Transnational Organised Crime

Transnational organized crime remains a pervasive and evolving challenge that transcends borders, intersecting with global threats such as violent conflict, terrorism, climate change, and rising geopolitical competition. In today’s interconnected world, organized crime consists of increasingly fluid, decentralized, and technologically resilient trading networks that thrive in shadow and parallel global illicit economies. As they quickly adapt to a changing environment by leveraging their fluid organisational structures to exploit new opportunities created by war, market disruptions or other forms of conflict.

At HCSS, our research initiative delves into the complexities of organized crime, with a distinctive approach that combines qualitative and quantitative research. We specifically focus on the link between state stability, organized crime in conflict-prone environments and the undermining impact of subversive organized crime on our social, political, and judicial systems. As such we have covered areas ranging from Eastern Europe, to Africa and South-East Asia.

Latest HCSS Research on Transnational Organised Crime

Due to its close links to broader global dynamics, HCSS does research on organised crime as part of multiple projects, such as PROGRESS and the Strategic Monitor: Police.

In the Shadows of War: The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Criminal Networks in Eastern Europe

Veilige stad: Uitdagingen voor hoogstedelijke gebieden in Nederland

Looming and Lethal: Assessing the Operational Implications of Drone Use by Mexican Organized Crime Groups

De Staat van de Rechtsstaat: Waar Staan We, Waar Gaan We Naartoe?

Next Generation Organised Crime: Systemic change and the evolving character of modern transnational organised crime

About the HCSS Transnational Organised Crime programme

The HCSS Transnational Organized Crime research initiative delves into the complexities of organized crime, with a focus on the link between state stability and organized crime in conflict-prone environments, and the undermining impact of subversive organized crime on our social, political, and judicial systems.

Trends in transnational organised crime

Trends in the evolution and future trajectories of transnational organized crime are closely linked to broader global dynamics. Organized crime’s social and economic integration, along with recruitment into criminal organizations, depend on rapid demographic, technological, and systemic changes. With rising international multipolarity and geopolitical competition, the activities and markets for organized crime are likely to expand further. This expansion increasingly relies on a shadow global illicit economy and clandestine transfer and investment vehicles, which often intersect with and exploit the formal regulated financial system.

Next Generation Organised Crime politie monitor

Impact of geopolitical events on criminal networks

Unlike organized crime groups, criminal networks thrive on constantly changing alliances, and swiftly rearrange their activities to maximize profitability. This inherent fluidity is shaped by geopolitical trends, as shifts in the global landscape create new opportunities and challenges. War, in particular, always breeds crime. The weakening of institutions and restrictions on markets, inevitably create openings for organised crime groups, as their ability to circumvent these restrictions allow them to capitalize on the chaos and economic voids left by the war. Mass displacement of people, large shipments of small and heavy arms, and the disruption of existing criminal networks often reinforce ongoing illegal behaviour and foster the creation of new illicit activities.

Undermining effect on society

It is important to distinguish organised crime as such, and the impact it has on our social, political and judicial system, referred to as undermining or ‘subversive’ organised crime. Undermining is not the goal of criminal organizations but rather a side effect of their activities. Which is different from intended undermining for example due to foreign interference or influence. In regard to organised crime, undermining can manifest itself in society in the form of public violence such as assaults and assassinations, the dumping of drug-related chemical waste, threats made against and intimidation of public officials, and corruption.

Website Landing Page - Strategische Monitor Politie 3

Strategic Knowledge Centre on Subversive Organised Crime (SKC)

HCSS conducts long-running research for the Strategic Knowledge Centre on Subversive Organised Crime, under the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security. Research done under this research framework has covered organised crime trends and developments in Eastern Europe, Africa, and South-East Asia. The purpose of this research is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the most important geopolitical and criminal developments. Using an inverted pyramid structure, the research first highlights national and regional trends and the complexity of organised crime in a broader geopolitical context.

Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI)

Organised crime is increasingly leveraged as a non-state actor in foreign influence and interference, providing states with deniable, adaptable, and globally embedded proxies. These criminal networks operate across borders and thrive within shadow economies, making them well-positioned to support covert activities that destabilise societies. By exploiting market disruptions, conflicts, and moments of political volatility, organised crime groups amplify the impact of foreign information manipulation and interference, offering hostile actors a discreet means to erode governance, weaken institutions, and undermine public trust.