Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends

On the 23rd of September 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited experts from across the globe, specifically South Africa, Brazil and global organisations such as the UN to exchange views on ‘possible futures’ of future security trends and to establish a global baseline in foresight. This was the second event in a three-part series called ‘The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks’. The second event was titled ‘Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends.’ Check out the event recap here.

The first event was titled ‘Navigating Tomorrow: Transatlantic Outlooks on the Future Security Landscape and its Implications for the Netherlands’. Check out the event recap here and the official write-up here.

During our first event, experts from various transatlantic foresight institutions were struck by the similarities of their reports. Pervasive competition, enabled by technological advancements and intensified by climate change, was the overarching trend from the transatlantic perspective. The similarity of their observations hinted towards a Western bias through which the future was perceived, raising the question whether transatlantic perspectives can accurately grasp the full spectrum of global dynamics.

During the second event, it became clear that key elements of the transatlantic baseline were viewed differently by our second group of experts. Critical reflections on the efficacy of capitalism alongside liberal democracy as a guiding structure for developing countries, essentially the foundation of the transatlantic worldview, reflected a fundamental disparity in perceptions between our first and second group of experts.

Futures exist in the minds of policy-makers and are determined by perceptions shaped by political, social, and economic factors. The observed divergence in global perceptions served as an indicator of larger discrepancies. As one of the speakers summarised: “How you view the future depends on where you are.” The Western baseline established in the first event appeared to be incomplete and reflective of a quite homogeneous, consensus view of the future amongst foresight practitioners.

This write-up of the second event represents the perceptions of non-Western experts and attendees as expressed during the Forum, on several key elements featuring in the Western baseline, including models of cooperation and competition, the role of democracy, and the relationship between multipolarity and multilateralism. It also offers their analysis of the key drivers underpinning future security drivers, this time from an African, Latin American, and UN perspective. It concludes with a set of key takeaways and conclusions offered by the participants.