Where will the tensions around Taiwan lead? What are the results of the COP26 conference? Will the U.S. be able to supply all of the metals it needs to “Build Back Better”? All of this – and more – in your latest HCSS Digest!
HCSS senior strategic analyst Laura Birkman participated in the online conference “Addressing Global Challenges: NATO’s Approach To Climate Change”, where she joined the panel on “Climate change and security: A need for a comprehensive response”. The event organized by the Sofia Security Forum was co-sponsored by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division.
For two weeks, world leaders, scientists, celebs and climate activists gathered in Glasgow for the COP26 climate summit. But what were the actual results of the conference? Was it a good COP or a bad COP? You can hear all about it from climate envoy Jaime de Bourbon de Parme in a brand new episode of our podcast De Strateeg on BNR.
What new security risks does climate change bring? And what opportunities does the Dutch government have for international cooperation when addressing the issue? Laura Birkman and Dorith Kool come up with conclusions and recommendations for the most relevant and feasible opportunities for international cooperation on climate-related security.
In order to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the devastating impacts of climate change, India must come to better grips with the actions it can take at regional and district level. Early warning and early action will be essential. A new snapshot by assistant analyst Sneha Mahapatra and senior strategic analyst Laura Birkman explains how the climate-food-poverty nexus in Odisha, one of India’s poorest and most agriculture-dependent regions, may be better managed to build resilience and avert disaster.
China’s military power projection is linked with Xi’s domestic agenda. China increasingly treats the South China Sea as its own territory; this will be a drain on its defense resources, but will also provide a foundation for projecting power outside the region, The Economic Times reported on the recent study “China’s Military Rise” by Top European think-tank HCSS.
How likely is it that tensions around Taiwan will lead to conflict, and what would this mean for international and European security? What else is Taiwan doing to safeguard its position and how can Europe and the US support this? HCSS strategic analyst Joris Teer will discuss the current developments during an online event about the future of Taiwan, organized by de Jonge Atlantici.
What is the influence of China on international world trade? And what are the consequences of this for the port of Rotterdam? Listen to Rob de Wijk in conversation with Roelof Hemmen in podcast Diepgang.
If a Swedish translation of the highly praised op-ed “If China Attacks Taiwan, What Will Europe Do?” by Joris Teer and Tim Sweijs wasn’t enough for you, how about you try your hand at a Vietnamese translation?
The answer to the emerging, or actually already present, world power China? Cooperation. “Working together in the EU”, says Han ten Broeke on WNL’s Goedemorgen Nederland: “If we think we can solve it on our own, as the Netherlands, we will be crushed.”
Defense & International Security
Gulf Arab states’ military experience, supplier diversification efforts, and domestic industry developments – in tandem with their traditional financial clout – have gained them greater leverage over European security partners, HCSS strategic analyst Lotje Boswinkel writes in an op-ed for The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Maintaining a stable, secure, and open Indo-Pacific is crucial to European prosperity and values. Europeans are therefore looking for a role in the region, but which one can and should they play? Multilateral cooperation is the preferred European approach, but with which regional partners? Europeans have increased their naval presence in the region, but is it sufficient? To answer these questions, HCSS is running the Guarding the Maritime Commons project in 2021 and 2022.
“Only by setting up a credible Defense organization can we keep ourselves safe and can climate security, education and care receive the attention that we all consider important,” says HCSS expert Patrick Bolder in newspaper the Telegraaf.
In response to the HCSS report “The High Value of the North Sea“, Member of Parliament Derk Boswijk (CDA) has submitted a motion to develop a strategy for protecting the crucial infrastructure in the North Sea, during the parliamentary meeting for the defense budget for 2022.
Deterrence, wasn’t that a term from the Cold War? On the contrary, writes the Militaire Spectator in their book review on “Deterrence in the 21st Century”: deterrence is categorically back on the agenda. Edited by Tim Sweijs and Frans Osinga, 34 researchers from various national and international research institutes conclude in 25 articles (open access e-book) that the development of deterrence theory has not stood still.
What effects do biotechnology and quantum technology have on national security? And how can the Netherlands and the EU leverage emerging technologies to strengthen (inter)national security? TNO’s Carolina van Weerd and Deborah Lassche assess the possible impact of these developing technologies in our latest Strategic Alert.
According to HCSS expert Patrick Bolder, the Russians have flexed their muscles once again – but this time in space, by shooting down their own satellite, he explained in De Standaard: “Moscow seems to want to challenge the US and show that it will not stand by the American hegemony in space, that it is also able to do something about it.”
Lukashenko uses migrants as a weapon to divide the EU. But disruption also happens in the Netherlands, Rob de Wijk writes in his column for Trouw. More problematic is that part of Dutch politics legitimizes this behavior and uses parliament as a Soviet-style propaganda podium. Our democracy is in danger because of all these attacks, both from the outside and from within.
Energy & Resources
Just how critical is critical when it comes to critical materials? HCSS subject matter expert Jeff Amrish Ritoe looks at the supply and demand of each respective mineral of importance in curbing global greenhouse gas emissions, in an article for The Assay.
Will Biden’s decision to release millions of barrels of America’s strategic oil reserve help to lower the price at the pump? “The biggest factors influencing the price are still global demand and how quickly OPEC+ turns on the tap,” HCSS energy analyst Jilles van den Beukel commented in De Volkskrant. Still, the measure need not be completely meaningless, he added: “The fact that the US and China are acting in unison on this point, despite their many differences, is increasing the pressure on oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.”
“Build Back Better” is the slogan used by the advocates of the Biden Administration’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The bipartisan backed infrastructure bill aims to stimulate demand for domestically sourced materials. But will the U.S. be able to supply all of the metals it needs to execute the projects under the US$ 1.2 trillion new law? Read Strategic Advisor Jeff Amrish Ritoe’s latest op-ed to find out.