Research
In May last year, HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting over 500 think tankers from around the world to give their views on the short term likelihood and geography of volatility globally using both multiple-choice and open questions. The results of the open-ended questions were gained through a process of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, with specified themes or coding categories determined by the authors.
The third edition of the ‘Observer’ series highlights the escalating Israeli-Hamas conflict and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war as the perceived main sources of global socio-political instability. With the Russo-Ukrainian war passing its two-year mark and increased involvement from state and non-state actors in the Middle East, the impact of different drivers which contribute to global instability should be accounted for. The ‘Observer’ finds that demographic changes are expected to have a greater impact on instability than environmental issues this quarter. This is notable given the rise of right-wing parties and the sixty-four countries holding national elections this year.
Interestingly, the survey results also show a divergence in terms of which state and region are predicted to experience the most socio-political instability in the next six months. Whereas Ukraine remains the top state, Western Asia as a region has drawn the most attention. Subsequent surveys could explore how concurrent conflicts impact evaluations of perceived impact on instability.
Overall, this ‘Observer’ focuses on surveying the potential ripple effects of various events such as elections, coups, and conflict escalation for global and regional socio-political instability.
The survey was completed throughout the month of January 2024 and is the third of a series of surveys that were completed throughout 2023-2024. The survey results will contribute to the HCSS Socio-Political Instability Monitor dashboard. Each survey will produce an ‘Observer’, like this document, highlighting key findings which will be available on the HCSS website.
Authors: Sofia Romansky and Julia Döll
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