New Paper | Uncovering the Climate–Conflict Link: Mapping the Causal Pathways in Iraq
Environmental conditions like drought, heat, and soil stress are increasingly linked to armed conflict, but the exact pathways remain unclear. In a new study, Ninoslav Malekovic, Maarten Vonk, Laura Birkman, and Tim Sweijs use advanced causal analysis on Iraqi subdistricts to reveal how these conditions—especially when paired with high energy demand and dense populations—can drive violence through complex chains of resource and demographic pressure. Their findings highlight where and why conflict is more likely, offering a foundation for targeted interventions to prevent violence before it unfolds.
