiek en de toekomst van NAVO en EU

31 Jan 2022

Dat geopolitieke veranderingen een koerswijziging eisen wordt inmiddels breed erkend. Maar hoe die koerswijzigingen eruit moet zien, en welke rol de NAVO en de EU daarin moeten spelen is minder duidelijk. Deze HCSS paper levert een bijdrage aan de discussie door aan te geven hoe de NAVO en de EU zich tot elkaar kunnen verhouden en welke initiatieven kunnen worden genomen die de Nederlandse belangen dienen.

De Tweede Hoofdtaak tot 2035

26 Jan 2022

In het kader van de krijgsmachtontwikkeling heeft Defensie behoefte aan inzicht in hoe de invulling van de tweede hoofdtaak er de komende 15 jaar uit zal zien. Daarbij wordt gekeken naar wat deze hoofdtaak feitelijk is, de gewijzigde context waarin deze moet worden uitgevoerd en de toekomstige zwaartepunten voor de inzet.

Strengthening deterrence against nuclear, conventional, and hybrid threats: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Insights for US Allies in Europe and Asia

20 Jan 2022

European and Asian allies of the US are increasingly under pressure from Russia and China. In both regions, small and middle powers face a revisionist and assertive nuclear-armed military power in possession of regional power projection capabilities. What could lead to a breakdown of deterrence between the US and small and middle powers in Europe and Asia?

Deterrence and War Initiation Decisions

18 Jan 2022

Deterrence scholars stress military imbalances as a major cause of interstate war. According to Dr. Jeffrey H. Michaels they underplay the complex motives for why states decide to go to war or are self-deterred from it. Deterrence effectiveness requires more understanding of these motives.

A youth perspective on tackling Water-Food-Energy nexus challenges

18 Jan 2022

During the Expo 2020 in Dubai, young participants of the Water Energy Food (WEF) game developed by HCSS will discuss practical solutions for water, energy and food challenges with governmental leaders. Read their recommendations now.

Deterrence in the Baltic Sea Region – a View from Poland

13 Jan 2022

How NATO can deter Russia from provoking a military confrontation with the Alliance? Wojciech Lorenz (Polish Institute of International Affairs) covers deterrence in the Baltic Sea Region from a Polish view. This is the 4th short paper in a new HCSS series on deterrence.

Maintaining NATO’s Technological Edge

12 Jan 2022

HCSS Director of Research Tim Sweijs and Professor Dr. Frans Osinga, Special Chair in War Studies, Leiden University, have contributed a chapter to RUSI’s Whitehall Paper publication “Future NATO”. In their chapter, the authors note that maintaining NATO’s technological edge requires much higher investments in areas such as cyber defense, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems and space capabilities.

Strengthening Taiwan’s integrated deterrence posture: Challenges and Solutions

11 Jan 2022

In contrast to a few of the other papers in the series, Jyun-yi Lee (INDSR) concludes that China’s threat to Taiwan is primarily political in nature. The deterrence posture cannot simply be viewed from a military lens, though an advantageous geographic position and US security commitment play a role. China seeks political reunification, not conquest.

Raising the Costs of Access: active denial strategies by small and middle powers against revisionist aggression

24 Dec 2021

What strategies are available to small and middle powers in Europe and Asia to deter the increasing threat from Russia and China? According to Paul van Hooft, Nora Nijboer and Tim Sweijs, investing in conventional deterrence, specifically active denial strategies, is the more feasible route for these states. This is the 2nd paper of a new HCSS series on deterrence.

HCSS Annual Report 2021

23 Dec 2021

As we find ourselves on the threshold of 2022, it is time to assess some of the transitions that are reshaping our geopolitical order. This Annual Report contains food for thought, as we focus on some of 2021’s highlights and on future developments in the world. This can help us to look ahead to a brighter future beyond the gloom of the daily headlines.

Pick Your Poison: Comparing the Deterrence Problem in Asia and Europe

22 Dec 2021

How do the challenges to deterrence in Europe and Asia compare? Eric Heginbotham and Dick Samuels summarize the problems these regions face in the first short paper of a new HCSS series on deterrence.

Western Proxies Through Russian Eyes

21 Dec 2021

In recent years it seems Russian attempts to undermine Western political, economic and societal structures. How does Russia think that the West tries to influence Russia through proxies? And who are the perpetrators according to Russia? In other words, who is ‘the West’?

Snapshot: Did AUKUS Torpedo Transatlantic Cooperation In The Indo-Pacific?

16 Dec 2021

The creation of AUKUS has brought to the surface a worrying rift between Europe and the US. What does this mean for the future of transatlantic cooperation? This snapshot by Benedetta Girardi and Paul van Hooft explores the many ways in which the creation of AUKUS affected European engagement in one of the most important regions in the world, the Indo-Pacific.

Forum: The Future of European Strategy in a Changing Geopolitical Environment

15 Dec 2021

Europe’s geopolitical environment is evolving. In response, the EU is inclined to pursue a more independent and assertive international role, but many questions remain about the future of European strategy. In this forum, thirteen scholars, from a wide variety of national and disciplinary backgrounds, address key challenges for European strategy, including in the areas of defense, trade, international norms, energy diversification, and relations with other major powers.

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