Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Research Topics

Energy Transition

Energy transition and demand for raw materials

6 Sep 2017

Energy transition, necessary for the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement and the delivery of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, requires development and large-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies. These will increase global demand for different minerals and metals, what mandates a wide range of adjustments at the state level. The need to re-think, reduce, […]

Van exporteur naar importeur - de verander(en)de rol van aardgas in Nederland

30 Aug 2017

Na de ontdekking van het Groningen aardgasveld in 1959, het grootste gasveld in West-Europa, is Nederland meer dan een halve eeuw zelfvoorzienend geweest met deze energiebron. Het keerpunt kwam door de aardbeving in Huizinge in de provincie Groningen in augustus 2012 met een kracht van 3,6 op de schaal van Richter. die gebeurtenis heeft geleid […]

Geo-economic china silk road

A Road to Riches or a Road to Ruin? The Geo-economic Implications of China’s New Silk Road

15 Aug 2017

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project was formally introduced by Chinese President Xi-Jinping in 2013. The project, aimed at integrating trade and investment in Eurasia, encompasses over $900 billion in planned investments of infrastructure across Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). A dedicated forum for cooperation with […]

Political Violence Alert

Monthly Alert August 2017 - Political Violence Alert

3 Aug 2017

Political violence is real and present. How, why and when political violence manifests itself is crucial for turning early warning into early action. The earlier decision- and policymakers are made aware of the potential for imminent outbursts of violence, the sooner they can act to manage or mitigate the consequences or even deter the occurrence […]

Other Side of the Coin

Monthly Alert: New Security Threats and Opportunities Alert - The Other Side of the Security Coin

6 Jul 2017

The global commentariat has relentlessly bombarded international op-ed pages with accounts of crises, risks, and global dangers. And this is not without reason: we certainly live in times of great geopolitical upheaval. But we must not lose sight of the other side of the security coin, one that recognizes societal resilience as a counterweight to […]

Strengthening Stability and Sustainability

4 Jul 2017

The rising demand for natural resources including energy, minerals and agricultural products, has been driven mainly by population growth in developing countries and an improvement in living standards in many countries around the world. Various factors however serve to limit the availability of natural resources. First of all, resources are not equally distributed across the […]

Dutch and EU Security FI

Monthly Alert: Vital European and Dutch Security Interests

9 Jun 2017

The Vital European and Dutch Security Interests Alert considers key security discourses of principal stakeholders concerning vital European and Dutch security interests. Documents such as the Strategie Nationale Veiligheid, de Internationale Veiligheidsstrategie, Defense Strategy publications, the NATO Strategic Concept and the EU Global Strategy serve as the basis for this Alert. Based on a monthly […]

NATO Strat Alert

Strategic Alert: NATO special meeting of May 25th 2017

19 May 2017

May 25th marks the first visit of U.S. President Trump to Europe. It will also be the first time the newly-elected U.S. President will attend a NATO gathering. Besides opening NATO’s new headquarters, leaders will discuss NATO’s burden sharing, counterterrorism actions and tense relations with Russia. High on the meeting’s agenda will be the 2% […]

NATO Strat Alert

Strategic Alert: NATO special meeting of May 25th 2017 (NL)

19 May 2017

De NAVO-Top markeert het eerste bezoek van de Amerikaanse President Trump aan Europa, waar hij ook de pas gekozen Franse President Macron zal ontmoeten. Naast de opening van het nieuwe hoofdkwartier van de NAVO, zullen de leiders spreken over de lastenverdeling binnen de NAVO, de gespannen betrekkingen met Rusland en maatregelen in de strijd tegen […]

AI and the future of defense

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Defense

17 May 2017

Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. […]

Oil and Resources Nexus

The Natural Resources and Security Nexus

3 May 2017

The nexus between natural resources and security needs to be better understood and more closely monitored. Climate change exacerbates environmental challenges and natural resources scarcity which are contributing factors to the onset of political violence both within and between states. A more granular grasp of the dynamics involved in these risk multipliers through the use […]

Gepolitical Impact Climate Policies FI

The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies

18 Apr 2017

At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. As part […]

StratMon 2017

Strategische Monitors 2017 gepresenteerd

23 Mar 2017

Op 20 februari hebben het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) en Instituut Clingendael hun Monitors gepresenteerd. Beide instituten brengen sinds 2012 jaarlijks hun monitor uit als onderdeel van de Strategische Monitor van de Nederlandse overheid. Bert Koenders, minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, nam de studies namens het kabinet in ontvangst. Rob de Wijk sprak […]

Nationale Veiligheid Rob de Wijk NCTV

Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel verdient diepgaande discussie door politiek

23 Mar 2017

In mei 2015 kondigde de minister van Veiligheid en Justitie aan dat de Strategie Nationale Veiligheid (SNV) wordt herijkt. Er werd gekozen voor een nieuwe aanpak waarvan het nieuwe Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel een belangrijk zichtbaar resultaat is. Dit veiligheidsprofiel is inderdaad een breuk met het verleden en vormt een nieuwe start voor de verdere ontwikkeling van […]

Cyber as a Domain

Cyber as a domain: concepts and capabilities

22 Mar 2017

During the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw of 8-9 July 2016, NATO declared that its essential mission is unchanged. It was also stated that NATO will ensure that it has the full range of capabilities necessary to deter and defend against potential adversaries and the full spectrum of threats that could confront the Alliance from […]

Big Data Applications for Security FI

Enabling big data applications for security: responsible by design

17 Mar 2017

There are all kinds of new applications in development today that make increasingly smarter use of Big Data. Take for example the recent announcements that judicial decisions can be predicted by computers. In the security domain there are numerous possibilities to use these technologies too. At the same time the security domain bears the risk […]

Russische Desinformatie FI

Hoe beschermen wij ons tegen Russische desinformatie?

9 Mar 2017

De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron. Ook Nederland is niet […]

Dutch Investments in Cyberspace

Dutch Investments in ICT and Cybersecurity

8 Mar 2017

Digitalization has taken a predominant role in the Netherlands. The Netherlands considers itself one of the leading ICT countries, promotes itself as ‘a safe place to do business’ and aspires to be the digital gateway of Europe. This report will first estimate the current and prospective size of the Dutch digital economy and the ICT […]

StratMon 2017

Volatility and Friction in the Age of Disintermediation

20 Feb 2017

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American […]

Turkey Pivot West

A farewell to the West? Turkey's possible pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt

20 Feb 2017

Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of […]

Conflict and Cooperation

Conflict and Cooperation

20 Feb 2017

HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?” […]

Nowcasting Geodynamic Trends

Nowcasting Geodynamics, Great Powers and Pivoting

20 Feb 2017

HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add […]

Moldova Identity Crisis

A National Identity Crisis? Moldova in flux between East and West

20 Feb 2017

Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched […]

Many Faces Political Violence FI

The Many Faces of Political Violence

20 Feb 2017

The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been […]

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