The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.
This month’s edition explores trends identified within the realm of political violence. This Pulse presents new and underappreciated developments regarding the effects of large-scale foreign infrastructure projects, the premature repatriation of refugees, and resource mismanagement on the prevalence of political violence, as well as how these recent trends and developments affect the contemporary international order.
The Global Security Pulse (GSP) is made using an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Program, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.
Authors: Reinier Bergema, Esther Chavannes, Willem Oosterveld, Bianca Torossian (HCSS). Contributors: Peter Knoope (ICCT), Pieter Bindt, Tim Sweijs (HCSS), Danny Pronk (Clingendael).
Click here to access the methodology document.
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.