Resilient supply of critical commodities by 2030 to the EU and Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan

In a rapidly evolving global landscape, securing a resilient supply chain for critical commodities is a paramount concern for the European Union (EU) and major Asian economies, including Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan. In this paper, Arnold Tukker sheds light on this critical issue in his paper, drawing insights from a workshop organized by HCSS in The Hague on the 7th of March 2023. The workshop, centered on the supply of crucial commodities by 2030, focused on three key categories: energy carriers such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), critical raw materials like cobalt and silicon, and semiconductors. Tukker’s approach involves a comprehensive examination of general aspects of resilient supply, followed by specific considerations for each commodity. 

Tukker’s findings reveal that, with the exception of cobalt, supply chain resilience is not solely a matter of scarcity or concentration in deposits. He emphasizes the importance of technical infrastructure in creating redundancy in supply chains. Notably, Tukker explores the unique challenges presented by cobalt, given the potential demand surpassing known reserves, primarily located in an unstable region. The paper concludes with Tukker proposing strategies to address challenges, such as surveying and identifying new deposits in diverse countries and engineering alternatives to reduce reliance on critical resources. Ultimately, Tukker’s work underscores the importance of creating certainty about future demand to mitigate potential supply crises, offering valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers alike. 

Author: Arnold Tukker, Leiden University

This paper is part of the Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH) Guest Author Series: Access or Absence in an era of geopolitical competition: insights on critical resources, global value chains, and maritime security. Edited by Paul van Hooft, Benedetta Girardi and Alisa Hoenig. 

The research for and production of this report was made possible by a financial contribution from the Taipei Representative Office in the Netherlands to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report are the result of independent research. Responsibility for the content rests with the authors and the authors alone.