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Stephanie Govaerts2026-07-17 10:00:002026-07-16 13:45:09New Report | GENOME: A New Geopolitical Event Methodology and Dataset using Large Language ModelsStrategic decision-making is inherently subject to significant risk. Uncertainty makes it difficult to engage in long-term decision making, preventing you from taking bold action and realising your desired impact or potential. Within the HCSS Datalab we model complex phenomena, quantify and compare the impact of decisions, to provide insights into such risk. This allows us to gain a better understanding into the everchanging world of geopolitics, defence, and security. Using data and in-depth subject matter knowledge we can help to enhance decision-making and better communicate stories to in turn reach the desired audiences.
Methods
Natural Language Processing
– We turn text into insight
Every day we collect and analyse large volumes of textual data at scale, from news and policy documents to speeches and reports, extracting patterns, signals and narratives that no single analyst could hold in view at once. Using NLP and generative AI, we map the lay of the land across strategic landscapes and scan the horizon for themes just beginning to surface. Those findings feed personalised intelligence reports, tailored to a specific question, region or portfolio, so that analysis reaches decision-makers in the form they actually need.

Surveying
– We measure attitudes at scale
We design and run large, representative, longitudinal population surveys that capture public attitudes, perceptions and trends across society. Fielded several times a year, they have built up one of the largest collections of Dutch population-survey data in the Netherlands and Europe, and provide a robust empirical foundation for tracking societal dynamics over time. The results inform our analyses, validate assumptions and ground strategic research in lived public experience.
Modelling
– We model complex landscapes
We build digital representations of geopolitical, security and economic environments to understand how actors, systems and dynamics interact. By combining network analysis, systems thinking and agent-based modelling, we explore scenarios, test assumptions and support decision-making under uncertainty. This includes generative agent-based modelling, in which populations of AI-driven agents reason, adapt and interact rather than follow fixed rules. These models translate complex realities into structured insights for analysis, policy discussions and serious games.

Products
Research as a Product
– We turn quant to qual insights
We treat reports as carefully designed products that translate quantitative research into clear, qualitative insight that is credible, interpretable, and policy or scientifically relevant. By combining quantitative analysis with qualitative interpretation and contextualization, we produce publications that go beyond presenting results: they explain meaning, surface implications, and structure strategic or scientific debate.
Tool as a Product
– We build end-to-end solutions
We design, build, and maintain secure digital tools and platforms that support analysis, collaboration, and decision-making from start to finish. These tools are developed as reusable products rather than one-off project artefacts, and are actively adopted through onboarding, integration into workflows, and clear value propositions. This allows analytical insights to scale beyond individual projects and reach a broader set of users.
Data as a Product
– We provide datasets
We create, enrich, and publish high-quality datasets as first-class products, designed for reuse by researchers, policymakers, and partners. By combining original data collection, enrichment, and transparent documentation, we make HCSS-owned data accessible through a publicly available APIs, following examples such as ACLED (operational) and POLECAT (terminated). This approach turns data into a durable asset that enables external research and collaboration with third parties.
Datalab | News & events
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-07-17 10:00:002026-07-16 13:45:09New Report | GENOME: A New Geopolitical Event Methodology and Dataset using Large Language Models
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-07-13 10:00:002026-06-29 10:54:43HCSS is hiring: Data Scientist & Software Developer (Junior)
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-06-29 10:50:192026-06-29 10:50:21HCSS is hiring: Data Scientist & Software Developer (Junior)
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-06-25 15:18:232026-06-25 16:02:32Tweede World Trade Day | Verschuivende machtsblokken zorgt voor nieuwe realiteit voor Europa
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-06-24 10:00:002026-06-23 11:47:03New publication | No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-06-10 08:30:332026-06-10 08:56:24Expert Analysis | Defence Burden Sharing in Europe: A Burden in Itself
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-06-04 10:46:432026-06-04 10:46:45WTC 2026 Geopolitical Update | launch second edition of GATRI
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-04-07 14:25:002026-04-23 16:54:18HCSS Datalab Internship Deadline extended! (Open until 30 April)
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2026-03-31 15:00:002026-04-01 14:03:07Dissertation Maarten Vonk | From Inference to Influence: Applying Causal Game Theory to Complex Security Environments
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-03-20 09:30:002026-07-09 10:50:00Alessandro Dell’Orto on working in the Datalab, collaborative research and building his academic path
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-03-12 15:46:212026-04-23 16:55:02HCSS Datalab Internship (start May-June 2026 / Open until April)
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-03-11 11:37:542026-03-11 14:21:16The HCSS Datalab launches: Chinese Latent Activity and Related Interference Scanner (CLARIS)
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-02-06 11:00:492026-02-06 11:11:12The HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Information 2.0
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-23 15:33:292026-02-06 16:26:04Webinar to Meet GINA 2.0 | Next-Generation Data-Driven Geopolitics
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-21 10:34:512026-01-21 10:36:20The HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Military 2.0
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-14 22:00:002026-01-21 10:34:35The HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Economic 2.0
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-13 10:05:462026-02-03 15:45:14New Report: Responding to China’s Hybrid Threats: Strategic Postures for Small and Middle Powers
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-07 14:45:462026-01-15 14:39:13The HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Diplomatic 2.0
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-12-19 12:00:002026-01-09 13:02:37HCSS Annual Report | A Look Back at 2025 with Director of Research Dr. Tim Sweijs
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-12-01 16:44:202025-12-01 16:46:28The HCSS Datalab presents: DOMINO, the Dutch Observer for Materials Intelligence and Operations
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-10-27 12:33:242025-10-28 17:41:03Rens van Dam joins HCSS as new Research Scientist!
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-10-20 09:30:002025-10-27 15:39:53Nidas Brandsma joins HCSS as new Data Scientist!
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-10-17 11:23:002025-10-17 11:23:34The HCSS Datalab presents: CARMEN, the Critical Raw Materials Early Navigation Dashboard
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-07-24 10:41:572025-07-24 10:41:59Job Opening: Data Scientist & Software Developer (Junior) (OPEN)
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-07-17 16:12:442025-08-20 09:42:26New Paper | Uncovering the Climate–Conflict Link: Mapping the Causal Pathways in Iraq
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-07-10 09:00:002025-10-28 12:03:06GATRI | International trade under pressure in times of geopolitical unrest: how can companies better prepare for global uncertainty?
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-06-13 14:45:342025-10-28 12:03:27GATRI | Internationale handel onder druk in tijden van geopolitieke onzekerheid
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-06-13 11:58:002025-10-28 12:03:47GATRI | New risk index helps businesses navigate geopolitical trade uncertainty
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Patrick Willemsen2025-06-02 11:30:002025-10-28 12:02:42The HCSS Datalab presents: GATRI, the Geopolitical Annual Trade Risk Index
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-05-22 12:51:322026-07-09 10:49:35Oscar Lodeizen on dashboards, AI, and all things data
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-05-21 11:10:262025-06-30 14:21:00World Trade Day | Geopolitical Update met Rob de Wijk
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Britt de Cuijper
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Britt de Cuijper2025-05-07 10:13:052025-05-07 10:13:41HCSS Datalab Internship (Summer 2025 OPEN)
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-04-07 22:40:002025-09-26 14:30:12The HCSS Datalab presents: the Nuclear Timeline
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-01-08 12:14:212025-01-08 12:14:22Job Opening: Data Scientist & Software Developer (Junior) (OPEN)
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Stephanie Govaerts2024-12-23 11:32:272026-07-09 10:49:19Emma Bokel on her time as a Datalab intern, leveraging data science for public policy and discovering her career path
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-12-13 13:15:002026-01-07 13:31:01The HCSS Datalab presents: The Agrifood Monitor
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Stephanie Govaerts2024-12-05 15:04:472024-12-05 15:06:05Datalab internship opportunity at HCSS
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-10-21 08:59:002025-10-23 12:35:02HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Information
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Stephanie Govaerts2024-08-27 15:36:072024-10-03 10:04:54HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Military
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Patrick Willemsen2024-08-21 10:40:002024-08-22 09:08:02Internship opportunity at the HCSS Datalab
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-07-30 11:53:112024-07-30 13:49:52IPMU2024 | HCSS data scientist Maarten Vonk presents paper on Optimizing Causal Interventions in Hybrid Bayesian Networks
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-07-18 15:00:002024-10-03 10:05:04HCSS Datalab presents: GINA Economic
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Stephanie Govaerts2024-07-08 09:00:002026-07-09 10:49:03Arne Eichholtz on his time as a Datalab intern and finding the perfect place to combine his technical background in a policy setting
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-06-21 11:22:272024-06-21 11:22:58Maarten Vonk at EnPax: 3rd International Conference on Environmental Peacebuilding
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-06-12 11:08:282025-10-23 12:49:39Meet GINA! HCSS Datalab presents: the Geopolitical Interactive Network Analysis
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-04-29 15:00:202024-04-30 11:32:33ICMCIS presentation by Maarten Vonk: A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling
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Stephanie Govaerts2024-04-23 10:38:552024-04-23 10:49:13HCSS is hiring an NLP-Datalab Intern!
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-12-24 10:00:002024-02-01 10:19:18HCSS Annual Report | The HCSS Datalab
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-12-21 13:54:292023-12-21 15:00:42HCSS Annual Report 2023
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-10-25 11:55:002023-10-27 09:43:32Internship opportunity: join the HCSS Datalab
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-08-24 14:18:082024-02-01 10:16:52WPS Quarterly Update | Droughts, floods and heat contribute to conflict risk in Africa, the Middle East and Asia
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login@hcss-site
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login@hcss-site2023-08-17 15:50:262026-07-09 10:48:44Inês Lains on bridging quantitative and qualitative research and her time as an Data Intern
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-08-15 09:02:322023-08-16 15:48:19Internship opportunity at the HCSS Datalab (Sept/Oct 2023 starting date)
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-07-11 08:39:192023-11-28 13:34:04The Hague Mayor Mr. Jan van Zanen visits HCSS
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-05-09 13:00:002024-02-01 10:19:27Thesis project | Catching the trigger? Predicting interstate conflict
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-03-22 08:53:172023-03-22 09:08:45HCSS Datalab paper| Disentangling causality: assumptions in causal discovery and inference
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-01-31 10:04:302023-01-31 10:13:31HCSS Internship Program: Data Intern
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2022-07-01 08:45:002022-07-12 15:06:12Internship opportunity: HCSS Datalab
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2022-05-05 16:11:322022-07-12 15:05:59HCSS is hiring | Interactive Monitor DeveloperHCSS Datalab Team

Jesse Kommandeur

Rens van Dam

Emma Bokel

Nidas Brandsma
Datalab | Featured Research
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-07-17 10:00:002026-07-20 11:32:11GENOME: A New Geopolitical Event Methodology and Dataset using Large Language Models
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-06-24 10:00:002026-07-09 14:07:02No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2026-01-13 10:05:232026-06-30 14:21:39Responding to China’s Hybrid Threats: Strategic Postures for Small and Middle Powers
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-07-17 14:05:372025-09-15 11:13:56Uncovering the Climate – Conflict Link: Mapping the Causal Pathways in Iraq
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Stephanie Govaerts
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Stephanie Govaerts2025-05-09 16:14:232025-05-13 10:36:54Hybrid threat modeling
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2025-04-16 12:09:012025-04-16 12:09:03A Militarily Regenerated Russia as a Future Threat to NATO? Perspectives from Russia Itself
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-08-15 10:00:002024-09-09 08:39:07Optimizing Causal Interventions in Hybrid Bayesian Networks
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-01-29 10:55:002025-01-21 13:58:16Cyber Arms Watch Methodology
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2024-01-16 09:02:012025-01-21 13:59:08Cyber Transparency Value Chain: From Awareness and Understanding to Attribution, Monitoring and Sanctioning
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-11-14 08:30:002024-02-01 10:17:05Start with the End: Effect Measurement of Behavioural Influencing in Military Operations
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2023-03-22 08:15:002025-02-07 13:34:10Disentangling causality: assumptions in causal discovery and inference
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Patrick Willemsen
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Patrick Willemsen2022-06-08 12:01:592024-02-01 10:16:36Not When But Why | Embedding Causal Methods in Policy and Programming
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paula@hcss-site
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paula@hcss-site2020-01-24 11:01:002024-02-01 10:18:11The Evolving Position of the Netherlands in the World
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paula@hcss-site
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paula@hcss-site2020-01-24 11:00:002024-02-01 10:17:59Methodological Note – The Dutch Foreign Relations Index: Version 2
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paula@hcss-site
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paula@hcss-site2017-10-19 07:00:002024-09-20 14:29:52Monthly alert: Dutch Foreign Relations Index
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paula@hcss-site
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paula@hcss-site2009-06-01 10:00:002024-11-14 15:43:02Future Issue: Biometrics
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paula@hcss-site
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paula@hcss-site2006-07-01 10:00:002024-05-28 14:46:10Denk- en datamodel Suspicious Signs
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