Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Maritime Security for resilient global Supply Chains in the wider Indo-Pacific

19 Dec 2024
Explore the critical nexus of maritime security and global supply chain resilience in the Indo-Pacific, the backbone of international trade. This volume highlights the region's strategic importance, vulnerabilities, and innovative solutions for securing key shipping routes. Featuring expert insights, it delves into multilateral cooperation, advanced technologies, and the role of small and middle powers like the Republic of Korea and the EU. Discover strategies to enhance maritime stability, foster economic security, and build resilient global trade networks amidst evolving challenges.
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Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba in International Networks: Strategic Partnerships for Sustainable Development

18 Dec 2024
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba have distinct geographic and economic characteristics that make them interesting players for the Netherlands, the EU and other international actors to engage with. While their small size, geographical isolation and limited local capacity bring significant challenges to economic development and resource management, enhanced international cooperation can help the islands address these challenges and bring opportunities for mutually beneficial arrangements. This new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi and Irina Patrahau explores avenues for sustainable development through cooperation with key international partners.
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Position paper | Economic security risks to Dutch and European competitiveness - Parliamentary expert testimony

12 Dec 2024
On December 11, HCSS strategic analyst Irina Patrahau provided a briefing for the Dutch House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economic Affairs on “Increasing security and reducing dependencies”. Patrahau updated the Parliament members on how Europe should deal with promoting (economic) security and countering strategic dependencies on third countries.The roundtable was held in response to the highly influential "Dragi-report" addressing European competitiveness.
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NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE) inaugural publication: "Advancing Climate Security Together"

25 Nov 2024
The NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE) have published their inaugural publication entitled "Advancing Climate Security Together". HCSS is proud to have provided a contribution by senior strategic analyst Laura Birkman. The publication features insights from 12 Sponsoring Nations, as well as from organizations active in the climate change and security realm.
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Geweld aan de horizon: Trends omtrent geweld en maatschappelijke stabiliteit

25 Nov 2024
De Nederlandse samenleving is kwetsbaar voor nieuwe vormen van geweld, zoals online intimidatie en extremistische dreigingen, aldus een nieuw HCSS rapport. Dit vraagt om nieuwe inzichten en effectieve beleidsmaatregelen, waarschuwen strategisch analisten Gerben Bakker en Pieter-Jan Vandoren. De groeiende diversiteit en complexiteit van geweldsvormen ondermijnen het traditionele geweldsmonopolie van de staat, en veroorzaken angst en een verminderd vertrouwen in maatschappelijke instituties.
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Notitie | Defensieplanning: Van evenwicht naar keuzes

25 Nov 2024
De Nederlandse krijgsmacht staat voor een fundamentele verandering door de nieuwe geopolitieke situatie in Europa, mede veroorzaakt door de Russische inval in Oekraïne. Deze paradigmaverandering brengt discussies met zich mee over Europese defensie, de rol van de VS en de verdeling van middelen tussen nationale en internationale taken. De veranderende veiligheidssituatie vereist politieke keuzes over de vraag welke bijdrage Nederland aan de collectieve verdediging van Europa wil leveren, stellen Frank Bekkers, Rob de Wijk en Hans van der Louw in deze nieuwe HCSS notitie.
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HCSS Draghi Report Series | Expert Commentary

20 Nov 2024
Many of the sectors mentioned in the much anticipated report by Mario Draghi, “The future of European competitiveness”, touch directly on research areas of HCSS. The almost 400 pages of analysis and recommendations of the report provide a stark warning for the EU to clean up its economic and industrial act. In the HCSS Draghi Report Series, Ron Stoop and Berend Kwak sat down with several of our strategic analysts to ask for their views on the sector-specific in-depth analyses and recommendations of this high-profile report.
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The Socio-Political Instability Observer: September 2024

18 Nov 2024
The fourth edition of the ‘Observer’, analysing the results of the HCSS Socio-Political Instability Survey, continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Lebanon has displaced Ukraine at the top of the list of countries most at risk of socio-political instability, for the first time in over a year. Russia’s alliances with unconventional partners have led experts to perceive Russia as the most influential country in the next six months. This edition also highlights that military factors have now surpassed economic ones as the primary drivers of instability, likely due to worsening security conditions in Western Asia and across Central, Eastern, and Western Africa.
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Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends

14 Nov 2024
On September 23, 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) hosted experts from South Africa, Brazil, and global organizations like the UN to discuss future security trends and establish a global foresight baseline. This was the second event in the "Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks" series, titled "Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends." This summary reflects non-Western experts' views on Western models of cooperation, democracy, and the interplay between multipolarity and multilateralism, offering insights from African, Latin American, and UN perspectives. Key takeaways and conclusions shared by participants are also included.
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A new Golden Age for Argentinian Mining? Why RIGI has the potential to make Argentina a critical raw materials powerhouse

13 Nov 2024
Argentina, despite its vast lithium and copper reserves, has struggled to attract foreign investment due to economic instability and past nationalization policies. The recently passed Ley de Bases and its RIGI initiative aim to improve Argentina’s investment climate by offering long-term tax, customs, and currency exchange incentives across key industries, including mining. While RIGI could draw foreign investment, especially from the EU, success depends on provincial ratification and political support. In this new op-ed, HCSS strategic advisor Jeff Amrish Ritoe asks the question: does RIGI have the potential to make Argentina a critical raw materials powerhouse?
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Twilight of Atlanticism? America’s shifting approaches to Europe

11 Nov 2024
This new HCSS report by strategic analyst Davis Ellison concludes that the days of relying on the U.S. as the primary guarantor of European security may be coming to an end. The transatlantic partnership will not disappear overnight, but significant changes are underway. Europe must prepare for a future where it will play a much larger role in its own defence and security affairs.  
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Augmentation, Not Substitution: HCSS Manual for the Responsible Use of Generative AI

24 Oct 2024
How can HCSS integrate Generative AI into its research practices responsibly? This new manual by Tim Sweijs, Jesse Kommandeur, and Abe de Ruijter outlines ten maxims for the effective and ethical use of Generative AI in applied research and policy analysis. The principles, which focus on confidentiality, transparency, and integrity, address the challenges and opportunities of using AI while safeguarding research quality.
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The Dutch tank storage sector: Navigating uncertainty in the energy transition

23 Oct 2024
How can the Dutch tank storage sector navigate the current uncertain energy landscape? This new HCSS paper by Irina Patrahau and Lucia van Geuns takes stock of trends and developments in the Dutch and European energy markets since 2022, assesses the impacts for the Dutch tank storage sector and makes recommendations for Dutch policymakers about ways to support storage infrastructure in an uncertain time.
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De Nederlandse tankopslagsector: Omgaan met onzekerheid tijdens de energietransitie

23 Oct 2024
De tankopslagsector is een essentiële speler in de wereldwijde toeleveringsketens voor energie, voedsel en industrie, maar tankopslagbedrijven en andere vormen van energie-infrastructuur zitten in een lastige positie. Onzekerheid over de snelheid en het karakter van de energietransitie leidt tot uitdagingen voor het nemen van noodzakelijke langetermijninvesteringsbeslissingen. Deze nieuwe HCSS paper door Irina Patrahau en Lucia van Geuns helpt de tankopslagsector te navigeren in dit onzekere energielandschap en komt met aanbevelingen voor Nederlandse beleidsmakers.
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De uitdagingen van een oliehausse in Suriname

22 Oct 2024
Suriname, het kleinste en minst bevolkte land van Zuid Amerika, heeft de potentie om een belangrijke olie- en gasproducent te worden, wat de economie ten goede zal komen en de bevolking uit de armoede kan tillen. Ondanks deze veelbelovende vooruitzichten zal de weg naar succes lang en hobbelig zijn, schrijven HCSS energie specialisten Lucia van Geuns en Jilles van den Beukel in hun essay. Kan Suriname duurzame ontwikkeling omarmen, de economie diversifiëren en zijn instituties versterken? Er is nu een belofte van een betere economische en sociaal rechtvaardige toekomst voor Suriname, maar de overheid moet wel de nodige stappen ondernemen om dit te verwezenlijken.
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Far Seas, Hard Choices: Aligning Ambitious European Objectives with Capabilities and Coalitions for the Indo-Pacific

14 Oct 2024
The most logical use of European naval capabilities does not lie in the Western Pacific, but rather in the Western Indian Ocean, conclude Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Laura Jasper in this new HCSS brief, which explores why and how different coalitions of European military forces can form and deploy to the Indo-Pacific, the trade-offs faced by European states as they seek both partners within Europe and in the region and the respective impacts these choices make on the military and economic dynamics of the region.
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Looming and Lethal: Assessing the Operational Implications of Drone Use by Mexican Organized Crime Groups

9 Oct 2024
Organized Crime groups in Mexico have been steadily integrating Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, aka drones, into their criminal operations. This new HCSS snapshot by Giulio Damiani and Laura Jasper analyses how UAVs have impacted three operational dimensions: trafficking of illicit goods, the surveillance of rival territory, and the coercion of groups who attempt to resist OCG violence. The snapshot also looks at the inherent risks of this emerging phenomenon in a European context: what can European states and law enforcement learn from understanding the criminal use of drones by organised crime groups in Mexico for the security of our own airspace?
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Defending the Digital Domain: The effort to build a cyber resilient India 2023 Edition – Updated Version

27 Sep 2024
In the 2022 edition of this report, we covered how India, as the largest and most diverse democracy on earth is in the middle of building security within cyberspace and all other domains. India is currently undergoing efforts to digitise its economy and infrastructure. Consequently, the number of users to be safeguarded by securitisation of the cyber domain is rising rapidly. To become an economically developed digital nation, India must therefore also adopt a holistic approach in tackling challenges to its cybersecurity. Using the findings of the National Cyber Resilience Game and desk research, the paper was updated by participants of the 2023 Indo-Dutch Cyber Security School. This updated 2023 edition concludes by providing three recommendations to improve India's overall security in the digital domain.
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Guest Paper | What divides us? And the impact on democracy and stability

19 Sep 2024
This guest paper 'What divides us? And the impact on democracy and stability' was written by Jakkie Cilliers in anticipation of the second The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends'. This closed-door event will be held on the 23rd of September 2024. The paper examines the widening gap between the Global North and Global South amid shifting economic and political dynamics. It explores how these global divisions—fueled by economic disparities, geopolitical tensions, and climate change—affect democratisation, governance, and global stability. The piece also delves into Africa's unique challenges and opportunities within this evolving landscape.
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Guest Paper | A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends

18 Sep 2024
This guest paper 'A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends' was written by Prof. Alcides Costa Vaz in anticipation of the second The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends'. This closed-door event will be held on the 23rd of September 2024. The paper highlights how Latin America, while generally free from interstate wars, faces significant security threats from organised crime, geopolitical rivalries, technological vulnerabilities, and environmental degradation. These trends are likely to persist, shaping both regional and global security landscapes in the near future.
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Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Transatlantic Outlooks on the Future Security Landscape and its Implications for the Netherlands

12 Sep 2024
On the 3rd of July 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited experts from across the transatlantic community, specifically the US National Intelligence Council, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and the EU Institute for Security Studies to exchange views on future security trends in the transatlantic community and their implications for the Netherlands and Europe. This write-up of the event provides a summary of what was discussed, the trends, drivers, shocks and provides some key takeaways for practitioners.
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Dealing with Russia: The TAG Russia Strategy 2024

9 Sep 2024
The paradox of any Western strategy is that it is ultimately dependent on reform in Russia, the international experts from The Alphen Group state. What is clear is that until then there can be no peace. Consequently, there are only 2 strategic choices realistically on offer. Make peace with Russia at Ukraine’s expense in the hope it will close a chapter and make Europe more secure. OR make peace with Russia only when Ukraine has been successfully defended and in so doing send a clear message to the world about the West’s collective determination to resist such aggression.
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International Norms Development and AI in the Military Domain

5 Sep 2024
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the military domain is rapidly becoming a reality. HCSS and the Centre for International Governance Innovation just published this joint report titled “International Norms Development and AI in the Military Domain.“ The report, written by HCSS Director of Research Dr. Tim Sweijs and HCSS Strategic Analyst Sofia Romansky distinguishes seven focus areas found in international governance initiatives and identifies their strengths and weaknesses, as well as overlaps and gaps in the emerging normative landscape.
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Optimizing Causal Interventions in Hybrid Bayesian Networks

15 Aug 2024
This peer-reviewed paper shows how heuristic optimization can be used to retrieve policy-interventions using a discretization and knowledge compilation approach. It is the product of a collaboration between the Natural Computing group of Leiden University’s Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS) and HCSS, aiming to use Natural Computing's optimization expertise for policy development purposes.
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