New HCSS Report warns: Europe must break Russia’s strategic trap
Russia's sabotage operations, drone incursions and other sub-threshold attacks across Europe are often treated as isolated incidents. A new HCSS report argues they are a deliberate coercive strategy, designed to reduce European support for Ukraine. Drawing on case studies from Belgium and Poland, the report shows how Russia targets vulnerabilities in European decision-making while exploiting the difficulties of responding below the threshold of major war. To counter this challenge, the authors propose a 4D strategy of Deny, Disrupt, Degrade and Deter. Their central argument: every Russian sub-threshold attack should result in more support for Ukraine and greater costs for Russia.
Europe’s Strategic Trap: Why Russia’s Sub-Threshold Coercion Is Succeeding and How to Stop It
Russia’s sub-threshold attacks on Europe are not isolated incidents, but part of a deliberate strategy to weaken support for Ukraine. In a new HCSS report, Markus Iven, Ethan Mansfield, Nicole Eichstaedt and Tim Sweijs argue that Europe’s current response is failing and outline a new “4D Strategy” to Deny, Disrupt, Degrade and Deter Russian coercion: “Every Russian sub-threshold attack should trigger more support for Ukraine and impose greater costs on Russia’s war effort.”
New HCSS paper by Iskander Rehman | What the Spanish Civil War reveals about Ukraine and today’s strategic choices
A new HCSS guest paper by Dr. Iskander Rehman examines the war in Ukraine through the lens of an oft-cited but seldom explored analogy: the Spanish Civil War. It shows how protracted proxy wars often become global testing grounds for military training and innovation, and why democracies risk falling behind if they misread or underreact. The paper outlines key lessons on escalation, military learning, and the global nature of contemporary conflict.
