Research
New joint Clingendael / HCSS policy brief: Eventually all wars must come to an end – including the war between Russia and Ukraine that began nearly eleven years ago with the Russian annexation of Crimea. Next week, Trump takes office with the ambition to strike a quick deal between Russia and Ukraine that will have far-reaching repercussions for security on the European continent. There is no quick and easy fix. A ceasefire by itself does not end the war, and war termination does not necessarily lead to sustainable peace – especially not if it compromises on key aspects of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Europe should not only complain to Trump but be actively involved and help to make sure an agreement succeeds. This includes funds for reconstruction, continued arms supplies and stabilising and securing Ukraine after a ceasefire.
This joint Clingendael/HCSS policy brief serves as input for a discussion on the European position on war termination agreement negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The objective of this paper is to inform discussion on the following aspects of an agreement to end the Russo-Ukrainian war:
- What are the main components that may be agreed upon in a future agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and in which respects is an agreement still out of reach?
- What is the position of the upcoming US administration under Donald Trump on these components?
- What position should European NATO member states take in influencing the agreement? Which components should be considered ‘red lines’ for European security?
Once in office, and once presented with European démarches about the importance of continued support for Ukraine, Donald Trump may well ask European leaders three simple questions.
- “Are you prepared to fight and possibly die for Dnipro?”
- “If not, are you prepared to pay for Ukraine’s security if I provide the weaponry?”
- “And if not, are you at least prepared to pay for your own security in NATO if I provide it?”
If the answer to all these three questions is ‘no’, then an empty-handed Europe will have no choice but to accept whatever deal Trump makes with Russia – which may well be about Ukraine and Europe and largely without Ukraine and Europe. Europe would therefore do well to decide in advance what it is willing and able to offer and what its own red lines are. Formally trading away Ukraine’s security, territory and external sovereignty in exchange for a quick but ultimately unsustainable agreement is clearly not in Europe’s interest. However, without a willingness to either supply troops or to foot the bill for both Ukraine’s and its own security, Europe has little to offer in return and may have to live with a dirty deal that’s done dirt cheap.
Authors: Bob Deen, Tim Sweijs, Roman de Baedts and Nora Nijboer.