Research
What are the core factors that drive semiconductor supply chains amid the current geopolitical climate post-pandemic, and into the near future by 2030? Will there be a secure supply and if so, why or why not? This guest paper by June Park, PhD, analyses the chip supply chain in the context of multiple geopolitical risks, reflecting the industry and government perspectives of countries involved in the supply chain.
The paper looks specifically at the flow of chip supply between the key EU member states and main chip manufacturing economies in East Asia – Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China – amid the ongoing technological conflict between the U.S. and China. The paper looks to the EU Chips Act as the source of demand from the European region, along similar lines of other industrial economies for ‘self-aggrandising’ in semiconductor manufacturing capabilities by subsidisation. In the short term, it looks to U.S. pressures to impose export controls on production in mainland China as a critical source of supply chain disruption, while the new developments in chip foundry construction are still underway for the next few years. In the mid-to-long term, it points to the potential geopolitical clash on the Taiwan Strait as the main source of uncertainty in the chip supply chain.
This paper is a query into two crucial questions: ‘Will supply chain risks of the present persist into the near future?’ and ‘What are the impediments to securing stable flows of chip supply to the European region from East Asia amid the U.S.-China tech conflict?’
About the author: June Park, PhD, is a political economist working on the geoeconomics of conflict in the digital economy, observing East Asia, the U.S., Europe and the Gulf. Her work focusses on trade, energy and tech conflicts among nation states as they navigate their distinctive paths into the digital future. Park is an inaugural Asia Fellow of the International Strategy Forum at Schmidt Futures (2022 cohort) and a Nonresident Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research in Washington, DC. She also contributes her expertise to the experts group at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution.
This paper is part of the Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH) Guest Author Series: Access or Absence in an era of geopolitical competition: insights on critical resources, global value chains, and maritime security. Edited by Paul van Hooft, Benedetta Girardi and Alisa Hoenig.
The research for and production of this report was made possible by a financial contribution from the Taipei Representative Office in the Netherlands to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report are the result of independent research. Responsibility for the content rests with the authors and the authors alone.
