Is Taiwan still defendable? Why does climate change call for innovative military contributions and collaboration? Will the gas price go down now that Gazprom is supplying more gas to Europe? The answer to all you questions? The new HCSS Digest!
Ingen diskussion pågår i dag inom EU hur man skulle agera om Kina attackerar Taiwan. Skulle man svara när USA ber om hjälp? If you want to brush up on your Swedish, the highly praised op-ed “If China Attacks Taiwan, What Will Europe Do?” by Joris Teer and Tim Sweijs was also published in the Swedish Kinamedia this week.
Incidentally, The China Times, a daily Chinese-language newspaper and one of the four largest newspapers in Taiwan, also took an interest in the questions raised by Teer and Sweijs.
Is Taiwan still defendable? Boekestijn & De Wijk talk to HCSS analyst Joris Teer about the rising tensions around Taiwan, the risk of war between the US and China, the forgotten logic of nuclear deterrence and the unprepared EU (and the Netherlands) for this scenario.
COP26 & Climate Security
Listen to a special climate edition of BNR De Wereld from the campus of Wageningen University, with guests Tom Middendorp, chairman of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), about the disruptive effects that climate change can have on security in some parts of the world , and HCSS energy expert Jilles van den Beukel, about finding a good balance between fossil and sustainable energy in the short term.
Spurred on by the climate summit in Glasgow, two visions are now colliding, Rob de Wijk writes in his column for Energiepodium: one is propagated by idealists such as Thunberg, the other is that of the realists.
Truly great leaders have a vision and lead their country into the future. That’s called statesmanship. For China, geopolitics and climate are linked. But unfortunately identity politics and sovereignty take precedence over vision and general interest in almost all Western democracies, Rob de Wijk observes in his column in Trouw.
Defense & International Security
What will the battlescape of war in the city look like? At the Urban Warfare conference hosted by NATO’s Headquarters Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (HQ ARRC) on Nov. 3rd, HCSS Director of Research Dr. Tim Sweijs chaired the final round table on urban warfare.
The HCSS documentary “Robotisering bij de Nederlandse Landmacht” about robotics and autonomous systems in the Dutch army, released this March, has been nominated for a Gouden Reiger Award for best commissioned film of the year! The winner will be announced on November 15th during a red carpet event in Utrecht.
We are now at 1.4 percent, which is really too little to meet our alliance obligations, but also our national obligations, says HCSS defense expert Peter Wijninga at BNR Nieuwsradio. With an investment of four billion, Defense can do a lot.
It is essential to have the debate on the future of Europe’s defense now, HCSS subject matter expert Friso Stevens writes in his blog for Leiden Institute of Security and Global Affairs. A Dutch and European military strategy is crucial, something that HCSS senior strategic analyst Paul van Hooft already called for in 2015. Without a clear picture of Dutch and European long-term interests and gearing the development of defense capabilities toward 2035 to this end, Europe cannot possibly achieve its desired ‘strategic autonomy.’
Many activities that are vital to the Dutch economy take place on the North Sea. These will expand further towards 2050. How can we guarantee the security of at sea critical infrastructure? Find out in next week’s new HCSS North Sea Report!
Last week, HCSS hosted a virtual panel discussion on “Advancing Norms to Counter Disinformation”, with a video address from Věra Jourová, Vice President of the European Commission for Values and Transparency. Moderated by Louk Faesen, the event brought together European stakeholders from government, industry and civil society.
The Ninth meeting of the Sino-European Cyber Dialogue (SECD) was convened in a hybrid format on 12 – 13 Oct. in Berlin. The meeting was hosted by HCSS and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office. The 9th meeting represented an important milestone as the longest-running track-2 meeting format on cyber policy worldwide, which has traditionally built on the strong multilateral engagement of governments.
On 28 Oct., the Council of the EU Horizontal Working Party on Enhancing Resilience and Countering Hybrid Threats, hosted a meeting during which Louk Faesen presented on the role of norms and countermeasures to shape hybrid conflict. This presentation was based on the HCSS report series “From Blurred Lines to Red Lines: How Countermeasures and Norms Shape Hybrid Conflict”.
On 14 Oct., the European Parliament Special Committee on Foreign Interference in all Democratic Processes in the EU, including Disinformation (INGE), hosted a hearing on economic damage of foreign interference. In line with the mandate of the Special Committee to investigate foreign interference and suggest remedies, Louk Faesen was invited to present a concrete proposal for better public-private cooperation to counter disinformation:
The market will become more relaxed now that Gazprom has started supplying more, HCSS energy expert Lucia van Geuns commented on NOS Nieuws. But consumers will not notice it for a while, she continued: it is impossible to predict when their energy prices will go down again.
Russia is not the only component that determines whether the gas price rises, Jilles van den Beukel explained to RTL Nieuws. “Other factors also play a role, such as the energy shortage in Asia, the fact that we are getting less gas from Groningen, and that our stocks are tight due to a cold spring”.
“Shell is looked at very critically in the Netherlands, while it is seen internationally as a company that leads the way,” HCSS energy expert Jilles van den Beukel commented to NOS News. As a result, the pressure on Shell could in theory also have a negative impact on climate transition. “The carbon footprint of Shell’s production and transportation per barrel of oil is less than half than that of some competitors.” This means that if Shell sells its fossil fuel activities to other oil companies, global emissions may actually increase.
Biden’s Bitter Birthday
This week, the US state of Virginia elected a new governor. And it’s neck and neck — while Biden won big there last year. Will this be a reckoning with a year of Biden ‘in office’? Expert Paul Verhagen talks about it in VPRO’s Bureau Buitenland on Radio 1.