Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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EDF Dutch Participation

European Defence Fund: Challenges and Opportunities for Dutch Participation

17 Dec 2018

Confronted with numerous challenges at home and abroad, European defence is at a turning point. The European Commission has launched various initiatives to boost and strengthen European defence in general and the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base in particular. The European Defence Fund (EDF) constitutes a core element in these efforts. The EDF is […]

Vertical Tensions: Coming Together or Falling Apart? EU Cooperation in Key Policy Areas

14 Dec 2018

The internal cohesion of the European Union (EU) is being tested by both internal and external challenges. These include mass migration, rising populism, a lack of respect for the rule of law, terrorism, and economic and monetary difficulties. These challenges have placed a huge strain on the bonds between EU Member States and has illuminated […]

Threats, Arms and Conflicts: Taking Stock of Interstate Military Competition in Today’s World

6 Dec 2018

This paper by Tim Sweijs and Floris Holstege, part of the Strategic Monitor 2018-2019, conducts an empirical analysis of trends in interstate military competition. It gauges the perceptions and intentions, capabilities, and conflict activities of leading military powers in the international system for the period 2008-2018. The principal conclusion is that interstate military competition is intensifying, and can […]

Vestigingsbeleid Toetsingskader Strategische Veiligheid

Toetsingskader Strategisch Vestigingsbeleid in relatie tot (Nationale) Veiligheid

29 Nov 2018

Nederland heeft er belang bij om bedrijven binnen haar grenzen te halen, samen te werken met buitenlandse ondernemingen of diensten uit te besteden om zo economische toegevoegde waarde te genereren. Voor nationale en regionale overheden en gemeenten is de economische ontwikkeling een topprioriteit waarbij innovatie in een open setting als belangrijk wordt gezien. Tegelijkertijd wordt […]

NATO Nuclear Sharing

NATO Nuclear Sharing and the future of Nuclear Deterrence in Europe

31 Oct 2018

Since the dawn of the atomic age, nuclear deterrence in Europe has been primarily provided by the US, first through bilateral alliances and later within the NATO framework. Within this structure, US tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) are currently based in the Netherlands (although this has never been confirmed nor denied by The Hague) and four […]

Global Security Pulse October 2018: Political violence in the ring around Europe

25 Oct 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month’s edition explores trends identified within the realm of political violence. This Pulse presents new and underappreciated developments regarding the effects of large-scale foreign infrastructure projects, the premature repatriation of refugees, and resource mismanagement on the prevalence of political violence, as well as […]

Belt Road Initiative Looks East

The Belt and Road Initiative Looks East

24 Oct 2018

In the beginning of 2018, the People’s Republic of China formally invited countries in Latin America and the Caribbean to join its Belt and Road initiative (BRI). Created in 2013, the BRI has mainly be seen as an endeavor to secure steady supplies of raw materials, principally from Africa and the Middle East, and to tie the economic fates of its Asian neighbors to that of China. The big question: why would China want to include the Caribbean and South Pacific in the BRI? As neither region is highly promising in terms of critical raw materials, speculation about Chinese engagement has focused on geopolitical motives.

Tim Sweijs Testimony on AI and Future Impact

Testimony from Tim Sweijs on "Artificial Intelligence and Its Future Impact on Security"

22 Oct 2018

Tim Sweijs, Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, spoke recently at the SEDE Public Hearing on “Artificial Intelligence and Its Future Impact on Security”. This event was held at the European Parliament in Brussels and is a result of the increasing need for awareness and discussion surrounding artificial intelligence and its role in […]

Carbon Pricing Dutch Action

Why carbon pricing and climate-related disclosures are important for Dutch low-carbon action

17 Oct 2018

In this new HCSS Energy Transition Program article, Strategic Energy Analyst Jan Frederik Braun and Strategic Advisor Energy Lucia van Geuns argue that effective carbon pricing and climate-related disclosure should be key pillars of the Dutch commitment to formulate a new climate agreement before the end of the year. Strengthening these pillars contribute to an international […]

Future Capabilities RNLA

Playing to Your Strengths: A Different Perspective on Future Capabilities for the Royal Netherlands Army

27 Sep 2018

This report contains the results from a research project aimed at identifying new capabilities for the future Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). Rather than sketch a full future force profile, it concentrates on promising new, or to be renewed capabilities. The results are intended to feed ongoing transformation efforts within the RNLA and inform the Army […]

Global Security Pulse September 2018: The Crime-Terrorism Nexus

27 Sep 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month’s edition explores trends connected to the existing nexus between crime and terrorism, and presents new and underappreciated developments regarding European disengagement strategies, rising right-wing extremism, countering FinTech abuse, and the effects on the international order. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use […]

Pricy Perceptions: Can the Economy Predict Euroscepticism?

6 Sep 2018

In a time of Brexit and growing populism in Europe, economic conditions are never too far from the picture. Rising unemployment and inflation can be important drivers of Euroscepticism, sometimes even in times of economic growth. This snapshot explains the connection between the economy and changing attitudes towards the E.U. While economic conditions are important […]

Global Security Pulse August 2018: (Russian) Political Warfare

30 Aug 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia and consists of three separate parts: A table of the main trends regarding the threat of political warfare, […]

Towards tighter markets before peak oil demand

29 Aug 2018

Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to […]

Global Security Pulse July 2018: Vertical tensions

26 Jul 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month’s edition explores trends on the vertical tensions between individuals, national governments, and the European Union, and presents novel developments regarding Euroscepticism, trust in governing institutions in the Netherlands and Europe, and the effects on the international order. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes […]

Appendix Interdependence and Power

Appendix to Influence and Power in a Globalized World

11 Jul 2018

Joint publication of the Atlantic Council, the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures and HCSS. The Method Appendix to the study Influence and Power in a Globalized World reviews the theoretical justifications of each sub-dimension included in the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index. It also includes a broader discussion of the data series […]

GSP June 2018

Global Security Pulse June 2018: General Security Scan (open scan)

27 Jun 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we conduct an open scan, identifying threats and novel insights on the international order, particularly in the categories of trade and economics, climate and environment, technology, and megatrends. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies […]

Effective Dutch Climate Measures

Effective Dutch climate measures require an international approach

20 Jun 2018

The Dutch government is about to reach a general agreement on an ambitious national climate accord. This accord is designed to prepare the Netherlands for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 49% by 2030. Read the Policy Comment on the Dutch ambitions by Strategic Energy Analyst Jan Frederik Braun and Strategic Advisor Lucia van […]

Global Balance of Power in Cyberspace

A balance of power in cyberspace

15 Jun 2018

Cyberspace is managed by stakeholders from civil society, the private sector, and, to a lesser degree, by governments. The latter, however, is increasingly asserting its role in cyberspace, leading to a redistribution of power in which States are not only competing with other stakeholders, but also amongst each other. All cyberspace users thus face a power […]

Global Security Pulse May 2018: Migration and Security

1 Jun 2018

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we focus on Security and Migration, identifying new tensions in Europe and challenges to the international order. The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured […]

Sterke schouders, gedeelde verantwoordelijkheid

30 May 2018

Het aantal politieke ambtsdragers dat op jaarlijkse basis te maken krijgt met agressie en geweld is toegenomen ten opzichte van voorgaande jaren. Om deze problematiek effectief het hoofd te bieden is er in de afgelopen jaren een breed instrumentarium ontwikkeld, variërend van leidraden en campagnes tot bestuurlijke en strafrechtelijke maatregelen. Echter, waar geweld tegen overheidsmedewerkers in […]

Making cities in conflict areas more resilient

28 May 2018

By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents […]

Ensuring awareness and resilience cybersecurity

Cybersecurity: Ensuring awareness and resilience of the private sector across Europe in face of mounting cyber risks

23 May 2018

This study on cybersecurity, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), examines the impact of cyber-related threats and challenges on corporate Europe and the degree of engagement of European businesses in tackling issues at stake. Although the new digitization era offers huge economic and social opportunities, it also changes the nature and magnitude of […]

GSP Interstate Military Competition

Global Security Pulse April 2018: Interstate military competition

25 Apr 2018

The Global Security Pulse enables you to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. This month we present novel and must-read developments on interstate military competition. With the resurgence of geopolitical competition and the proliferation of technological advancements, interstate military competition is rapidly changing with the emergence of new arms races and contests. Much […]

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