Author Archive for: Stephanie Govaerts

Entries by Stephanie Govaerts

Expert Analysis | Europe’s Regulatory Power Needs a Geopolitical Strategy

As global competition intensifies over technology standards, supply chains, and digital governance, the European Union finds itself in a paradoxical position: it remains the world’s most influential regulatory power, yet continues to treat this influence largely as a by-product of governance rather than a tool of geopolitical strategy. While Brussels has successfully exported its rules across areas such as data protection, sustainability, and competition policy, other major powers are increasingly leveraging regulatory frameworks and standard-setting processes as instruments of statecraft. Drawing on China’s strategic use of legal and regulatory influence, Benedetta Girardi argues that the EU must begin viewing its regulatory power as a geopolitical asset if it wants to preserve and advance its position in an increasingly contested international order.

New publication | No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties

What determines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) can reduce casualties in intrastate conflicts? In the newly published master’s thesis, HCSS Data Scientist Emma Bokel examines 156 countries between 1989 and 2022 using Dynamic Panel GMM and a Causal Forest model to assess both average effects and underlying heterogeneity. The study finds that ODA does not reliably reduce conflict deaths on average, with a persistent “conflict trap” driven by prior-year fatalities. Instead, effectiveness depends on four key conditions: political stability, aid fragmentation, delivery channel, and purpose-specific aid dynamics, leading to policy recommendations emphasising context-sensitive allocation, multilateral delivery in fragile settings, and prevention over de-escalation.

Irina Patrahau | ARES Group on defence supply chain monitoring

Rising military tensions, trade disputes, and shifting global power dynamics are increasing pressure on defence supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities ranging from critical raw material shortages to restrictions on strategic components. In a recent commentary for the ARES Group, Irina Patrahau argues that the growing emphasis on supply chain monitoring presents an opportunity not only to strengthen security and resilience, but also to improve sustainability reporting.

Two internship positions are open for applications!

HCSS is looking for new interns for two different internship positions! We’re looking for general interns and a Water, Peace and Security (WPS) intern. Read to find out more on previous intern experiences and how to apply.

HCSS experts Laura Jasper and Paul Verhagen to speak at JASON Institute panel on AI and non-state actors

On 24 June, HCSS Strategic Analyst Laura Jasper and HCSS Senior Fellow Paul Verhagen will speak at the JASON Institute panel discussion “Beyond the State: How AI levels the battlefield for non-state actors”. The event will examine how artificial intelligence is shaping the capabilities of non-state actors, affecting conflict dynamics, and influencing the wider international security landscape. Make sure to register to secure your spot!

HCSS partners with the 4th Sarajevo Security Conference

HCSS is pleased to once again partner with the Sarajevo Security Conference, taking place from 4-6 September, 2026 under the theme “Securing Europe in a Divided World”. Last year HCSS Deputy Director Michel Rademaker spoke at the Conference as the featured speaker and moderator on the panel: “AI in the Military Domain: Legal, Industry, and Practitioner Perspectives”. This year our Strategic Analysts Dr. Davis Ellison and Hans Horan will be speaking at a panel on Russian sub-threshold threats. More information to follow soon.

Internship opportunity | HCSS General Internship

Now open for applications: the HCSS General Internship offers students a unique opportunity to gain hands-on experience at the forefront of security, defence, and geopolitical research. Interns work alongside researchers as full team members, contributing to projects through analysis, writing, data collection, and event support. Based in The Hague, the six-month paid internship provides valuable professional experience, networking opportunities, and insight into policy-relevant research in an international and fast-paced environment. Applications close on 5 July 2026.

New Snapshot | Bridge Over Troubled Water: Towards Effective EU Engagement in the Transboundary Politics of the Nile River Basin

Since the project’s inception in 2011, tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have heightening the risk of conflict and instability in regions of vital strategic importance for the European Union. However, the EU’s ability to ease transboundary tensions in the Nile River Basin remains limited. This snapshot by assistant analyst Michelle Reitano explores how the EU can become a more effective player in the GERD dispute and proposes three strategic outlooks.

New paper| Intersecting Futures: Global Trends Shaping and Shaped by Climate Change over the Next Century

Climate change is reshaping global power, security, and economic stability. In Intersecting Futures, Thijs van Aken and Laura Birkman examine how climate impacts will interact with geopolitical, economic, and societal trends through 2100. The paper shows why adaptation capacity will determine future winners and losers – and why faster, coordinated action is essential. “Climate change will define not just environmental outcomes, but the balance of power in the 21st century,” Van Aken and Birkman warn. “Policymakers must treat adaptation as a strategic priority now, not a future concern.”

The HCSS Datalab launches: Critical Raw Materials Tracking Application (CARTA)

Critical Raw Materials (CRM) are used across the vital sectors of the global economy and society including clean energy, digital technology, healthcare, defence and space. The CRM Tracking Application (CARTA) provides information about the geographical spread of resources, reserves, extraction and processing capabilities for a wide range of raw materials. The dashboard displays the materials included in the 2023 EU Critical Raw Materials list as well as other non-energy and non-animal raw materials that are important for the above-mentioned sectors.

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