The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS is a knowledge institute that conducts independent research. Our goal is to offer fact-based analysis of the challenges that our societies face in order to inform public discourse, public and private strategic decision making and contribute to international and national security in accordance with liberal democratic values.

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Latest Research

Stay up to date with our latest reports, papers, snapshots and alerts.

  • Beyond Borders: Chinese Use of Foreign Interference Tactics in Dutch Strategic Industries

    A new HCSS and China Knowledge Network (CKN) report examines how Chinese foreign interference affects Dutch strategic industries, including semiconductors, maritime industries, and aerospace. The study finds that interference activities form part of a long-term systemic strategy and calls for a more coordinated, resilience-based approach to protecting Dutch economic and technological security.

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  • Two Agenda’s, One Sea: How security and nature in the North Sea can reinforce each other

    New HCSS study: How can security and nature in the North Sea reinforce one another? In “Two Agendas, One Sea”, Frank Bekkers and Pieter-Jan Vandoren show that closer alignment between maritime security and ecological objectives can deliver tangible benefits. From dual-use sensors to shared monitoring and enforcement, the study identifies practical opportunities for cooperation and outlines how targeted pilot projects can help turn these opportunities into reality.

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  • Europe’s Strategic Trap: Why Russia’s Sub-Threshold Coercion Is Succeeding and How to Stop It

    Russia’s sub-threshold attacks on Europe are not isolated incidents, but part of a deliberate strategy to weaken support for Ukraine. In a new HCSS report, Markus Iven, Ethan Mansfield, Nicole Eichstaedt and Tim Sweijs argue that Europe’s current response is failing and outline a new “4D Strategy” to Deny, Disrupt, Degrade and Deter Russian coercion: “Every Russian sub-threshold attack should trigger more support for Ukraine and impose greater costs on Russia’s war effort.”

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  • No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties

    What determines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) can reduce casualties in intrastate conflicts? In the newly published master’s thesis, HCSS Data Scientist Emma Bokel examines 156 countries between 1989 and 2022 using Dynamic Panel GMM and a Causal Forest model to assess both average effects and underlying heterogeneity. The study finds that ODA does not reliably reduce conflict deaths on average, with a persistent “conflict trap” driven by prior-year fatalities. Instead, effectiveness depends on four key conditions: political stability, aid fragmentation, delivery channel, and purpose-specific aid dynamics, leading to policy recommendations emphasising context-sensitive allocation, multilateral delivery in fragile settings, and prevention over de-escalation.

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  • ARES Group | Defence supply chain monitoring: Leveraging geopolitical challenges for sustainability gains

    Rising military tensions, trade disputes, and shifting global power dynamics are exposing defence supply chains to increasing disruption, from shortages of critical raw materials to restrictions on strategic components. In this context, better monitoring has become essential.

    In a recent commentary for The Armament…

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  • Lessons That Transfer: Observations from the Russo-Ukraine War for European Land Forces

    What lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war will remain relevant in future NATO land operations? In a new HCSS paper, Tim Sweijs, Jan Feldhusen, Markus Iven and Björn de Heer identify four tactical developments reshaping European land warfare: persistent battlefield transparency, AI-enabled intelligence fusion, the human factor and mass precision effects. Their findings highlight urgent priorities for force design, doctrine and military adaptation over the next three to five years.

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Trending Topics

Find out what we are currently working on.

Link to: Europe in the Indo-Pacific

Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. HCSS brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research
Link to: Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Deterrence and Arms Control

Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition, by emerging technologies, or refinements in existing technologies. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble. How can Europe shape a reinvigorated arms control regime?

Latest Research
Link to: Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Transatlantic Relations

In the HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations, we study the history and evolution of the transatlantic relationship, looking to understand the deeper ideas and structures behind the changes in the U.S.-European relationship.

Latest Research
Link to: On Future War

On Future War

The nature of war endures, even as its character transforms. Today’s conflicts merge kinetic, connected, and synthetic dimensions. By bridging the perspectives of traditionalists and futurists, we seek to understand both high-tech and low-tech conflict, offering insights that help policymakers navigate an increasingly complex and contested security environment.

Latest Research
Link to: Energy Security

Energy Security

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition.

Latest Research
Link to: Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

HCSS onderzoekt hoe Nederland weerbaar blijft in een tijd van polarisatie, hybride dreigingen, georganiseerde misdaad en internationale spanningen. Met diepgaande analyses voor o.a. de Nederlandse Politie brengen we maatschappelijke kwetsbaarheden, beïnvloeding en lokale veiligheidsdynamieken scherp in beeld.

Latest Research

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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News

Catch up with the latest HCSS media appearances, interviews, op-eds, webinars, columns and more.

New HCSS-China Knowledge Network Report: Chinese Foreign Interference in Dutch Strategic Industries Poses a Systemic Long-Term Challenge

New HCSS Report | Two Agendas, One Sea: Security and Nature in the North Sea Can Reinforce One Another

Expert Insights | Seeing Deterrence Up Close: Notes from Estonia’s Front Line

Podcasts

De Strateeg | Nederlandse grondstoffen als heilige graal in de energietransitie?

Strategische Vragen | De Strateeg: Hoe wordt voedsel als wapen ingezet in conflicten?

De Strateeg | Hoe kwetsbaar is het wereldwijde voedselsysteem?

Studio Schumpeter | Ron Stoop over Europa’s afhankelijkheid van Chinese zonnepanelen

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