Research
Gas supply security stands at the forefront of global energy concerns, particularly for Europe and Asia, as explored by Philip Geurts in his paper titled “Gas Supply Security in Europe and Asia Beyond 2030.” Geurts highlights the challenges posed by the inflexibility of gas supplies due to long lead times for production projects, exacerbated by the limited versatility of gas exports, whether in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or through pipelines. The paper underscores the difficulties in replacing gas in the short term, while acknowledging that demand reduction strategies, such as transitioning to renewable energy sources and alternative fuels like coal or oil, can be implemented within a relatively brief period.
The paper stresses the importance of long-term demand curtailment as an integral aspect of minimising risks to gas supply security. While Europe’s accelerated adoption of renewable energy is expected to decrease its reliance on gas, Asia’s growing economic development is likely to drive increased demand in the region. Geurts points out the persistent dependence on gas imports for both Europe and Asia, with Europe experiencing a decline in production, particularly as the Netherlands shuts down its Groningen gas field. Meanwhile, Asian production growth is anticipated to be outpaced by surging consumption.
Looking ahead, the paper anticipates a concentration of LNG supplies in major players such as the US and Qatar, raising concerns about global LNG market dynamics. Geurts suggests that policymakers in Europe and Asia should prioritize demand reduction strategies to mitigate supply security risks in the 2030s. The example of South Korea and Japan, which have successfully reduced gas dependency through nuclear facility initiatives, accelerated renewable energy deployment, and energy efficiency maximization, serves as a compelling case study for other nations facing similar challenges.
Author: Philip Geurts, Oil Analyst at BloombergNEF
This paper is part of the Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH) Guest Author Series: Access or Absence in an era of geopolitical competition: insights on critical resources, global value chains, and maritime security. Edited by Paul van Hooft, Benedetta Girardi and Alisa Hoenig.
The research for and production of this report was made possible by a financial contribution from the Taipei Representative Office in the Netherlands to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report are the result of independent research. Responsibility for the content rests with the authors and the authors alone.
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