Entries by Patrick Willemsen

HCSS Datalab paper| Disentangling causality: assumptions in causal discovery and inference

Causality has been a burgeoning field, but for researchers it has been difficult to discern the assumptions they have to abide by in order to glean sound conclusions from causal concepts or methods. In an article published in the Journal of Artificial Intelligence Review, HCSS data scientists Maarten Vonk and Nino Malekovic, together with Thomas Bäck and Anna Kononova of the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), aim to disambiguate the different causal concepts that have emerged in causal inference and causal discovery from observational data by attributing them to different levels of Pearl’s Causal Hierarchy.

Friso Stevens | Deconstructing a more assertive China: How did its foreign policy change?

Since 2009-2010, the West viewed China as more assertive. Especially after Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the country abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s ‘low profile’ foreign policy. Friso Stevens explains in his dissertation where this change has come from.

New CSP Journal article | Beyond deterrence: Reconceptualizing denial strategies and rethinking their emotional effects

Western strategic thought about denial strategies and their effects is conceptually muddled. In a new article in Contemporary Security Policy (CSP), Tim Sweijs and Samuel Zilincik try to reconceptualize denial and rethink its emotional effects. The authors argue that the expansion of military domains and the renewed emphasis on multi-domain coercion requires us to reconsider the utility of denial strategies with a pair of fresh eyes.

De Strateeg | Strategische Vragen: Kan China zich een grote oorlog wel permitteren?

Amerika, Europa en China zijn de grote machtsblokken van dit moment. Maar wat te denken van Rusland als kernmacht en opkomende landen zoals India? Duidelijk is dat we tegenwoordig in een multipolaire wereld leven. Maar hoe verhouden al die machtsblokken zich tot elkaar? Paul van Liempt bespreekt het in extra ‘De Strateeg’ op BNR met hoogleraar Mathieu Segers en oud-ambassadeur Renée Jones-Bos.

Column Nieuwe Oogst: ‘Landbouw mag niet lijden onder desinteresse in technologie’

‘Voor wat hoort wat.’ Wij sturen landbouwproducten naar China en wij krijgen hun grondstoffen zoals zeldzame aardmetalen waar bijvoorbeeld chips mee geproduceerd kunnen worden, schrijft Rob de Wijk in zijn column voor Nieuwe Oogst. Want China kan zijn eigen bevolking niet voeden. Maar in Frankrijk is er nauwelijks bereidheid van boeren om innovatievere technologie te omarmen,

Nature-based Solutions for Water and Peace | UN Water Week 2023

Do you want to know how we can turn the tide and restore the water-cycle in a conflict affected area? The Weather Makers, in collaboration with HCSS, Anthesis and Tamatta, will host a presentation and panel discussion on the topic of Nature-based Solutions for Water and Peace at the UN 2023 Water Conference. This side event uses a practical and well-researched case-study for the Sinai Peninsula to demonstrate how we can turn the tide of soil degradation and water scarcity while taking into account the social, economic, political and security dynamics of a region.

New report: The Seven Sins of Deterrence Assessment

Do NATO’s deterrence policies really have an impact on Russian behaviour? Deterrence policies have gained renewed interest amongst policymakers and military strategists alike, driving the need for robust assessments and evaluation of deterrence strategies. This new study by Tim Sweijs and Mattia Bertolini identifies seven sins of deterrence assessments and offers clear guidelines on how to address them.