Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Russisch Nucleair Blufpoker: Krankzinnig of Communicatie? | 10 aanbevelingen voor NAVO-bondgenoten

12 Oct 2022

Moskou gebruikt nucleaire dreigementen om de spanningen met de NAVO te managen zonder dat escalatie oncontroleerbaar uit de hand loopt. Dat betekent niet dat het risico van de baan is, want het is de vraag of het Westen deze signalen in voldoende mate opvangt en, belangrijker nog, begrijpt, schrijft gast auteur Majoor Frederik A.J.J. Wintermans in een essay.

Scenariostudie Kernenergie

10 Oct 2022

Op welke manier kan kernenergie in de toekomstige Nederlandse energiemix een onderdeel zijn van het energieaanbod en wat zijn hiervan de kosten en baten? In opdracht van het Ministerie van Economische Zaken onderzocht een consortium bestaande uit Witteveen+Bos, eRisk Group en HCSS deze vraag.

Scenario Study Nuclear Energy | Conclusions and Summary

10 Oct 2022

How can nuclear energy be part of the energy supply in the future energy mix of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe? And what are the costs and benefits? In addition to the question of whether there is an economic role for nuclear power in the electricity system, this study also looks at raw materials and the use of space.

Cobalt mining in the EU: Securing supplies and ensuring energy justice

3 Oct 2022

Renewable energy technologies, the core of the energy transition, are mineral intensive, leaving a large material footprint. This research addresses the case of cobalt, which is largely used in lithium-ion batteries suited for electric cars, and whether the mineral can be mined within the European Union.

Preventing the (Un)thinkable: Escalation Scenarios and Risk Reduction Measures for Russia and NATO following the War in Ukraine

14 Sep 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has reawakened thinking in terms of risks and ‘escalation’. NATO as a whole, and NATO-states individually, must keep a balanced position: do not cave to unacceptable threats, as accommodation is a recipe for further escalation from the Russian side.

Water Governance in Iraq: Enabling a Gamechanger

12 Sep 2022

The dysfunctional decentralization system and the insufficient implementation of the water allocation framework are the two main challenges Iraq needs to address in order to meet water demands in the coming years. In a new joint WPS-Clingendael publication sheds light on ‘unseen’ structural dynamics that impact both the quality and quantity of water in Iraq.

Russian minister of defence and foreign affairs with Indian conterparts

India’s approach to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Example of the BJP’s 'India First' Thinking and What it Means for the West

8 Sep 2022

India’s approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, described as "strategic ambivalence" has disappointed many in the US and Europe who hoped that India, as a democracy, would join them in criticising Russia’s actions. This paper explores the multiple motivators behind India’s approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what the BJP’s geopolitical thinking means for European relations with India and other players in the Indo-Pacific going forward.

Tankopslag in Transitie

30 Aug 2022

Met de juiste beleidsondersteuning wordt de tankopslagsector een aanjager van de energietransitie, die bijdraagt aan het vormgeven van het energielandschap van de komende decennia. Zo concluderen HCSS onderzoekers Irina Patrahau, Michel Rademaker en Lucia van Geuns in een nieuw rapport over de veranderende rol van tankopslag in de energietransitie.

Call for papers: Information-based behavioural influencing and Western practice

29 Aug 2022

As part of the project Platform Influencing Human Behaviour, HCSS is bringing together academic experts and policymakers to explore ethical, legal and military-strategic issues and boundaries involved in information-based behavioural influencing in the military context. Scholars, experts and policymakers are invited to submit a paper on the employment of information-related capabilities to influence human behaviour in the military context, from the perspective of an individual European or NATO country’s perspective.

The Inflation Reduction Act Explained | What it means for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery materials

23 Aug 2022

Is President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) the perfect tool to help the U.S. become leader in clean energy tech? In the first of two papers, HCSS Strategic Advisor Energy & Raw Materials Jeff Amrish Ritoe will analyze the possible impact of the proposed policy changes on the global energy landscape, and share observations on the impact that the IRA can have on an American EV and battery materials supply chain.

Serious Gaming: Grounding and Directing Climate Action

8 Aug 2022

There is no doubt that climate change is severely affecting the entire planet. Anthropogenic carbon emissions catalyze the pace of melting ice caps, soaring temperatures, and decreasing rainfall patterns, creating concerning scenarios for the future. Risks are plenty, and climate action is imperative. This snapshot by HCSS Assistant Analyst Ricardo Pereira Teixeira and Michel Rademaker addresses serious gaming as a critical tool for undertaking climate initiatives and reports on the output from the NATO Crisis Management and Disaster Response (CMDR) Centre of Excellence course on Climate Security in Sofia, Bulgaria.

From the War in Ukraine to the Energy Transition: Searching for a New Balance in the Oil Market

4 Aug 2022

The world oil map is being redrawn, as Russia is looking for new energy markets and the EU looks for alternative producers of fossil fuels. We may aim for an orderly energy transition but in reality the last phase of the fossil fuel era may be relatively chaotic. This HCCS paper aims to shed light on some of the structural issues that contributed to the current crisis, as well as look ahead into some important trends in the oil market up to 2050.

Een Flexibele Organisatie voor Flexibel Optreden | Onderzoek Inrichtingsprincipe 2

27 Jul 2022

Wat zijn de problemen die Defensie ondervindt bij het kunnen voldoen aan planmatige verplichtingen en ad hoc aanvragen voor stand-by en in te zetten eenheden?

IMCCS | Climate Security Snapshot: The Balkans

25 Jul 2022

Countries in the Balkans face unique and concerning interactions between climate-influenced disasters and hostile geopolitical influences, write Elsa Barron and Hugo van Manen in a new IMCCS snapshot.

Iraqi Marshland Women: The True Guardians of the Marshes

7 Jul 2022

The Marshlands of Southern Iraq, often described as the ‘Garden of Eden,’ are under serious threat from the effects of climate change. In a new snapshot, HCSS assistant analyst Kendra Kock argues that Iraqi Marshland women should be considered one of the key stakeholders involved in the decision-making processes concerning the restoration of the Marshes and the livelihoods of its inhabitants.

Seoul’s Changing Indo-Pacific Manifesto and India: Policy Prescriptions for India-ROK Ties

23 Jun 2022

China’s stupendous rise and the subsequent rivalry with the US for global hegemony have forced countries to choose sides; caught between a rock and a hard place, middle powers like India and South Korea have sought to maintain partnerships with both countries in the geo-economic space while precariously balancing the two in the geo-political domain.

Action Needed: Three Priorities for Iraq’s Water Sector

22 Jun 2022

The water situation in Iraq is alarming. In 2021, the country experienced its second driest season in 40 years due to record low rainfall. Located downstream, much of the pressure on Iraq's water resources comes from dam construction in neighbouring countries, the impact of violent conflicts, and the consequences of climate change

Information-based behavioural influencing in the military context: mapping current expert thinking

21 Jun 2022

In information warfare, information-based capabilities are employed to target human cognition, seeking changes in attitudes, perceptions and behaviour by manipulating the flow of information. Even if information has always been used to shape adversary thinking and decision-making, major advancements in ICTs but also cognitive psychology have added to their centrality. As influencing efforts have grown, Western military organisations are shifting their attention to focus on information-based capabilities.

Between War and Peace: 'Hybrid Threats' and NATO's Strategic Concept

16 Jun 2022

In war studies, one can distinguish between the futurists on the one side and the traditionalists on the other: those holding that everything in today’s wars is new versus those holding that what happens today has already been seen in history, albeit in different guises.

Aanpak voor het vaststellen van interventienoodzaak en handelingsperspectief ten aanzien van strategische autonomie op cybersecurity

13 Jun 2022

Hoe kan de strategische autonomie op cybersecurity bewaakt worden? En welke beleidsmaatregelen kunnen – en moeten – in dit kader genomen worden? Nederland is een van de meest gedigitaliseerde landen wereldwijd maar daarmee is onze samenleving ook steeds meer afhankelijk geworden van een goed functionerende digitale infrastructuur. Cybersecurity is cruciaal om dit te bewerkstelligen.

Not When But Why | Embedding Causal Methods in Policy and Programming

8 Jun 2022

The latest HCSS publication provides a non-technical ‘how to’ manual of a causal assessment framework & explains how causal models can be developed, applied, and embedded into development policy and practice.

IMCCS | Decarbonized Defense: The Need for Clean Military Power in the Age of Climate Change

7 Jun 2022

Today the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) launched a new report, Decarbonized Defense: The Need for Clean Military Power in the Age of Climate Change, the first in a series of papers comprising the third annual World Climate and Security Report. The paper warns that militaries must accelerate efforts toward […]

From Lightning to USB-C: Why the iPhone's Upcoming Port Change Signals a More Geopolitical EU

2 Jun 2022

In this technology snapshot, HCSS strategic analyst Hugo van Manen discusses Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference and the reported announcement that Apple will switch the iPhone’s charging port from Lightning to USB-C as of 2023.

Reinvigorating NATO’s Edge: Military Innovation and the Strategic Concept

19 May 2022

What steps can European NATO allies take to manage the expected coming revolution in military affairs and maintain – or attain – a military-technological edge? In this new paper for GLOBSEC, Tim Sweijs sketches the challenges that the Alliance confronts in this endeavour and offers concrete recommendations to address these challenges.

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