Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Pricy Perceptions: Can the Economy Predict Euroscepticism?

6 Sep 2018

In a time of Brexit and growing populism in Europe, economic conditions are never too far from the picture. Rising unemployment and inflation can be important drivers of Euroscepticism, sometimes even in times of economic growth. This snapshot explains the connection between the economy and changing attitudes towards the E.U. While economic conditions are important […]

Global Security Pulse August 2018: (Russian) Political Warfare

30 Aug 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia and consists of three separate parts: A table of the main trends regarding the threat of political warfare, […]

Towards tighter markets before peak oil demand

29 Aug 2018

Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to […]

Global Security Pulse July 2018: Vertical tensions

26 Jul 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month’s edition explores trends on the vertical tensions between individuals, national governments, and the European Union, and presents novel developments regarding Euroscepticism, trust in governing institutions in the Netherlands and Europe, and the effects on the international order. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes […]

Appendix Interdependence and Power

Appendix to Influence and Power in a Globalized World

11 Jul 2018

Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS. The Method Appendix to the study Influence and Power in a Globalized World reviews the theoretical justifications of each sub-dimension included in the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index. It also includes a broader discussion of the data series […]

GSP June 2018

Global Security Pulse June 2018: General Security Scan (open scan)

27 Jun 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we conduct an open scan, identifying threats and novel insights on the international order, particularly in the categories of trade and economics, climate and environment, technology, and megatrends. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies […]

Effective Dutch Climate Measures

Effective Dutch climate measures require an international approach

20 Jun 2018

The Dutch government is about to reach a general agreement on an ambitious national climate accord. This accord is designed to prepare the Netherlands for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 49% by 2030. Read the Policy Comment on the Dutch ambitions by Strategic Energy Analyst Jan Frederik Braun and Strategic Advisor Lucia van […]

Global Balance of Power in Cyberspace

A balance of power in cyberspace

15 Jun 2018

Cyberspace is managed by stakeholders from civil society, the private sector, and, to a lesser degree, by governments. The latter, however, is increasingly asserting its role in cyberspace, leading to a redistribution of power in which States are not only competing with other stakeholders, but also amongst each other. All cyberspace users thus face a power […]

Global Security Pulse May 2018: Migration and Security

1 Jun 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we focus on Security and Migration, identifying new tensions in Europe and challenges to the international order. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured […]

Sterke schouders, gedeelde verantwoordelijkheid

30 May 2018

Het aantal politieke ambtsdragers dat op jaarlijkse basis te maken krijgt met agressie en geweld is toegenomen ten opzichte van voorgaande jaren. Om deze problematiek effectief het hoofd te bieden is er in de afgelopen jaren een breed instrumentarium ontwikkeld, variërend van leidraden en campagnes tot bestuurlijke en strafrechtelijke maatregelen. Echter, waar geweld tegen overheidsmedewerkers in […]

Making cities in conflict areas more resilient

28 May 2018

By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents […]

Ensuring awareness and resilience cybersecurity

Cybersecurity: Ensuring awareness and resilience of the private sector across Europe in face of mounting cyber risks

23 May 2018

This study on cybersecurity, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), examines the impact of cyber-related threats and challenges on corporate Europe and the degree of engagement of European businesses in tackling issues at stake. Although the new digitization era offers huge economic and social opportunities, it also changes the nature and magnitude of […]

GSP Interstate Military Competition

Global Security Pulse April 2018: Interstate military competition

25 Apr 2018

The Global Security Pulse enables you to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. This month we present novel and must-read developments on interstate military competition. With the resurgence of geopolitical competition and the proliferation of technological advancements, interstate military competition is rapidly changing with the emergence of new arms races and contests. Much […]

Strategische Monitor 2017-2018

Strategische Monitor: Stilte voor de Storm?

13 Apr 2018

In de monitor 2017-2018 hebben HCSS en Instituut Clingendael wederom door middel van verscheidene methodes de ontwikkelingen in de internationale orde gemonitord en geduid. Deze orde blijkt weerbaarder voor spanningen dan vaak wordt gedacht, en Nederland blijft goed gepositioneerd in dit internationale krachtenveld. De afgelopen vijf jaar gedroegen de grote mogendheden zich assertiever, echter in 2017 was […]

resilient cities safe societies

Resilient cities, safe societies

28 Feb 2018

In his well-known book The End of Power, Moises Naim argues that urbanization – which he regards as “the most aggressively power-transforming aspect of the mobility revolution” – will have “intense” consequences for the distribution of power within a country. The emerging role of cities in world politics makes governance of cities not just a […]

Flow Security Dutch Defense Policies FI

Flow Security and Dutch Defense and Security Policies

26 Feb 2018

In a world of complex supply chains, global flows are critical to the welfare of societies at large. They yield enormous economic, social, and cultural value, whether through trade, foreign investment, tourism or the exchange of knowledge and ideas. Mounting interconnectedness, however, also facilitates the growth of negative flows such as human trafficking, the trade in illicit goods including arms and drugs, international terrorism, and cybercrime, which have the potential to disrupt and undermine the resilience of societies. While fundamentally dependent on global flows, modern societies are also critically vulnerable to flow insecurity.

Power and Influence in a Globalized World

Power and influence in a globalized world

20 Feb 2018

Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS. Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer, Tim Sweijs, Mathew J. Burrows, Hugo van Manen. Today the ability to get other states to act in the international system may be characterized more by formal networks of influence than by traditional measures […]

Making Sense of European Defense

Making sense of European defence

20 Dec 2017

European defence cooperation appears to have gained momentum. Particularly in the EU, new cooperation initiatives, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation, the European Defence Fund and a Coordinated Annual Review on Defence, address a number of weaknesses that defence cooperation was suffering from. It is clear that a number of external incentives have spurred on recent quick […]

Kremlin House of Mirrors

Inside the Kremlin House of Mirrors: how liberal democracies can counter Russian disinformation and societal interference

12 Dec 2017

Russia’s disinformation campaigns have targeted liberal democracies in Europe and North America with the goal to undermine societal coherence and distort the democratic process. The methods employed by the Kremlin include the dissemination of false, misleading and manipulative information and bear resemblance to the techniques, tactics and procedures used by the Soviet Union. The past […]

Aardobservatie en Veiligheid

Folder Aardobservatie en Veiligheid

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is Ao vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassing al gebruikt worden, of […]

Folder Aardobservatie

Folder Aardobservatie, Voedsel, Klimaat en Biodiversiteit

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is AO vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassingen al gebruikt worden, of […]

Folder Aardobservatie Belang

Folder Belang en Toepassing van Aardobservatie

8 Dec 2017

In de wereld van vandaag is de beschikbaarheid van data en informatie enorm toegenomen. Aardobservatie (AO) is één van de methodes om data te verzamelen en tot informatie te verwerken. Niettemin is AO vaak nog omgeven door onbekendheid, zeker bij het grote publiek. En dat terwijl op velerlei vlakken AO toepassingen al gebruikt worden, of […]

Notitie Risico-Analyse in Onzekerheid: Blockchain (Kansen en Bedreigingen)

6 Dec 2017

De wereld verandert snel. Dat er sprake is van een ‘technologische tsunami’ wordt breed erkend. Desondanks worden we niet zelden overvallen door rap opkomende technologieën die, naast nieuwe kansen, ook nieuwe bedreigingen inhouden die soms veel verder gaan dan wat we op grond van onze ervaringen uit het verleden konden verwachten. Niemand kan de precieze […]

Notitie Risico-Analyse AI

Notitie Risico-Analyse in onzekerheid: Artificial Intelligence (Kansen en Bedreigingen)

6 Dec 2017

De wereld verandert snel. Dat er sprake is van een ‘technologische tsunami’ wordt breed erkend. Desondanks worden we niet zelden overvallen door rap opkomende technologieën die, naast nieuwe kansen, ook nieuwe bedreigingen inhouden die soms veel verder gaan dan wat we op grond van onze ervaringen uit het verleden konden verwachten. Niemand kan de precieze […]

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