Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Oil and Resources Nexus

The Natural Resources and Security Nexus

3 May 2017

The nexus between natural resources and security needs to be better understood and more closely monitored. Climate change exacerbates environmental challenges and natural resources scarcity which are contributing factors to the onset of political violence both within and between states. A more granular grasp of the dynamics involved in these risk multipliers through the use […]

Gepolitical Impact Climate Policies FI

The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies

18 Apr 2017

At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. As part […]

StratMon 2017

Strategische Monitors 2017 gepresenteerd

23 Mar 2017

Op 20 februari hebben het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) en Instituut Clingendael hun Monitors gepresenteerd. Beide instituten brengen sinds 2012 jaarlijks hun monitor uit als onderdeel van de Strategische Monitor van de Nederlandse overheid. Bert Koenders, minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, nam de studies namens het kabinet in ontvangst. Rob de Wijk sprak […]

Nationale Veiligheid Rob de Wijk NCTV

Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel verdient diepgaande discussie door politiek

23 Mar 2017

In mei 2015 kondigde de minister van Veiligheid en Justitie aan dat de Strategie Nationale Veiligheid (SNV) wordt herijkt. Er werd gekozen voor een nieuwe aanpak waarvan het nieuwe Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel een belangrijk zichtbaar resultaat is. Dit veiligheidsprofiel is inderdaad een breuk met het verleden en vormt een nieuwe start voor de verdere ontwikkeling van […]

Cyber as a Domain

Cyber as a domain: concepts and capabilities

22 Mar 2017

During the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw of 8-9 July 2016, NATO declared that its essential mission is unchanged. It was also stated that NATO will ensure that it has the full range of capabilities necessary to deter and defend against potential adversaries and the full spectrum of threats that could confront the Alliance from […]

Big Data Applications for Security FI

Enabling big data applications for security: responsible by design

17 Mar 2017

There are all kinds of new applications in development today that make increasingly smarter use of Big Data. Take for example the recent announcements that judicial decisions can be predicted by computers. In the security domain there are numerous possibilities to use these technologies too. At the same time the security domain bears the risk […]

Russische Desinformatie FI

Hoe beschermen wij ons tegen Russische desinformatie?

9 Mar 2017

De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron. Ook Nederland is niet […]

Dutch Investments in Cyberspace

Dutch Investments in ICT and Cybersecurity

8 Mar 2017

Digitalization has taken a predominant role in the Netherlands. The Netherlands considers itself one of the leading ICT countries, promotes itself as ‘a safe place to do business’ and aspires to be the digital gateway of Europe. This report will first estimate the current and prospective size of the Dutch digital economy and the ICT […]

StratMon 2017

Volatility and Friction in the Age of Disintermediation

20 Feb 2017

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American […]

Turkey Pivot West

A farewell to the West? Turkey's possible pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt

20 Feb 2017

Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of […]

Conflict and Cooperation

Conflict and Cooperation

20 Feb 2017

HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?” […]

Nowcasting Geodynamic Trends

Nowcasting Geodynamics, Great Powers and Pivoting

20 Feb 2017

HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add […]

Moldova Identity Crisis

A National Identity Crisis? Moldova in flux between East and West

20 Feb 2017

Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched […]

Many Faces Political Violence FI

The Many Faces of Political Violence

20 Feb 2017

The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been […]

Fall of ISIS

The rise and fall of ISIS

20 Feb 2017

Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it […]

The other side of the security coin

20 Feb 2017

The presence of peace is more than the absence of conflict. Analyses and evaluations of the state of the international security environment often focus solely on the most concerning developments and tend to fall back on various conflict-centric metrics when providing assessments of a given security landscape. This chapter, entitled “The Other Side of the […]

Bio Weapons Threat

The Increasing Threat of Biological Weapons

20 Feb 2017

With the World Health Organization (WHO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Blue Ribbon panel publishing reports on the emerging risks of biological weaponry in past months, there is a new sense of urgency regarding biological weapons. In August 2016, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon told the Security Council […]

Wereld in Beweging

Een kompas voor een wereld in beweging

15 Feb 2017

HCSS studie voor het ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken: Geopolitieke veranderingen eist een revolutie in het denken over het Nederlandse buitenlandbeleid. Drastische veranderingen in de wereld ondermijnen de grondslagen van het Nederlands buitenlandbeleid. Geopolitieke veranderingen tasten het multilateralisme van sterke internationale instituties, internationaal recht, handelsverdragen en een door waarden gedreven buitenlandsbeleid aan. De Brexit en de […]

Op, neer en zijwaarts. De militaire dimensie van crisismanagement

31 Jan 2017

De veiligheidsuitdagingen in de wereld zijn complex en talrijk en het ziet er niet naar uit dat de situatie binnenkort verbetert. Crises die instabiliteit in en om Europa veroorzaken nemen in aantal toe, ontwikkelen zich snel en zijn vaak complex van aard. Het is van groot belang dat Europese landen die samenwerken in NAVO en/of […]

Economics of Planetary Security

The Economics of Planetary Security: Climate Change as an Economic Conflict Factor

13 Dec 2016

In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude […]

Food Systems FI

The Netherlands in the global food system

22 Nov 2016

This study addressed the question of future food challenges and how these may play out. Part of the analysis focused on the question as to how we may enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change, increased population growth and rising incomes worldwide on future food systems. The worldwide food system is vulnerable to […]

Great power Assertivitis

Great Power Assertivitis

8 Sep 2016

HCSS has been monitoring Great Power Assertiveness (GPA) since 2014 using a variety of different datasets and -tools – see our Assessing Assertions of Assertiveness: The Chinese and Russian Cases (2014); From Assertiveness to Aggression. 2014 As a Watershed Year for Russian Foreign and Security Policy (2015). This study presents the GPA story of five great powers: China, ‘Europe’, India, Russia and […]

Circular Economy Dev Countries FI

The circular economy and developing countries

21 Jul 2016

A transition towards a ‘circular economy’ – in which redundant consumer goods are viewed as input rather than waste – offers great potential for societies to reduce their environmental footprint. Once products reach the end of their lifespan new value can be generated by re-using valuable resources. In today’s globalized world, widely used (consumer) goods […]

Better together: towards a new cooperation portfolio for defense

21 Jul 2016

A new HCSS report “Better Together” is about cooperation, the way it is changing, and what this means for our national defense organizations (NDOs). Cooperation is the foundation of any human society. The scale and extent of cooperation is what distinguishes humans from other species. In recent years, the digital revolution has drastically reduced the […]

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