Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

Library

Date

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Search

Research Topics

De Prijs van Conflict: Economische Gevolgen van een Militaire Crisis rondom Taiwan voor Nederland en de EU

23 Feb 2024

De kans op een militaire crisis in Oost-Azië, in het bijzonder een militair conflict rondom Taiwan, is het afgelopen decennium toegenomen. Dit nieuwe HCSS-rapport door Joris Teer, Davis Ellison en Abe de Ruijter schetst de geopolitiek-militaire context waarbinnen de Nederlands-Europese handelsrelaties met Taiwan plaatsvinden, en brengt de waarschijnlijke en mogelijke economische gevolgen van een (gewapend) conflict rondom Taiwan in kaart.

Position paper | Kernwapens en Europese Veiligheid

19 Feb 2024

Zonder de VS, hebben Europese NAVO-lidstaten beperkte middelen om Rusland af te schrikken. Met het oog op de verschillende trends en onzekerheden, moet Europa zich richten op geavanceerde conventionele wapens voor afschrikking van Rusland, schrijft HCSS senior strategisch analist in deze position paper, ter voorbereiding van een rondetafelgesprek met de commissie voor Buitenlandse Zaken van de Tweede Kamer over spanningen in Europa met betrekking tot kernwapens.

De Strategische Monitor 2023 | Barsten en Blokken: Confrontatie en Samenwerking in een Wereld van Wisselende Coalities

13 Feb 2024

De wereld, en zeker ook Europa, wordt onveiliger. Sinds meer dan 30 jaar is er mondiaal niet zo veel gewapend conflict geweest als nu. Ondanks de groeiende belangentegenstellingen en de daarmee toenemende confrontatie tussen de belangrijke actoren in de wereld, is samenwerking nog steeds mogelijk én nodig, concluderen onderzoekers van HCSS en Clingendael in de Strategische Monitor 2023. Maar deze samenwerking krijgt vooral invulling door blokvorming en wisselende ad hoc coalities. In deze wereld van barsten en blokken moet Europa zijn eigen samenwerkingsverbanden met vertrouwde en minder vertrouwde partners vormen, passend bij de rol van Europa als geopolitieke actor.

Fresh Wind or Business as Usual: What the Indonesian Elections Mean for Dutch-Indonesian Relations

12 Feb 2024

How will a new Indonesian president shape the country’s position in the Indo-Pacific and its ties with the Netherlands? Since the outgoing president Jokowi has exhausted his term limit, political change is guaranteed following the presidential elections on 14 February 2024. This snapshot by assistant analyst Alisa Hoenig and strategic analysts Benedetta Girardi and Paul van Hooft investigates how the outcome will affect Indonesia’s role as a potentially crucial player and key cooperation partner for Europe and the Netherlands in the Indo-Pacific.

Position Paper: Toekomstige Uitdagingen in het Midden-Oosten

9 Feb 2024

Europa moet maritiem op zijn eigen benen kunnen staan, stelt HCSS strategisch analist Frederik Mertens in deze position paper, die hij schreef ter voorbereiding van een rondetafelgesprek met de Tweede Kamer commissie voor Buitenlandse Zaken. De crisis in het Midden-Oosten is na de Russische inval in Oekraïne een nieuwe wake-up call voor Europa: de wereld is in korte tijd angstaanjagend veel gevaarlijker geworden, en Europa is nog steeds volledig van de VS afhankelijk om de handelsroutes te beveiligen.

Campagnes tegen hybride dreigingen: een handleiding

5 Feb 2024

Europese samenlevingen zijn doelwit van hybride aanvallen van buitenlandse actoren, met als doel om democratische processen te beïnvloeden en kwetsbaarheden uit te buiten. Als reactie hierop zoeken overheden, waaronder de Nederlandse, naar een proactieve benadering tegen hybride dreigingen om niet langer een figuurlijke schietschijf te zijn voor de acties van autoritaire regimes. Hoewel zij uiteenlopende strategieën hebben opgesteld, blijft counter hybride samenwerking vaak nog rudimentair en bij gelegenheid georganiseerd. Deze HCSS notitie door Gerben Bakker en Tim Sweijs biedt daarom een handleiding voor het opstellen en uitvoeren van counter hybride campagnes.

Germany’s Zeitenwende and the consequences for German-Dutch defence cooperation

31 Jan 2024

This new report by the Clingendael Institute and HCSS addresses the potential consequences of the German Zeitenwende for Germany’s role in European security, and more specifically for the German-Dutch defence cooperation within the NATO framework, with a specific focus on the enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania and NATO’s New Force Model.

Getting Them On Board: Partners and Avenues for European Engagement in Indo-Pacific Maritime Security

30 Jan 2024

Europe depends on the Indo-Pacific for trade, but has limited capacities to secure its interests in the region. This new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi and Paul van Hooft identifies regional partners with whom Europe should collaborate to deepen its engagement. It first maps the suitability of all Indo-Pacific powers for cooperation before zooming in on a group of countries that are promising as partners but remain somewhat ambivalent towards Europe.

Cyber Arms Watch Methodology

29 Jan 2024

HCSS presents: the Cyber Arms Watch monitor, offering a transparency index on the offensive cyber capabilities of states. It compares the degree to which states are transparent about their declared cyber capabilities to outside perceptions of those capabilities.

Maritime Security in a Time of Renewed Interstate Competition

25 Jan 2024

The rapid intensification of geopolitical disorder and growing number of threats demand a greater role from the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) and its allies. But European naval forces declined sharply after the Cold War, raising questions about the current state of Dutch and European naval capabilities. In light of the recent political and military ambitions, the RNLN will therefore face a series of difficult choices when it comes to future investments and strategy. This new HCSS report by Paul van Hooft, Davis Ellison and Frederik Mertens seeks to explore these questions, and offers a series of recommendations that may help answer them.

Increasing Lithium Supply Security for Europe’s Growing Battery Industry: Recommendations for a Resilient Supply Chain

22 Jan 2024

Lithium is key for global decarbonisation and powering the future. The booming demand and high geographic concentration of this critical raw material (CRM), means that Europe needs to create a more resilient and diversified lithium supply chain. This new paper by guest author Bryan Bille, part of the HCSS Battery Minerals series, assesses Europe’s lithium supply vulnerabilities, examines opportunities and provides recommendations to strengthen Europe’s lithium supply chain.

Cyber Transparency Value Chain: From Awareness and Understanding to Attribution, Monitoring and Sanctioning

16 Jan 2024

Navigating the digital landscape requires a complex balancing act between various interests, threats, and resilience. HCSS and the CyberPeace Institute are working together to increase cyber transparency, to inform policy processes and capacity building efforts, and contribute to accountability efforts. This new joint report provides an overview of the monitors and observatories developed to date by each organisation, to enable a broader understanding of threat actors, the impact and harms of cyber incidents, and accountability efforts related to laws and norms in cyberspace.

Notitie | Het Onafhankelijk Onderzoek: Zonder wet géén waarheid en géén onafhankelijkheid

15 Jan 2024

Bij vele gebeurtenissen waar duidelijk sprake was van een ernstige maatschappelijke verontrusting werden door verschillende overheden incidentele ‘onafhankelijke’ onderzoekscommissies ingesteld. Maar bij deze commissies was nooit wettelijk vastgelegd waaruit die ‘onafhankelijkheid’ eigenlijk bestond. Eveneens was nergens wettelijk vastgelegd wat de onderzoeksbevoegdheden en/of spelregels van deze commissies waren. Voor de veiligheid in onze maatschappij is het van groot belang dat het toezicht zowel op de naleving van de wettelijke regels, alsmede op de sectorale veiligheidsregels , onafhankelijk wordt gemaakt, stelt Prof. mr. Pieter van Vollenhoven in deze nieuwe notitie.

The Dangers and Limitations of the Russian Missile Campaign

11 Jan 2024

This winter Russia again hits Ukraine with a missile campaign. But although this is a serious danger for the Ukrainian people and might shake Western resolve, it hides a fundamental Russian weakness: expensive missiles cannot replace cheap bombs and Russia does not have the missiles to keep up intensive attacks for long, writes HCSS strategic analyst Frederik Mertens.

HCSS Annual Report 2023

21 Dec 2023

HCSS proudly presents our Annual Report! The year 2023 was a year in which the challenges piled up, and power politics dominated the international discourse. This Annual Report offers you a comprehensive overview of the many issues we work on everyday: geopolitics, defence policies, coercion, emerging technologies, economic statecraft, climate change, cyber governance, societal security and public order. As we look forward, we expect another challenging year given the enormous geopolitical turbulence we do not expect to calm down anytime soon. We will be ready to offer our insights – now more than ever.

What the Indo-Pacific means to Europe: trade value, chokepoints, and security risks

20 Nov 2023

Trade between Europe and the Indo-Pacific depends on maritime trade routes. Supplies, however, can easily be disrupted in various chokepoints. This new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi, Paul van Hooft and Giovanni Cisco identifies hot spots and weak points in the global supply chain where Europeans should concentrate their maritime security efforts on a national, unilateral, minilateral or EU level.

Semiconductors in Key European and Indo-Pacific Economies: Geopolitical Risk in the Supply Chains into 2030 and Beyond

20 Nov 2023

What are the core factors that drive semiconductor supply chains amid the current geopolitical climate post-pandemic, and into the near future by 2030? Will there be a secure supply and if so, why or why not? In a new HCSS guest paper, June Park, PhD, analyses the chip supply chain in the context of multiple geopolitical risks, reflecting the industry and government perspectives of countries involved in the supply chain.

Indo-Pacific Security in 2030-35: Links in the Chain

20 Nov 2023

In a world subject to increasing geopolitical competition, global value chains have become significantly vulnerable. Geopolitical threats related to great power competition, political rivalry, and maritime disputes pose serious risks to supply chains worldwide. To avoid the consequences of competition for global trade and supply chains, Jagannath Panda argues that like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific must work together to anticipate risk, minimise exposure, and help each other resist and adapt to sudden shocks brought along by geopolitical threats.

Gas Supply Security in Europe and Asia Beyond 2030

20 Nov 2023

Gas supply security stands at the forefront of global energy concerns, particularly for Europe and Asia. Guest author Philip Geurts highlights the challenges posed by the inflexibility of gas supplies due to long lead times for production projects, exacerbated by the limited versatility of gas exports, whether in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or through pipelines.

Oil Supply Security of Asia and Europe Beyond 2030

20 Nov 2023

In this paper, guest author Philip Geurts explores the ever-growing global demand for oil and the challenges it poses for policymakers in Asia and Europe. Despite the ongoing discourse on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the relentless demographic growth in developing nations and industrial development continue to propel oil demand upwards, projected to hover around 100 million barrels per day into the 2030s.

The U.S.-China Technology War and Taiwan's Semiconductor Role in Geopolitics

20 Nov 2023

In the dynamic landscape of global geopolitics, Taiwan has emerged as a pivotal player in the U.S.-China technology war, particularly in the realm of semiconductor production. With a remarkable contribution of over 60% of advanced chips, Taiwan has positioned itself as a critical hub for technologies driving artificial intelligence, 5G, and advanced military weaponry. This paper by Jiann-Chyuan Wang, delves into the intricate interplay between the U.S.-China trade and technology war, the Chips & Science Act, and Taiwan's semiconductor industry.

Resilient supply of critical commodities by 2030 to the EU and Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan

20 Nov 2023

In a rapidly evolving global landscape, securing a resilient supply chain for critical commodities is a paramount concern for the European Union (EU) and major Asian economies, including Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan. In this paper, Arnold Tukker sheds light on this critical issue in his paper, drawing insights from a workshop organized by HCSS in The Hague on the 7th of March 2023.

The Socio-Political Instability Observer: September 2023

14 Nov 2023

In the September Observer, the experts surveyed share their thoughts on the most pressing developments in international relations during the month of September. For this version of the survey topics included the likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war escalating into a Russia-NATO conflict, what a future U.S. Republican presidency might mean for multilateralism and how Europe should navigate a potential China-Taiwan conflict.

Start with the End: Effect Measurement of Behavioural Influencing in Military Operations

14 Nov 2023

Throughout history, targeting the cognitive environment in order to influence the physical behaviour has been an important factor in deciding the outcome of war, on and off the battlefield. However, carrying out the measurements to determine effectiveness of such operations remains an empty spot in most influencing operations. This HCSS paper aims to provide an overview of methods to measure the effect of behavioural influencing operations in a military context.

GDPR Consent

Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

Privacy policy | Close

Settings

GDPR Consent Settings

Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

Website Statistics

Website statistics collect anonymized information about how the site is used. This information is used to optimize the website and to ensure an optimal user experience.

View details

Functional Cookies

Functional cookies are used to ensure the website works properly and are neccessary to make the site function. These cookies do not collect any personal data.

View details

Forget my settings Deleted!