Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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The Inflation Reduction Act Explained | What it means for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery materials

23 Aug 2022

Is President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) the perfect tool to help the U.S. become leader in clean energy tech? In the first of two papers, HCSS Strategic Advisor Energy & Raw Materials Jeff Amrish Ritoe will analyze the possible impact of the proposed policy changes on the global energy landscape, and share observations on the impact that the IRA can have on an American EV and battery materials supply chain.

Serious Gaming: Grounding and Directing Climate Action

8 Aug 2022

There is no doubt that climate change is severely affecting the entire planet. Anthropogenic carbon emissions catalyze the pace of melting ice caps, soaring temperatures, and decreasing rainfall patterns, creating concerning scenarios for the future. Risks are plenty, and climate action is imperative. This snapshot by HCSS Assistant Analyst Ricardo Pereira Teixeira and Michel Rademaker addresses serious gaming as a critical tool for undertaking climate initiatives and reports on the output from the NATO Crisis Management and Disaster Response (CMDR) Centre of Excellence course on Climate Security in Sofia, Bulgaria.

From the War in Ukraine to the Energy Transition: Searching for a New Balance in the Oil Market

4 Aug 2022

The world oil map is being redrawn, as Russia is looking for new energy markets and the EU looks for alternative producers of fossil fuels. We may aim for an orderly energy transition but in reality the last phase of the fossil fuel era may be relatively chaotic. This HCCS paper aims to shed light on some of the structural issues that contributed to the current crisis, as well as look ahead into some important trends in the oil market up to 2050.

Een Flexibele Organisatie voor Flexibel Optreden | Onderzoek Inrichtingsprincipe 2

27 Jul 2022

Wat zijn de problemen die Defensie ondervindt bij het kunnen voldoen aan planmatige verplichtingen en ad hoc aanvragen voor stand-by en in te zetten eenheden?

IMCCS | Climate Security Snapshot: The Balkans

25 Jul 2022

Countries in the Balkans face unique and concerning interactions between climate-influenced disasters and hostile geopolitical influences, write Elsa Barron and Hugo van Manen in a new IMCCS snapshot.

Iraqi Marshland Women: The True Guardians of the Marshes

7 Jul 2022

The Marshlands of Southern Iraq, often described as the ‘Garden of Eden,’ are under serious threat from the effects of climate change. In a new snapshot, HCSS assistant analyst Kendra Kock argues that Iraqi Marshland women should be considered one of the key stakeholders involved in the decision-making processes concerning the restoration of the Marshes and the livelihoods of its inhabitants.

Seoul’s Changing Indo-Pacific Manifesto and India: Policy Prescriptions for India-ROK Ties

23 Jun 2022

China’s stupendous rise and the subsequent rivalry with the US for global hegemony have forced countries to choose sides; caught between a rock and a hard place, middle powers like India and South Korea have sought to maintain partnerships with both countries in the geo-economic space while precariously balancing the two in the geo-political domain.

Action Needed: Three Priorities for Iraq’s Water Sector

22 Jun 2022

The water situation in Iraq is alarming. In 2021, the country experienced its second driest season in 40 years due to record low rainfall. Located downstream, much of the pressure on Iraq's water resources comes from dam construction in neighbouring countries, the impact of violent conflicts, and the consequences of climate change

Information-based behavioural influencing in the military context: mapping current expert thinking

21 Jun 2022

In information warfare, information-based capabilities are employed to target human cognition, seeking changes in attitudes, perceptions and behaviour by manipulating the flow of information. Even if information has always been used to shape adversary thinking and decision-making, major advancements in ICTs but also cognitive psychology have added to their centrality. As influencing efforts have grown, Western military organisations are shifting their attention to focus on information-based capabilities.

Between War and Peace: 'Hybrid Threats' and NATO's Strategic Concept

16 Jun 2022

In war studies, one can distinguish between the futurists on the one side and the traditionalists on the other: those holding that everything in today’s wars is new versus those holding that what happens today has already been seen in history, albeit in different guises.

Aanpak voor het vaststellen van interventienoodzaak en handelingsperspectief ten aanzien van strategische autonomie op cybersecurity

13 Jun 2022

Hoe kan de strategische autonomie op cybersecurity bewaakt worden? En welke beleidsmaatregelen kunnen – en moeten – in dit kader genomen worden? Nederland is een van de meest gedigitaliseerde landen wereldwijd maar daarmee is onze samenleving ook steeds meer afhankelijk geworden van een goed functionerende digitale infrastructuur. Cybersecurity is cruciaal om dit te bewerkstelligen.

Not When But Why | Embedding Causal Methods in Policy and Programming

8 Jun 2022

The latest HCSS publication provides a non-technical ‘how to’ manual of a causal assessment framework & explains how causal models can be developed, applied, and embedded into development policy and practice.

IMCCS | Decarbonized Defense: The Need for Clean Military Power in the Age of Climate Change

7 Jun 2022

Today the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) launched a new report, Decarbonized Defense: The Need for Clean Military Power in the Age of Climate Change, the first in a series of papers comprising the third annual World Climate and Security Report. The paper warns that militaries must accelerate efforts toward […]

From Lightning to USB-C: Why the iPhone's Upcoming Port Change Signals a More Geopolitical EU

2 Jun 2022

In this technology snapshot, HCSS strategic analyst Hugo van Manen discusses Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference and the reported announcement that Apple will switch the iPhone’s charging port from Lightning to USB-C as of 2023.

Reinvigorating NATO’s Edge: Military Innovation and the Strategic Concept

19 May 2022

What steps can European NATO allies take to manage the expected coming revolution in military affairs and maintain – or attain – a military-technological edge? In this new paper for GLOBSEC, Tim Sweijs sketches the challenges that the Alliance confronts in this endeavour and offers concrete recommendations to address these challenges.

The European tank storage sector: 2050 and beyond

12 May 2022

Europe is heading for a climate neutral future. For a smooth phase out of fossil fuels and their replacement with affordable low-carbon energy, governments need to support domestic industries in their transition and in setting up new supply chains.

Europa in de Indo-Pacific: moeilijk te vermijden en moeilijk uit te voeren

4 May 2022

Europese staten hebben zich in de afgelopen jaren steeds meer laten zien in de Indo-Pacific. Het meest in het oog springende voorbeeld was de tocht van de Britse Carrier Strike Group, waar het Nederlandse fregat Evertsen deel van uitmaakte. De groeiende Europese rol ontwikkelt zich te midden van snel toenemende spanningen in de regio. Volgens Paul van Hooft dwingt dat Europa, mede door de Russische invasie in Oekraïne, tot het maken van moeilijke keuzes.

How Wars End | War terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine War

2 May 2022

How do wars end? Tim Sweijs and Mattia Bertolini consider what we can learn from past war terminations: how long they last, how they end and factors that contribute, if they relapse and what this means for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Weapons of mass influence: Shaping attitudes, perceptions and behaviours in today’s information warfare

20 Apr 2022

In information warfare, non-kinetic, information-driven capabilities are employed to target human cognition, seeking changes in attitudes, perceptions and behaviour. The emphasis is on manipulating the information flow. At its core are behavioural influencing tactics that exploit flaws in human cognition. This paper sets out a number of crucial tactics that have proven effective at doing just that.

The U.S. Defense Production Act | Why America needs to do more if it wants to secure a steady supply of critical minerals

14 Apr 2022

On 31 March, President Biden signed an executive order to invoke the United States Defense Production Act (DPA) to alleviate shortages of critical minerals needed for defense and energy purposes. What does this mean for players in the critical minerals supply chain, and will it help the U.S. government close the gap with industry leader China and gain more control of its own critical minerals supply chain? Find out in the latest Op-Ed by HCSS Strategic Advisor Energy & Raw Materials Jeff Amrish Ritoe.

China’s military rise and European technology

8 Apr 2022

The People's Liberation Army is trying to become a “world class” military by leveraging the technological innovations of the 4th industrial revolution. In 2022, China still struggles with important military-technological gaps. Beijing should not be allowed to catch up with the help of European knowledge and technology.

The Promises and Perils of a Minimum Cyber Deterrence Posture: Considerations for Small and Middle Powers

6 Apr 2022

The emergence of cyberspace provides small and medium powers with a strategic weapons capability that historically has been beyond their reach. This report explores how this capability can become an indispensable tenet of the deterrence posture of small and medium powers.

European tank storage in global supply chains: Outlook to 2030

5 Apr 2022

How can the European tank storage sector adapt to the changing energy landscape and emerging geopolitical dependencies up to 2030? This paper by Irina Patrahau, Michel Rademaker, Lucia van Geuns, Sarah Ojukwu and Philip Geurts analyzes the mid-term outlook (2030-2035) for tank storage by examining European and global energy ambitions in times of a changing geopolitical world.

Unpacking the Climate Security Nexus | Seven Pathologies Linking Climate Change to Violent Conflict

30 Mar 2022

The specific causal mechanisms linking climate change to (violent) conflict onset remain under researched. The obscurity surrounding climate change’s links to violent conflict also hinders the development of targeted policy interventions at a time when the impact of such conflict is on the uptick. In our latest study, Tim Sweijs, Marleen de Haan and Hugo van Manen contribute to this gap by presenting seven climate-related conflict pathologies.

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