How Europe can act when NATO cannot: From NATO 3.0 to a European Plan B
A new HCSS paper by Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Davis Ellison argues that Europe needs a NATO-compatible Plan B for contingencies in which US participation is absent and NATO consensus cannot be reached. The authors propose a European Defence Compact that would give willing European Allies a pre-agreed political and military chain for action — while preserving NATO as the preferred framework and enabling a clean return to NATO command when consensus is restored.
Breakdown of the International Order? Strategic Options for Small and Middle Powers
The international order is fragmenting, but small and middle powers (SMPs) are not powerless. A new HCSS report by Benedetta Girardi, Stephanie Govaerts, Noemie Jacq, Sven Koopmans and Tim Sweijs sets out four strategic options for SMPs and argues that flexible, issue-specific coalitions offer the most promising path for protecting rules, strengthening resilience and shaping future governance. The report also lays out five key recommendations for the governments of SMPs.
New HCSS Report warns: Europe must break Russia’s strategic trap
Russia's sabotage operations, drone incursions and other sub-threshold attacks across Europe are often treated as isolated incidents. A new HCSS report argues they are a deliberate coercive strategy, designed to reduce European support for Ukraine. Drawing on case studies from Belgium and Poland, the report shows how Russia targets vulnerabilities in European decision-making while exploiting the difficulties of responding below the threshold of major war. To counter this challenge, the authors propose a 4D strategy of Deny, Disrupt, Degrade and Deter. Their central argument: every Russian sub-threshold attack should result in more support for Ukraine and greater costs for Russia.
