Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Strategic Monitor 2019 2020

Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 - The Writing on the Wall

28 Jan 2020

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence have tasked The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor, which monitors trends and developments in the international […]

The deteriorating outlook for Dutch small natural gas fields

27 Jan 2020

Over the last decade, long-term forecasts of Dutch natural gas production in small fields have consistently over-estimated production. The main reason for this is not technical or geological but rather an underestimate of the speed at which the business climate for the Dutch gas industry has deteriorated. Fewer projects than expected materialized; the projects that […]

What World do we Live in? An Analysis of Global Geodynamic Trends

25 Jan 2020

Has the world become more free and secure, or is democracy under attack? This report aims to answer the question “what is the state of the world today?” It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.

Methodological Annex: What World do we Live in?

25 Jan 2020

This short paper outlines the indicators and methods used to establish whether the world has become more equitable and prosperous, more democratic, and more peaceful. It also outlines the indicators and methods used to establish whether identitary issues have become a larger force in the international system, whether lawlessness has increased, and whether the world has become more connected. It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.

The Evolving Position of the Netherlands in the World

24 Jan 2020

Navigating the changing global environment requires first and foremost a keen understanding of changes in Dutch foreign relations. The Dutch Foreign Relations Index (DFRI) measures the relationship between the Netherlands and other countries over time. This can help in identifying potential partners as well as potential adversaries in the pursuit of Dutch foreign policy objectives. It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.

Methodological Note - The Dutch Foreign Relations Index: Version 2

24 Jan 2020

New report out now! To read, click here. This method piece outlines HCSS’ approach to measuring the Netherlands’ position in the world on the basis of other countries’ relevance and compatibility. Relevance considers how much the Netherlands trades with another country, how militarily advanced it is, and how much influence it wields internationally. Compatibility is […]

The Blind Eye Turned to the Far-right

22 Jan 2020

Terrorism from the far-right is gradually increasing, but effective and adequate legal tools for holding perpetrators accountable are lacking, whereas Islamist terrorism is framed and prosecuted in a much more extensive way. Politicized double standards must be overcome in order to hold perpetrators of terrorist violence accountable – irrespective of any specific ideology.

In the Eye of the Beholder? An Assessment of Global Security Perceptions

14 Jan 2020

All countries have procedures and – in some cases – methodologies to identify, analyze and prioritize threats to their national security. How does the Dutch perception of its security threats compare to the outlook of other states? It’s all in the eye of the beholder…This report is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.

Hybrid Conflict: Neither war, nor peace

10 Jan 2020

The international security environment is increasingly subject to hybrid threats, often in a subtle and pervasive way that impedes fast detection, accountability and retaliation. Read about ins and outs of Hybrid Conflict in our latest report, part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.

Informationskriegsführung zu Beginn des Informationszeitalters

7 Jan 2020

Dr. Tim Sweijs contributed an article on information warfare at the dawn of the information age, in the Sicherheitspolitische Jahresvorschau 2020, the annual national security foresight of the Austrian Ministry of Defense. At the dawn of the Information Age, all signs point towards the proliferation and maturation of tools and the sophistication of tactics used in […]

Cross Domain Deterrence and Hybrid Conflict

18 Dec 2019

Liberal Western democracies have been too complacent when it comes to dealing with contemporary hybrid adversaries. We have been following rather than leading. It’s time to seize back the strategic initiative, but how do we do that? In this new report, a joint paper by HCSS/TNO, Tim Sweijs and Samo Zilincik argue that Western democracies can and should develop a strategic deterrent posture in an age of hybrid conflict. Based on an extensive review of cross domain deterrence theory and practice, they offer four recommendations to policymakers.

Military Competition in Perspective: Trends in Major Powers’ Postures and Perceptions

4 Dec 2019

As Russian and Chinese defense expenditures pivot towards the acquisition of more sophisticated weapons systems, can Europe keep up on innovation? Hugo van Manen and Tim Sweijs present the latest report on Interstate Military Competition.

Conflict in Cyberspace: Parsing the threats and the state of international order in cyberspace

19 Nov 2019

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) on Conflict in Cyberspace was published in June 2019 and tracked emerging trends in relation to peace and security in cyberspace. This complementary research report delves into the two trend tables presented in the GSP by examining their underlying quantitative and qualitative evidence. First, the ‘Threats in Cyberspace’ trend table, […]

Substantiating the Defence Strategic Challenges

17 Nov 2019

The three main tasks for Defence can be found in the Constitution, Article 97, which states that a defence force exists to defend the Kingdom and the territory of the alliances (NATO and EU), to maintain and promote the international rule of law and to support the government in upkeeping the law, fighting disasters and […]

The Closing Window: Dutch Relevance in Space Examined

13 Nov 2019

In this paper Assistant Analyst Liam van de Ven and Strategic Analyst Patrick Bolder examine the opportunities, challenges and urgency of Dutch activity in space. They offer a two-track approach, involving both tailor-made nanosatellites and international constellations.

Advancing Cyberstability: Final Report

13 Nov 2019

Cyberspace represents one of the greatest inventions of mankind, reshaping personal, social, business, and political relationships. Unfortunately, due to attacks on and through cyberspace, urgent action is needed to ensure its stability. This concept of cyberspace stability—like its close cousin, international stability—requires a shared vision, one in which all parties recognize that geopolitical disagreements and […]

Global Security Pulse October 2019: Hybrid Conflict

24 Oct 2019

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. This month we present novel developments and must-reads on hybrid conflict. Our research suggests that the international security environment is increasingly characterized by hybrid strategies that fall under military, political, economic, information, and cyber domains. Hybrid threats are characterized […]

NATO’s Futures through Russian and Chinese Beholders’ Eyes

18 Oct 2019

As NATO celebrates the 70th anniversary of its Founding Treaty this year, many fundamental aspects of its future are widely debated within the Alliance itself. Western views on NATO’s future have, throughout the seven decades of its existence, ranged from those who predicted NATO’s imminent demise to those who claimed that the many ties that […]

Geopolitics Western Balkans

Policy Brief: Geopolitical Influences of External Powers in the Western Balkans

7 Oct 2019

Based on our recent report by the same name, this Policy Brief by Dr. LLM Arlinda Rrustemi & Professor Rob de Wijk sheds a light on the consequences of foreign influences in the Western Balkans. Furthermore, the Policy Brief highlights challenges and opportunities for Western actors in the region, including setting out a coherent accession plan […]

Geopolitics Western Balkans

Geopolitical Influences of External Powers in the Western Balkans

30 Sep 2019

This report examines how and to what extent multiple external actors are increasing their influence over the political elites and peoples of Western Balkans countries. It considers economic, political, religious cultural and security-related factors, and their impact on the future of peace and state-building processes. Increasingly, Eastern actors have been using hybrid threats (disinformation warfare, […]

Technology Security

Understanding the Strategic and Technical Significance of Technology for Security, Implications of Quantum Computing within the Cybersecurity Domain

18 Sep 2019

On 17 September a report about Quantum Computing was published by HSD Office: Understanding the strategic and Technical Significance of Technology for Security, Implications of Quantum Computing within the Cybersecurity Domain. This report was commissioned by and executed for the Hague Security Delta. The report was launched during the HSD Café about Quantum Technology. The […]

Ethics of RAS

Towards Responsible Autonomy - The Ethics of RAS in a Military Context

12 Sep 2019

The accelerating arms race in Artificial Intelligence and the diffusion of cheap, technologically advanced military systems among state and non-state actors, compel countries to adopt robotic and autonomous systems (RAS). This is due to not only the prospect of lagging behind allies, but the notion that adversaries use RAS to gain a significant military advantage […]

Groningen gas: een verlies van de license to operate

3 Sep 2019

Dit rapport is in februari 2019 verschenen in het Engels onder de titel: Groningen gas: a loss of a social license to operate. Dit artikel is gepubliceerd door Jilles van den Beukel, geofysicus en energieanalist & Lucia van Geuns, adviseur energie HCSS. In Maart 2018 besloot de Nederlandse regering om, zo snel als de vraag […]

The HCSS Cyber Norms Observatory:

The HCSS Cyber Norms Observatory: Making sense of the fragmented landscape

1 Sep 2019

The cyber policy field is defined by a wide range of institutions and dynamics. Within this context, siloed approaches and fragmentation are among the most cited reasons for the slow process of creating cyber policy and norms. The fact that cyberspace is fragmented is well known, yet the how it is fragmented has not been […]

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