Entries by Patrick Willemsen

New report | Rough Seas Ahead: Maritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050

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What does the future hold for the Royal Netherlands Navy? The latest HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Frank Bekkers explores the future of Dutch maritime security in the 2040-2050 period. With climate change, shifting trade dynamics, and growing geopolitical instability, the RNLN must adapt to emerging threats. The report outlines key trends, four potential conflict scenarios, and critical capability recommendations.

De Strateeg: Bestaat de NAVO nog na de top in Den Haag deze zomer?

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Van de steun aan Oekraïne tot het waarborgen van Artikel 5: is de toekomst van de NAVO onder Trump nog wel een vanzelfsprekendheid? Paul van Liempt praat met Anna van Zoest, directeur van de Atlantische Commissie, en met HCSS onderzoeksdirecteur Tim Sweijs, in BNR podcast De Strateeg. Deze aflevering is de aftrap van een speciale reeks in aanloop naar de NAVO-top in Den Haag op 24 en 25 juni.

Analisi Difesa | Taiwan: Una Polveriera che potrebbe rimodellare gli Equilibri Globali

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Data la rilevanza strategica di Taiwan—sia in termini militari che economici—è essenziale considerare i possibili scenari e le implicazioni di un’eventuale riunificazione forzata da parte della Cina, scrive l’analista strategica dell’HCSS Benedetta Girardi in un articolo d’ opinione per Analisi Difesa.

Critical Minerals, Critical Talks | Lucia van Geuns on Supply Risks of Critical Raw Materials

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Europe needs ever more critical raw materials as these materials are in everything we own, want and need. But they aren’t always easily sourced. What makes sourcing these materials so difficult and sometimes unreliable? Why should we strive to follow the EU’s CRM-act? HCSS energy expert Lucia van Geuns answers these questions and more, on the “Critical Minerals, Critical Talks” podcast of VU Amsterdam.

Laura Jasper | International Fact-Checking Day

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On April 2, HCSS strategic analyst Laura Jasper will participate in a panel during the conference “Together for Truth: Whole-of-Society Approach to Safeguard Democracy” in Skopje. The international conference, organised by the Anti-Disinformation Network for the Balkans (ADN-Balkans), will focus on disinformation threats, foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), election integrity, fact-checking, and cross-sectoral collaboration.

Seabed Security | HCSS Guest Paper Series

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Recent incursions by Russian vessels and the sabotage of underwater power and internet cables have exposed critical vulnerabilities in NATO countries’ infrastructure. In preparation for the NATO Summit, TNO and HCSS, in close cooperation with the Dutch Ministries of Defence and Infrastructure & Water Management, organised an exclusive Seminar on Seabed Security, on March 27. As a follow-up, HCSS asked several experts to contribute a guest paper.

HCSS celebrates 18th Anniversary!

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Happy 18th Anniversary to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies! Since 2007, our incredible team has been working hard to deliver fact-based analysis of the challenges our societies face, in order to inform public discourse, public and private strategic decision making and contribute to international and national security in accordance with liberal democratic values. In 2025, our work is now more important now than ever before – here’s to many more years of HCSS making an impact!

HCSS Commentary | Opaque Supply Chains may prevent ReArming Europe

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Europe’s military supply chains are too fragile, fragmented, and opaque for today’s security environment—putting its Rearmament Plan at risk. While policymakers focus on boosting defence investments, a critical blind spot remains: securing the midstream of military supply chains. Without transparency and resilience in sourcing key components, European defence readiness is vulnerable to disruption. Read the latest HCSS op-ed by analysts Irina Patrahau and Benedetta Girardi on why Europe must urgently strengthen its defence supply networks.

New report: From the Euronuke to a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone

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The latest HCSS report examines the precarious state of the international nuclear order and the challenges Europe faces as U.S. security guarantees become increasingly uncertain. With arms control agreements collapsing and the return of transactional U.S. alliances, European nations must explore alternative deterrence strategies. This report by Davis Ellison, Samuel Zilincik, and Tim Sweijs outlines six potential pathways for strengthening European security, from nuclear-sharing to strategic conventional weapons.

Dynamics of De-Risking: Towards resilient supply chains for antibiotics, drones and the electricity grid in the Netherlands

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The European Union and its member states face growing vulnerabilities due to economic dependencies on China, particularly in health, defence, and energy. As China increasingly employs economic statecraft tactics—using economic tools to exert geopolitical influence—the EU must find ways to safeguard its vital sectors. To address these risks, the EU has launched a ‘de-risking’ agenda, […]