Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Ukraine’s Counter-Hybrid Campaigns in Cyberspace

31 Oct 2023

In reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian government stood up a variety of digital services and volunteer groups to counter Russia’s aggression in and through cyberspace. This guest paper by Stefan Soesanto, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, focuses on two of these Ukrainian hybrid warfare creations and their activities within the period from February 2022 to July 2023: the IT Army of Ukraine, which are conducting DDoS and destructive cyber operations in and through the cyber domain, and the Internet Force of Ukraine, who are active on the information warfare front.

Campaigning in the Grey Zone: Towards a Systems Approach to countering Hybrid Threats

31 Oct 2023

This paper by Sean Monaghan (CSIS) and Tim McDonald (RAND) examines grey zone competition as a complex adaptive system, offering a fresh perspective on military planning. The paper provides practical principles for campaigns in the 'grey zone' between peace and war, emphasizing understanding, action, and adaptation. Real-world examples illustrate this innovative approach to updating conventional military doctrine using systems thinking to address complex hybrid threats.

Moldova’s Response to Hybrid Attacks: A learning-by-doing Strategy

31 Oct 2023

Moldova's counter-hybrid measures against Russian hybrid threats have been a “learning by doing exercise”, writes Anastasia Pociumban (German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)). In a new HCSS guest paper, Pociumban provides an empirical review of Moldova’s response to hybrid threats, which significantly increased following Russia’s war against Ukraine.

De Strategische Belangen van de Nederlandse Maritieme Maakindustrie

26 Oct 2023

Wat is de economische betekenis van de Nederlandse maritieme maakindustrie? Wat zijn de sterktes, zwaktes, kansen en bedreigingen van en voor de maritieme sector? Op verzoek van het Ministerie van Economische Zaken en Klimaat heeft HCSS onderzoek gedaan naar de strategische belangen van de maritieme maakindustrie (MMI), in het kader van de wens van diverse Tweede Kamermoties om te komen tot een meer integraal nationaal maritiem industriebeleid, inclusief marinebouw.

Breaking Patterns: Multi-Domain Operations and Contemporary Warfare

26 Sep 2023

Today the dominant concept within NATO and other technologically advanced militaries is multi-domain operations (MDO). MDO aim to combine and coordinate effects from across military and sometimes non-military actions. This new HCSS study by Davis Ellison and Tim Sweijs examines how the adoption of MDO concepts can help armed forces achieve military success. The report argues that MDO could break away from the worst patterns of past conceptual work, though this will require concerted changes in prevailing approaches.

Aardgaswinning in Nederland: Impact op betaalbaarheid, leveringszekerheid en klimaat

21 Sep 2023

Welke mogelijke toekomstscenario’s zijn er voor de Nederlandse gasproductie? En wat is de impact op de betaalbaarheid en leveringszekerheid? Energie specialisten Jilles van den Beukel en Lucia van Geuns kijken in deze nieuwe HCSS studie naar twee opties: een scenario waarin het huidige suboptimale investeringsklimaat wordt voortgezet, en een scenario dat uitgaat van een aanzienlijke verbetering van het investeringsklimaat, met name door snellere en beter voorspelbare procedures.

Why should Europe guard the Indo-Pacific maritime commons: Order, Access, or US hegemony?

13 Sep 2023

This paper argues that Europeans need to more clearly formulate their objectives and develop policies based on a realistic view of their capabilities before embarking on a long-term commitment in the Indo-Pacific. This paper examines three distinctive objectives 1. upholding the maritime order, 2. ensure that Europe maintains access to key Asian economies, and 3. support for U.S. hegemony.

Great power competition and social stability in the Netherlands: The risks of Russian gas, Chinese raw materials and Taiwanese chips to vital sectors

3 Aug 2023

Great powers, that is states with exceptional political, economic and military power, are embroiled in an intensifying geopolitical competition. A geopolitical crisis in East Asia is likely to have an even greater impact on Dutch prosperity, well-being and security than the war in Ukraine, warns HCSS.

The Socio-Political Instability Observer: May 2023

26 Jul 2023

This year HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting experts from around the world give their views on the short-term likelihood and location of volatility and conflict globally. This 'Observer' outlines the results of the first Socio-Political Instability Survey and provides analysis.

Accelerating cross-border cooperation on hydrogen infrastructure: North Rhine Westphalia – The Netherlands

18 Jul 2023

The existing energy supply relationship between industrial consumers in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW), Dutch seaports and other supply chain partners is an important basis for the acceleration of green hydrogen supply chains between the Netherlands and NRW. In June 2023, HCSS co-organised a workshop on cooperation between the Netherlands and North Rhine Westphalia. This factsheet outlines the main takeaways from that workshop.

Oil Markets after the Invasion of Ukraine: Moving towards strategic competition

13 Jul 2023

The world oil map is being redrawn. What does the global oil market look like a year after the invasion in Ukraine? What are the foreseen trends in the global oil market in the next 10-15 years? HCSS strategic analysts Irina Patrahau and Lucia van Geuns explore how these shifts and market volatility are affecting European industries and their competitiveness, in this article written for the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute’s Foreign Affairs Research Paper on “Energy and Climate Diplomacy”.

Behavioural influence interventions in the information environment: Underlying mechanisms and techniques

26 Jun 2023

This paper by J.E. (Hans) Korteling, Beatrice Cadet and Tineke Hof begins by examining the neuro-evolutionary origins of cognitive biases and their subconscious effects on human thinking. The authors propose that information warfare can effectively exploit these cognitive biases to achieve desired outcomes.

European tank storage and changing geopolitical landscapes

22 Jun 2023

What are the implications of growing protectionism and strategic competition for Europe's energy security and decarbonization? In this paper, HCSS analysts Irina Patrahau, Lucia van Geuns and Michel Rademaker focus on the impact of the war in Ukraine on European energy security and decarbonization, with a specific focus on the tank storage sector.

A discursive analytical approach to understanding target audiences: How NATO can improve its actor-centric analysis

19 Jun 2023

NATO recently revised its main doctrine, the Allied Joint Doctrine so that it now centres around influencing human behaviour. Apart from raising questions how this should be done, it also underlines the need to better understand the target audience. This paper by Yannick Smits (Leiden University and American University of Armenia) addresses ow to increase the success-potential of information-based behavioural influencing operations and how to better measure the effects of these operations in the post-campaign phase.

De Staat van de Rechtsstaat: Waar Staan We, Waar Gaan We Naartoe?

13 Jun 2023

Hoe gezond is de Nederlandse rechtsstaat? De Nederlandse rechtsstaat scoort consistent hoog in internationale metingen, maar het vertrouwen in onze rechtsstaat is historisch laag. In dit nieuwe HCSS rapport onderzoeken we de problematische trends achter dit verschijnsel en verkennen we scenario's voor de toekomst.

Influencing security professionals: Are they biased and by which source?

12 Jun 2023

This paper by Johan de Wit (Delft Technical University) presents brief summaries of four key studies that explore the factors that drive our intuitive or reasoned perceptions of risk. These studies are all conducted in the professional security domain to investigate real-life security risk decision making. The results of this paper identify some fundamental human traits that can be exploited to influence human decision behaviour.

Cognitive Warfare as Part of Society: Never-Ending Battle for Minds

6 Jun 2023

This paper by Robin Burda (Masaryk University) examines the experiences of Czechia and Ukraine in dealing with Cognitive Warfare (CW) and the implications for the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It highlights the challenges faced by liberal democracies, which have their "hands tied" against CW threats.

The concept of Information Manoeuvre: Winning the Battle of Perceptions

25 May 2023

Judith T. van de Kuijt, Naomi Keja, Jacoline C. Slaager (TNO) explore four fundamental elements of Information Manoeuvre and identify three dilemmas concerning its scope and conceptual considerations. What should be the effects and what does it mean when information is used as a weapon? The question arises how the concept of Information maneuver can be defined. What is the essence of the concept, and of which elements does it consist of?

Smart Tactics or Risky Behaviour? The Lawfulness of Encouraging Civilians to Participate in Targeting in an Age of Digital Warfare

22 May 2023

This paper by Pontus Winther and Per-Erik Nilsson examines the implications of digital technology in modern warfare, focusing on the challenges it poses to International Humanitarian Law in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The study analyses the use of smartphone applications and chatbots by Ukrainian civilians to become advanced "spotters" of enemy movements.

Deception as the Way of Warfare: Armed Forces, Influence Operations and the Cyberspace paradox

16 May 2023

Cyberspace proved to be a catalyst to unlock the information environment, taking away restrictions of influence operations via Internet. Nowadays, the capabilities are near-limitless, but governance appears to be the (self-inflicted) limiting factor. While these limitations apply to the Netherlands they do not to others. Peter B.M.J. Pijpers and Paul A.L. Ducheine highlight whether the current cyberspace-induced manipulative influence operations truly differ from the old-school deceptive and misleading operations.  

Next Generation Organised Crime: Systemic change and the evolving character of modern transnational organised crime

15 May 2023

As organised crime groups play increasingly significant roles as agents of influence and political change, the subject should receive more attention from international relations, international security, and strategic studies, this new HCSS report warns.

Pathways to Disaster: Russia’s War against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

9 May 2023

The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This brief by HCSS analysts Paul van Hooft, Davis Ellison, and Tim Sweijs notes that NATO leaders and armed forces need to be conscious of unintended signals that can follow the placement of weapons, the movement of forces, and support to Ukraine, especially considering the deteriorating state of Russian armed forces.

Catching the trigger? Predicting interstate conflict

9 May 2023

Is it possible to predict conflict? Can we assess the likelihood that hostilities will break out between nations? Delving into these questions, MSc student Olivier Herlé joined us at HCSS for a thesis project in a collaboration between the TU Delft’s Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management and the HCSS Datalab. At the Datalab, Olivier’s model is part of a wider initiative to systematically identify and predict the drivers of conflict.

A Man-of-War is the Best Ambassador: European Naval Deployments as Costly and Useful Diplomatic Signals

2 May 2023

This brief by Jonathan D. Caverley (United States Naval War College) argues that even modest navies—almost uniquely among foreign policy tools— can effectively perform diplomacy when used thoughtfully and judiciously by civilian political leaders. Caverley explores how to analyse the diplomatic benefits of a naval vessel. The brief then discusses where to sink these costs.

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