War in the 21st century will remain a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. The new book “Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War“, published by Hurst and edited by Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels, offers the first comprehensive update and revision of ideas about the future of war since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
World renowned international experts from the War Studies field consider the impact of the war in Ukraine on the broader social phenomenon of war: they analyse visions of future war; examine the impact of technological innovation; assess our ability to anticipate this future; and consider lessons learned for students and practitioners of strategy.
Contrary to the progressive hope that international society had advanced sufficiently so that major war was a phenomenon in decline, this prospect now seems increasingly farfetched. The book argues that the Russia-Ukraine War has fundamentally shifted our perspective on the nature and character of future war, but also cautions against marginalising many other parallel trends, types of war, and ways of waging them.
The Russia-Ukraine War is pivotal because it has forced us to rethink our ideas about the future of war. Above all, the war has punctured techno-centric visions of future war. Rather than being relatively swift and decisive, it has turned out to be a war of attrition, with large armies stretched out on a battlefront of hundreds of miles, with no clear prospect of military victory for either side. This type of war requires societal mobilisation and conscription, the emptying out and replenishment of military stockpiles, the military-industrial weight of many non-belligerents, and large-scale international financial assistance to sustain the war effort.
The war in Ukraine blends traditional and enduring features of war and warfare with the latest technology. Yes, it showcases ‘battle clouds’ created by an emerging military-e tech complex; it features super-empowered individuals who have the power to turn on and off satellite access for communication and navigation; and it is the launching ground for the deployment of robots and (semi-)autonomous systems powered by AI in unprecedented numbers. Yet, the war also reveals many elements that are timeless: political leaders blundering into long wars they assumed to be short; the prevalence of mass fatalities on both sides; the return of trenches reminiscent of World War I; the critical role of information operations in shaping international narratives and shoring up material support; and the importance of immaterial factors such as morale to endure in a gruesome war of attrition.
War in the 21st century will continue to be a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. Despite looming large in the collective imagination, the phenomenon of war cannot be reduced to the war in Ukraine alone, as the ongoing armed conflict in the Middle East shows. It is necessary to learn lessons from the war in Ukraine, but not lose sight of many parallel social, military, technological and related developments that will characterise future wars.
The book features chapters by Azar Gat, Beatrice Heuser, Antulio Echevarria, Audrey Cronin, T.X. Hammes, Kenneth Payne, the late Christopher Coker, Frank Hoffman, David Betz, Jan Willem Honig and many other pre-eminent thinkers on the past, present and future of war.
About the authors:
- Tim Sweijs PhD is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, and a senior research fellow at the War Studies Research Centre at the Netherlands Defence Academy.
- Jeffrey H. Michaels PhD is the IEN Senior Fellow in American Foreign Policy and International Security at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals.
Reviews
‘The best edited volume on war and warfare to appear in this century.’ — Lt. Gen. (Retd) H. R. McMaster, former US National Security Advisor
‘One of the most detailed and forensic explorations of the war in Ukraine and its implications for the future of conflict. Drawing together a superb array of experts, this book links the strategic, technological and human experience of war in Ukraine with the wars that are an unwelcome but inevitable part of our collective future.’ — Maj. Gen. (Retd) Mick Ryan, Australian Army
‘Sweijs and Michaels have done a remarkable job pulling together a stellar collection of contributors who use the experience of the Russo-Ukraine war to illuminate all aspects of the future of warfare.’ — Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London
‘Of all futures to anticipate, those of war are the trickiest. An existential endeavour in which technology and human values meet under high pressure requires ingenuity, creativity and intellectual honesty to outline and frame. This book, written by the best in the field, has all of the above.’ — Florence Gaub, Director of the Research Division, NATO Defense College
‘A timely, thoughtful analysis. Leading scholars delve into theoretical and empirical questions about great power war, technological innovation, people’s war and other pressing issues.’ — Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Executive Editor of International Security, Harvard Kennedy School
‘Given the infrequency of war as well as its changing character, soldiers and scholars must rely upon theory and history to guide them towards an uncertain future. These essays offer useful aids to navigating through the fog of peace.’ — Thomas G. Mahnken, Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University
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