Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Strategische Monitor 2017-2018

Strategische Monitor: Stilte voor de Storm?

13 Apr 2018

In de monitor 2017-2018 hebben HCSS en Instituut Clingendael wederom door middel van verscheidene methodes de ontwikkelingen in de internationale orde gemonitord en geduid. Deze orde blijkt weerbaarder voor spanningen dan vaak wordt gedacht, en Nederland blijft goed gepositioneerd in dit internationale krachtenveld. De afgelopen vijf jaar gedroegen de grote mogendheden zich assertiever, echter in 2017 was […]

resilient cities safe societies

Resilient cities, safe societies

28 Feb 2018

In his well-known book The End of Power, Moises Naim argues that urbanization – which he regards as “the most aggressively power-transforming aspect of the mobility revolution” – will have “intense” consequences for the distribution of power within a country. The emerging role of cities in world politics makes governance of cities not just a […]

Flow Security Dutch Defense Policies FI

Flow Security and Dutch Defense and Security Policies

26 Feb 2018

In a world of complex supply chains, global flows are critical to the welfare of societies at large. They yield enormous economic, social, and cultural value, whether through trade, foreign investment, tourism or the exchange of knowledge and ideas. Mounting interconnectedness, however, also facilitates the growth of negative flows such as human trafficking, the trade in illicit goods including arms and drugs, international terrorism, and cybercrime, which have the potential to disrupt and undermine the resilience of societies. While fundamentally dependent on global flows, modern societies are also critically vulnerable to flow insecurity.

Power and Influence in a Globalized World

Power and influence in a globalized world

20 Feb 2018

Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS. Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer, Tim Sweijs, Mathew J. Burrows, Hugo van Manen. Today the ability to get other states to act in the international system may be characterized more by formal networks of influence than by traditional measures […]

Making Sense of European Defense

Making sense of European defence

20 Dec 2017

European defence cooperation appears to have gained momentum. Particularly in the EU, new cooperation initiatives, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation, the European Defence Fund and a Coordinated Annual Review on Defence, address a number of weaknesses that defence cooperation was suffering from. It is clear that a number of external incentives have spurred on recent quick […]

Kremlin House of Mirrors

Inside the Kremlin House of Mirrors: how liberal democracies can counter Russian disinformation and societal interference

12 Dec 2017

Russia’s disinformation campaigns have targeted liberal democracies in Europe and North America with the goal to undermine societal coherence and distort the democratic process. The methods employed by the Kremlin include the dissemination of false, misleading and manipulative information and bear resemblance to the techniques, tactics and procedures used by the Soviet Union. The past […]

Aardobservatie en Veiligheid

Folder Aardobservatie en Veiligheid

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is Ao vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassing al gebruikt worden, of […]

Folder Aardobservatie

Folder Aardobservatie, Voedsel, Klimaat en Biodiversiteit

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is AO vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassingen al gebruikt worden, of […]

Folder Aardobservatie Belang

Folder Belang en Toepassing van Aardobservatie

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is AO vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassingen al gebruikt worden, of […]

Notitie Risico-Analyse in Onzekerheid: Blockchain (Kansen en Bedreigingen)

6 Dec 2017

De wereld verandert snel. Dat er sprake is van een ‘technologische tsunami’ wordt breed erkend. Desondanks worden we niet zelden overvallen door rap opkomende technologieën die, naast nieuwe kansen, ook nieuwe bedreigingen inhouden die soms veel verder gaan dan wat we op grond van onze ervaringen uit het verleden konden verwachten. Niemand kan de precieze […]

Notitie Risico-Analyse AI

Notitie Risico-Analyse in onzekerheid: Artificial Intelligence (Kansen en Bedreigingen)

6 Dec 2017

De wereld verandert snel. Dat er sprake is van een ‘technologische tsunami’ wordt breed erkend. Desondanks worden we niet zelden overvallen door rap opkomende technologieën die, naast nieuwe kansen, ook nieuwe bedreigingen inhouden die soms veel verder gaan dan wat we op grond van onze ervaringen uit het verleden konden verwachten. Niemand kan de precieze […]

Dark Side of the Coin

Monthly Alert: New Security Threats and Opportunities - The Dark Side of the Security Coin

23 Nov 2017

2017 is not over yet, but the year was ridden with alarming push notifications buzzing on our mobile phones. Political events are covered around the clock – from Trump’s Twitter antics to terrorist attacks sowing destruction around the world. In this constant barrage of news, it is easy to get caught up in today’s incidents, […]

Strategic Alert: Breaking the deadlock - Policy options for dealing with North Korea

22 Nov 2017

The ongoing crisis between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the international community represents a textbook case of coercive diplomacy. The international community sought to coerce North Korea to give up its nuclear and missile programs. So far, all efforts failed. The election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States has […]

UN Peacekeeping More Effective

Progress on UN Peacekeeping reform: HIPPO and beyond

25 Oct 2017

UN peace operations increasingly find themselves deployed in countries where there is no peace to keep, where insurgencies are ongoing, and where peacekeepers face asymmetric threats. In these environments, UN peace operations are asked to perform increasingly challenging tasks to assist governments and to stabilise countries. This requires adequate UN mandates, as well as appropriate […]

Dutch Foreign Relations Index

Monthly alert: Dutch Foreign Relations Index

19 Oct 2017

How should the Dutch government prioritize partnerships with other nations? Which countries are strategically important? Which are compatible in terms of shared values? Traditionally, Dutch foreign policy has a dual orientation: the pursuit of Dutch interests on the one hand and the adherence to and promotion of norm-based values on the other. How to handle relationships in a increasingly connected and complex world? HCSS is developing a Dutch Foreign Relations Index (DFRI) as an analytical basis for a framework to provide guidance on this.

Grote bewegingen, grote impact

Grote bewegingen, grote impact. Eerste verkennende studie naar belangrijke trends en maatschappelijke vraagstukken voor de politie

29 Sep 2017

De politie in Nederland heeft te maken met een snel veranderende omgeving en een dynamische samenleving, waarin nieuwe veiligheidsvraagstukken zich in rap tempo aandienen. Dergelijke vraagstukken staan niet op zichzelf en maken onderdeel uit van een serie mondiale ontwikkelingen waarmee de Nederlandse samenleving wordt geconfronteerd. Om haar koers, positie en inzet in de toekomst vast […]

India Great power

Strategic Alert: Is India Catching Great Power Assertivitis?

20 Sep 2017

Previous HCSS monitors found India to be significantly less assertive than the other great powers. In our 2016 Great Power Assertivitis study, we even claimed that the subcontinent was the sole exception to the rule that great powers seem to exhibit a quasi-pathological proclivity to throw around their weight in negatively assertive ways. In our […]

Geopolitics 2017

Monthly alert: The changing international order: Geodynamics in 2017

18 Sep 2017

To many, the world seems to be on fire. A small, newly nuclear-armed authoritarian country is incessantly taunting the world’s sole remaining superpower. That superpower itself is now increasingly seen even by some of its staunchest allies as a “threat to world peace”. Russia’s large military exercise along its Western borders has Europeans on their […]

Rise of Populist Parties

The rise of Populist Sovereignism: what it is, where it comes from and what it means for international security and defense

14 Sep 2017

This study looks at the foreign and security policies of 17 Populist Sovereignist political parties and analyzes the implications for international security and defense. Populist Sovereignism (PopSov) did not begin with Brexit nor did it end with Marine Le Pen losing the French Presidential election in May 2017. PopSov Parties reject the current political establishment […]

Energy Transition

Energy transition and demand for raw materials

6 Sep 2017

Energy transition, necessary for the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement and the delivery of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, requires development and large-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies. These will increase global demand for different minerals and metals, what mandates a wide range of adjustments at the state level. The need to re-think, reduce, […]

Van exporteur naar importeur - de verander(en)de rol van aardgas in Nederland

30 Aug 2017

Na de ontdekking van het Groningen aardgasveld in 1959, het grootste gasveld in West-Europa, is Nederland meer dan een halve eeuw zelfvoorzienend geweest met deze energiebron. Het keerpunt kwam door de aardbeving in Huizinge in de provincie Groningen in augustus 2012 met een kracht van 3,6 op de schaal van Richter. die gebeurtenis heeft geleid […]

Geo-economic china silk road

A Road to Riches or a Road to Ruin? The Geo-economic Implications of China’s New Silk Road

15 Aug 2017

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project was formally introduced by Chinese President Xi-Jinping in 2013. The project, aimed at integrating trade and investment in Eurasia, encompasses over $900 billion in planned investments of infrastructure across Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). A dedicated forum for cooperation with […]

Political Violence Alert

Monthly Alert August 2017 - Political Violence Alert

3 Aug 2017

Political violence is real and present. How, why and when political violence manifests itself is crucial for turning early warning into early action. The earlier decision- and policymakers are made aware of the potential for imminent outbursts of violence, the sooner they can act to manage or mitigate the consequences or even deter the occurrence […]

Other Side of the Coin

Monthly Alert: New Security Threats and Opportunities Alert - The Other Side of the Security Coin

6 Jul 2017

The global commentariat has relentlessly bombarded international op-ed pages with accounts of crises, risks, and global dangers. And this is not without reason: we certainly live in times of great geopolitical upheaval. But we must not lose sight of the other side of the security coin, one that recognizes societal resilience as a counterweight to […]

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