Reshaping the international legal order: China’s strategic use of lawfare and lessons learned for Europe
A new HCSS report examines how China uses lawfare to reshape the international legal order from within. By reinterpreting norms, building parallel institutions, and leveraging legal asymmetries, Beijing is expanding its influence across trade, technology, and maritime governance. The report outlines what this means for Europe and how policymakers can strengthen resilience and maintain normative influence in an increasingly contested legal landscape.
Dissertation Maarten Vonk | From Inference to Influence: Applying Causal Game Theory to Complex Security Environments
On 26 March, former HCSS Data Scientist Maarten Vonk defended his PhD thesis at Leiden University, examining how causal analysis can better inform policy in complex security environments. His research addresses a core challenge: distinguishing true cause-and-effect relationships from mere patterns. By integrating causal methods with strategic interaction between actors, the dissertation provides a practical framework to help policymakers choose appropriate analytical tools and anticipate how adversaries may respond in dynamic, interconnected security contexts.
Making Russia Fear Escalation Again
Russia’s hybrid war is expanding, exploiting NATO’s reluctance to escalate. Alexander Mattelaer’s latest HCSS paper argues that defensive resilience alone cannot stop Moscow. NATO must undermine the Kremlin’s confidence by demonstrating credible escalation options and reinforcing political will. “If NATO wants Moscow to back down, Russian leaders must fear escalation again,” Mattelaer warns. The paper lays out how Europe can restore strategic restraint and counter Russia’s confidence-driven hybrid strategy.
