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July 22 was the hottest day ever recorded by humans and it fell during the second consecutive hottest a (northern hemisphere) summer on record. This unprecedented heat has heightened the likelihood of water-related violent conflict and humanitarian crises, according to the latest analysis from the Water Peace and Security Partnership’s Global Early Warning Tool.
The conflict in Ukraine is showing the world a lot about the future of warfare, and it’s not all satellites and AI, HCSS director of research Tim Sweijs told students and faculty during a recent Georgia Tech visit. “The war in Ukraine has punctured the visions that portray future wars as being hybrid, liminal, or gray-zoned,” Sweijs said, referring to conflicts that fall in between peace and warfare. “We’re seeing over the past 30 months is a war of attrition with large armies stretched out over hundreds and hundreds of kilometers of battlefront.” The talk was part of a series hosted by the Nunn School of International Affairs focusing on the intersection of emerging technologies and their implications for conflict and statecraft.
Wie niet begrijpt hoe internationale politiek werkt, in het bijzonder de EU, weet niet dat de gunfactor belangrijk is, schrijft Rob de Wijk in zijn nieuwste column in Trouw. Wie alleen maar komt halen, niets brengt en alleen de kont tegen de krib gooit, is in het buitenland, inclusief Brussel, snel klaar. Degenen die in Nederland denken dat je in Brussel van alles kunt eisen, zonder er iets voor terug te geven, doen er goed aan de premier van het sinds de brexit onafhankelijke Britse Rijk eens naar zijn ervaringen te vragen.
Organized Crime groups in Mexico have been steadily integrating Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, aka drones, into their criminal operations. This new HCSS snapshot by Giulio Damiani and Laura Jasper analyses how UAVs have impacted three operational dimensions: trafficking of illicit goods, the surveillance of rival territory, and the coercion of groups who attempt to resist OCG violence. The snapshot also looks at the inherent risks of this emerging phenomenon in a European context: what can European states and law enforcement learn from understanding the criminal use of drones by organised crime groups in Mexico for the security of our own airspace?
“The need for affordable energy should be priority number one. Energy-intensive industries face a structural issue that is at the core of the non-level playing field internationally, which is the high energy costs.” For the 9th instalment of our Draghi Report Series, we asked Lucia van Geuns, Ron Stoop, and Berend Kwak for their take on the report’s section on Energy-Intensive Industries. “The additional problem for the EU is the overregulation of these industries. The amount of bureaucracy they face is hurting their competitiveness just as much as high costs.”
De vermindering van de landbouwopbrengsten ondermijnt het streven naar strategische autonomie in Europa, schrijft Rob de Wijk in zijn column voor Nieuwe Oogst. Als we niet te veel afhankelijk willen worden van landen en leiders waar we niet van houden, dan zullen we ons voedsel zoveel mogelijk zelf moeten produceren.
Het Draghi rapport is dan wel een wake-up call, de vraag blijft of Europa niet gewoon stoïcijns op de snooze-knop zal drukken en het probleem vooruit zal schuiven. Paul van Liempt praat erover met HCSS analist Ron Stoop en CDA Europarlementariër Tom Berendsen in podcast De Strateeg op BNR.
Strategie is de bepalende factor in elke oorlog: als je niet weet hoe je welke politieke doelstellingen met welke militaire middelen wilt bereiken, dan is de kans op succes klein, schrijft Rob de Wijk in zijn column voor Trouw. Het is onduidelijk hoe Rusland, Israël en Iran denken te winnen. Er zijn daar ego’s aan de macht die niet zwak willen overkomen en zo een onbeheersbare escalatie riskeren waar ze zelf het slachtoffer van kunnen worden.
Met welke wapens bevechten we elkaar in 2050? Houden we beheersing over de drones die we nu zelf sturen, of beslissen die straks op eigen houtje? Blijven oorlogen gaan over veiligheid, macht, welvaart en botsing tussen ideologieën? “Oorlog voeren hoort bij de mens, dat is een gegeven,” stelt Tim Sweijs in gesprek met Paul van Liempt in deze nieuwe aflevering van Nieuwe Ankers, waarin hij ook reflecteert op de positie van de grootmachten, in het bijzonder op Amerika.
“The barriers to entry for clean tech companies in Europe are incredibly high. They compete on a global market with companies that have much lower operational costs or that receive governmental subsidies.” Next in our HCSS Draghi Report Series: Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop and Berend Kwak present their take on the report’s section on Clean Technologies. “The problems the EU faces on the clean technology front are first and foremost political.”
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