Research
In May last year, HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting over 500 think tankers from around the world to give their views on the short term likelihood and geography of volatility globally using both multiple-choice and open questions. The results of the open-ended questions were gained through a process of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, with specified themes or coding categories determined by the authors.
The fourth edition of the ‘Observer’ continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Recent Israeli incursions into Lebanon have placed Lebanon at the top of the list of countries most at risk of socio-political instability, displacing Ukraine from the leading position for the first time in over a year. Russia’s alliances with unconventional partners such as North Korea and Iran, along with its hosting of the annual BRICS summit, have led experts to perceive Russia as the most influential country in the next six months. This edition also highlights that military factors have now surpassed economic ones as the primary drivers of instability, likely due to worsening security conditions in Western Asia and across Central, Eastern, and Western Africa. The survey further examines the potential outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU’s stance within the U.S.-China rivalry, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most affected by geopolitical tensions. Finally, respondents reflect on instability within their own countries.
Authors: Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Ana Dadu and Ron Stoop
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