The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS is a knowledge institute that conducts independent research. Our goal is to offer fact-based analysis of the challenges that our societies face in order to inform public discourse, public and private strategic decision making and contribute to international and national security in accordance with liberal democratic values.

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Latest Research

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  • No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties

    What determines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) can reduce casualties in intrastate conflicts? In the newly published master’s thesis, HCSS Data Scientist Emma Bokel examines 156 countries between 1989 and 2022 using Dynamic Panel GMM and a Causal Forest model to assess both average effects and underlying heterogeneity. The study finds that ODA does not reliably reduce conflict deaths on average, with a persistent “conflict trap” driven by prior-year fatalities. Instead, effectiveness depends on four key conditions: political stability, aid fragmentation, delivery channel, and purpose-specific aid dynamics, leading to policy recommendations emphasising context-sensitive allocation, multilateral delivery in fragile settings, and prevention over de-escalation.

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  • Lessons That Transfer: Observations from the Russo-Ukraine War for European Land Forces

    What lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war will remain relevant in future NATO land operations? In a new HCSS paper, Tim Sweijs, Jan Feldhusen, Markus Iven and Björn de Heer identify four tactical developments reshaping European land warfare: persistent battlefield transparency, AI-enabled intelligence fusion, the human factor and mass precision effects. Their findings highlight urgent priorities for force design, doctrine and military adaptation over the next three to five years.

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  • Defensieplanning: Voorbij de Platformlogica | Gevechtskracht als samenhangend systeem voor de Nederlandse Krijgsmacht

    Nieuwe tanks, fregatten en F-35’s versterken de Nederlandse krijgsmacht, maar zijn niet voldoende voor duurzame gevechtskracht. In een nieuw HCSS-paper laat gastauteur Leo van der Meiden zien waarom defensieplanning voorbij de traditionele platformlogica moet kijken. De sleutel ligt in samenhangende ketens, voortzettingsvermogen, regeneratie en aanpassingsvermogen. Wat betekent dat voor de komende Defensienota?

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  • The Unspoken Guardians of the Internet: Why Non-profit Cybersecurity Matters for Public Safety and Global Resilience

    Non-profit cybersecurity organisations are essential to global cyber resilience, public safety, and the continuity of the digital economy, this new HCSS report by Hans Horan, Ron Stoop and Jan Feldhusen shows. Despite protecting critical infrastructure, supporting SMEs, and preventing billions in potential losses, these organisations remain structurally underfunded and under-recognised. The report calls for governments and industry to provide sustained, long-term support for the sector.

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  • Bridge Over Troubled Water: Towards Effective EU Engagement in the Transboundary Politics of the Nile River Basin

    Since the project’s inception in 2011, tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have heightening the risk of conflict and instability in regions of vital strategic importance for the European Union. However, the EU’s ability to ease transboundary tensions in the Nile River Basin remains limited. This snapshot by assistant analyst Michelle Reitano explores how the EU can become a more effective player in the GERD dispute and proposes three strategic outlooks.

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  • HCSS Focus | Dreigingssentiment migratie

    Migratie wordt structureel door veel Nederlanders als de belangrijkste maatschappelijke dreiging gezien; belangrijker dan oorlog, economische afhankelijkheid of geopolitieke spanningen. In de nieuwe HCSS Focus analyseren Gerben Bakker en Jesse Kommandeur hoe migratiebezorgdheid samenhangt met gevoelens van controleverlies, politieke stagnatie en afnemend vertrouwen in de overheid. De analyse laat zien waarom het migratiedossier steeds meer een stresstest wordt voor bestuurlijke legitimiteit en maatschappelijke stabiliteit.

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Trending Topics

Find out what we are currently working on.

Link to: Europe in the Indo-Pacific

Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. HCSS brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Latest Research
Link to: Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Deterrence and Arms Control

Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition, by emerging technologies, or refinements in existing technologies. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble. How can Europe shape a reinvigorated arms control regime?

Latest Research
Link to: Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Transatlantic Relations

In the HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations, we study the history and evolution of the transatlantic relationship, looking to understand the deeper ideas and structures behind the changes in the U.S.-European relationship.

Latest Research
Link to: On Future War

On Future War

The nature of war endures, even as its character transforms. Today’s conflicts merge kinetic, connected, and synthetic dimensions. By bridging the perspectives of traditionalists and futurists, we seek to understand both high-tech and low-tech conflict, offering insights that help policymakers navigate an increasingly complex and contested security environment.

Latest Research
Link to: Energy Security

Energy Security

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition.

Latest Research
Link to: Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

Nationale Veiligheid en Weerbaarheid

HCSS onderzoekt hoe Nederland weerbaar blijft in een tijd van polarisatie, hybride dreigingen, georganiseerde misdaad en internationale spanningen. Met diepgaande analyses voor o.a. de Nederlandse Politie brengen we maatschappelijke kwetsbaarheden, beïnvloeding en lokale veiligheidsdynamieken scherp in beeld.

Latest Research

About The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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News

Catch up with the latest HCSS media appearances, interviews, op-eds, webinars, columns and more.

New publication | No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties

Irina Patrahau | ARES Group on defence supply chain monitoring

Tim Sweijs | 7 inzichten uit Oekraïne, Eurosatory en Fighter Lion

Two internship positions are open for applications!

Podcasts

Strategische Vragen | De Strateeg: Hoe wordt voedsel als wapen ingezet in conflicten?

De Strateeg | Hoe kwetsbaar is het wereldwijde voedselsysteem?

Studio Schumpeter | Ron Stoop over Europa’s afhankelijkheid van Chinese zonnepanelen

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