Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Strategic by design: Making EU development cooperation work for critical raw materials

8 Sep 2026

New HCSS policy brief: The EU’s critical raw material partnerships need to move from political agreements to investable, mutually beneficial supply chains, write Irina Patrahau, Fiona De Cuyper and Isis Ketelaar. Development cooperation can provide the enabling conditions, from infrastructure and skills to governance and environmental safeguards. The next EU budget offers a crucial opportunity to better align development and CRM financing.

Gemeenten onder druk: Veiligheidsuitdagingen in kleinstedelijke en plattelandsgemeenten

17 Aug 2026

Hoe blijven kleinstedelijke en plattelandsgemeenten de komende tien tot vijftien jaar grip houden op een steeds complexere veiligheidsopgave? In deze nieuwe HCSS-verkenning laten Thijs van Aken en Gerben Bakker zien waar de grootste drukpunten ontstaan en welke keuzes nodig zijn om de samenwerking tussen gemeenten en politie toekomstbestendig te maken.

HCSS Publieksmonitor Maatschappelijke Stabiliteit | Hoofdlijnen Zomerpeiling 2026

28 Jul 2026

Nederlanders geven de maatschappelijke stabiliteit opnieuw een 6,1, maar achter dit stabiele cijfer groeit de maatschappelijke verdeeldheid, blijkt uit de HCSS Publieksmonitor Maatschappelijke Stabiliteit. De nieuwe Zomerpeiling laat zien dat zorgen verschuiven van geopolitieke dreigingen naar binnenlandse spanningen, terwijl migratie het meest bepalende thema blijft. Lees nu de belangrijkste bevindingen en aanbevelingen.

Breakdown of the International Order? Strategic Options for Small and Middle Powers

7 Jul 2026

The international order is fragmenting, but small and middle powers (SMPs) are not powerless. A new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi, Stephanie Govaerts, Noemie Jacq, Sven Koopmans and Tim Sweijs sets out four strategic options for SMPs and argues that flexible, issue-specific coalitions offer the most promising path for protecting rules, strengthening resilience and shaping future governance. The report also lays out five key recommendations for the governments of SMPs.

Beyond Borders: Chinese Use of Foreign Interference Tactics in Dutch Strategic Industries

3 Jul 2026

A new HCSS and China Knowledge Network (CKN) report by Benedetta Girardi and Hans Horan examines how Chinese foreign interference affects Dutch strategic industries, including semiconductors, maritime industries, and aerospace. The study finds that interference activities form part of a long-term systemic strategy and calls for a more coordinated, resilience-based approach to protecting Dutch economic and technological security.

Two Agenda’s, One Sea: How security and nature in the North Sea can reinforce each other

3 Jul 2026

New HCSS study: How can security and nature in the North Sea reinforce one another? In “Two Agendas, One Sea”, Frank Bekkers and Pieter-Jan Vandoren show that closer alignment between maritime security and ecological objectives can deliver tangible benefits. From dual-use sensors to shared monitoring and enforcement, the study identifies practical opportunities for cooperation and outlines how targeted pilot projects can help turn these opportunities into reality.

Europe's Strategic Trap: Why Russia's Sub-Threshold Coercion Is Succeeding and How to Stop It

30 Jun 2026

Russia’s sub-threshold attacks on Europe are not isolated incidents, but part of a deliberate strategy to weaken support for Ukraine. In a new HCSS report, Markus Iven, Ethan Mansfield, Nicole Eichstaedt and Tim Sweijs argue that Europe’s current response is failing and outline a new “4D Strategy” to Deny, Disrupt, Degrade and Deter Russian coercion: “Every Russian sub-threshold attack should trigger more support for Ukraine and impose greater costs on Russia’s war effort.”

Lessons That Transfer: Observations from the Russo-Ukraine War for European Land Forces

16 Jun 2026

What lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war will remain relevant in future NATO land operations? In a new HCSS paper, Tim Sweijs, Jan Feldhusen, Markus Iven and Björn de Heer identify four tactical developments reshaping European land warfare: persistent battlefield transparency, AI-enabled intelligence fusion, the human factor and mass precision effects. Their findings highlight urgent priorities for force design, doctrine and military adaptation over the next three to five years.

Defensieplanning: Voorbij de Platformlogica | Gevechtskracht als samenhangend systeem voor de Nederlandse Krijgsmacht

15 Jun 2026

Nieuwe tanks, fregatten en F-35’s versterken de Nederlandse krijgsmacht, maar zijn niet voldoende voor duurzame gevechtskracht. In een nieuw HCSS-paper laat gastauteur Leo van der Meiden zien waarom defensieplanning voorbij de traditionele platformlogica moet kijken. De sleutel ligt in samenhangende ketens, voortzettingsvermogen, regeneratie en aanpassingsvermogen. Wat betekent dat voor de komende Defensienota?

The Unspoken Guardians of the Internet: Why Non-profit Cybersecurity Matters for Public Safety and Global Resilience

2 Jun 2026

Non-profit cybersecurity organisations are essential to global cyber resilience, public safety, and the continuity of the digital economy, this new HCSS report by Hans Horan, Ron Stoop and Jan Feldhusen shows. Despite protecting critical infrastructure, supporting SMEs, and preventing billions in potential losses, these organisations remain structurally underfunded and under-recognised. The report calls for governments and industry to provide sustained, long-term support for the sector.

HCSS Focus | Dreigingssentiment migratie

27 May 2026

Migratie wordt structureel door veel Nederlanders als de belangrijkste maatschappelijke dreiging gezien; belangrijker dan oorlog, economische afhankelijkheid of geopolitieke spanningen. In de nieuwe HCSS Focus analyseren Gerben Bakker en Jesse Kommandeur hoe migratiebezorgdheid samenhangt met gevoelens van controleverlies, politieke stagnatie en afnemend vertrouwen in de overheid. De analyse laat zien waarom het migratiedossier steeds meer een stresstest wordt voor bestuurlijke legitimiteit en maatschappelijke stabiliteit.

Intersecting Futures: Global Trends Shaping and Shaped by Climate Change over the Next Century

26 May 2026

Climate change is reshaping global power, security, and economic stability. In Intersecting Futures, Thijs van Aken and Laura Birkman examine how climate impacts will interact with geopolitical, economic, and societal trends through 2100. The paper shows why adaptation capacity will determine future winners and losers – and why faster, coordinated action is essential. “Climate change will define not just environmental outcomes, but the balance of power in the 21st century,” Van Aken and Birkman warn. “Policymakers must treat adaptation as a strategic priority now, not a future concern.”

Building Europe's alternative fuels industry for military resilience

19 May 2026

A new HCSS report warns that Europe’s military fuel readiness is increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions and underinvestment in alternative fuels. The study argues that SAF, HVO and synthetic fuels can strengthen resilience, but only if governments treat fuel production as a strategic defence capability and accelerate coordinated civil-military investment.

No Fuel, No Fight: The Dutch Fuel Industry and European Military Readiness

12 May 2026

Europe’s fuel system is not ready for war, new HCSS report by Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop and Lucia van Geuns warns. Declining refining capacity and rising import dependence are creating a structural gap between supply and demand. In a conflict scenario, aviation fuel deficits in the EU could reach 24%, with even larger shortfalls in the Netherlands. The report outlines five priorities to strengthen fuel resilience across the EU and NATO.

Twee agenda’s, één zee: Hoe veiligheid en natuur op de Noordzee elkaar kunnen versterken

23 Apr 2026

Nieuwe HCSS-verkenning: Hoe kunnen veiligheid en natuur op de Noordzee elkaar versterken? Het nieuwe HCSS rapport “Twee agenda’s, één zee” door Frank Bekkers en Pieter-Jan Vandoren laat zien dat betere afstemming tussen maritieme veiligheid en ecologie concrete voordelen oplevert. Van dual-use sensoren tot gezamenlijke monitoring en handhaving: de studie identificeert praktische kansen én schetst hoe deze via gerichte pilots gerealiseerd kunnen worden.

Catching Up: Europe’s Path to Strategic Autonomy in the Defence Industry

22 Apr 2026

HCSS’s new joint report with Clingendael maps and explores the challenging issues of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). Authors Floor Stoelinga, Karen van Loon, Davis Ellison, Ron Stoop and Dick Zandee offer a menu for policymakers to use when considering pressing decisions on long-term investments and capabilities. The study also identifies necessary reforms—including ensuring transparency and preventing waste and fraud, grouping projects more efficiently, and managing demand signals.

HCSS Publieksmonitor Maatschappelijke Stabiliteit | Hoofdlijnen Voorjaarspeiling 2026

21 Apr 2026

Hoe stabiel is Nederland volgens Nederlanders zelf? De nieuwste HCSS Publieksmonitor laat een stabiel rapportcijfer zien, maar ook groeiende zorgen over externe dreigingen, interne spanningen en bestuurlijke slagkracht. Wat zegt dit over de veerkracht van onze samenleving en de uitdagingen voor beleid? “De stabiliteit van Nederland oogt solide, maar onder dat oppervlak zien we een duidelijke stapeling van zorgen. Vooral de snelheid waarmee externe dreigingen weer zwaarder wegen, is opvallend en relevant voor beleid,” aldus hoofdauteur Jesse Kommandeur.

Reshaping the international legal order: China's strategic use of lawfare and lessons learned for Europe

16 Apr 2026

A new HCSS report examines how China uses lawfare to reshape the international legal order from within. By reinterpreting norms, building parallel institutions, and leveraging legal asymmetries, Beijing is expanding its influence across trade, technology, and maritime governance. The report outlines what this means for Europe and how policymakers can strengthen resilience and maintain normative influence in an increasingly contested legal landscape.

HCSS Focus | Vrouwelijke onveiligheidservaring

14 Apr 2026

Nieuwe HCSS Focus: hoe veilig voelen vrouwen zich in Nederland? Een kwart van de vrouwen ervaart frequent onveiligheid, vooral jongvolwassenen. Deze verkenning laat zien hoe ervaringen, maatschappelijke normen en verantwoordelijkheidsgevoel samenkomen in een structureel veiligheidsvraagstuk. Met nieuwe data en analyse biedt HCSS inzicht in de aard van vrouwelijke onveiligheidservaring én aanknopingspunten voor beleid en maatschappelijk debat.

Between the Berlaymont and the Glass Palace: The relative roles of the European Union and NATO in European defence

31 Mar 2026

HCSS’s new report explores the complex relationship between the EU and NATO in European defence. Authors Davis Ellison and Daniel Fiott offer a roadmap for policymakers navigating this pivotal moment in European defence. Despite persistent tensions, both institutions remain central to European security. The study identifies practical reforms - ranging from Berlin Plus updates to closer political coordination - that can strengthen cooperation, enhance Europe’s self-sufficiency, and reduce reliance on the United States.

“A Little World War”: Lessons From the Spanish Civil War for Contemporary Strategists

30 Mar 2026

A new HCSS guest paper by Dr. Iskander Rehman examines the war in Ukraine through the lens of an oft-cited but seldom explored analogy: the Spanish Civil War. It shows how protracted proxy wars often become global testing grounds for military training and innovation, and why democracies risk falling behind if they misread or underreact. The paper outlines key lessons on escalation, military learning, and the global nature of contemporary conflict.

Making Russia Fear Escalation Again

26 Mar 2026

Russia’s hybrid war is expanding, exploiting NATO’s reluctance to escalate. Alexander Mattelaer’s latest HCSS paper argues that defensive resilience alone cannot stop Moscow. NATO must undermine the Kremlin’s confidence by demonstrating credible escalation options and reinforcing political will. “If NATO wants Moscow to back down, Russian leaders must fear escalation again,” Mattelaer warns. The paper lays out how Europe can restore strategic restraint and counter Russia’s confidence-driven hybrid strategy.

Climate Stress and EU Cohesion: Strengthening European Resilience through Climate Adaptation

24 Mar 2026

While heat, drought and wildfires disproportionately affect Southern and Southeastern Europe, flooding increasingly impacts Central and Northern regions. This new HCSS report by Ron Stoop and Laura Birkman shows how uneven climate impacts risk straining EU cohesion and decision-making. As climate hazards intensify, diverging national interests could weaken Europe’s collective response capacity. The report argues that targeted adaptation, including in agriculture, infrastructure and coastal resilience, can reduce these tensions and strengthen the EU’s economic security and political stability.

Frontiers of Influence: Counter Measures to Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference in the Grey Zone

18 Mar 2026

The report Frontiers of Influence analyses Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) across Europe’s Eastern borders. The study highlights a shift toward "whole-of-society" models, noting that high-capacity states like Estonia treat information defense as a "continuous governmental task."Recommendation: To move beyond reactive measures, states must implement a proactive, layered defense integrating strategic communication, regulatory enforcement, and deep societal resilience. Safeguarding democracy requires "not only technical tools but also sustained political will and societal cohesion."

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