Lessons That Transfer: Observations from the Russo-Ukraine War for European Land Forces

The Russo-Ukrainian war has transformed the character of modern land warfare. Yet not every lesson observed on the battlefield will transfer directly to future conflicts.

In this new HCSS paper, Tim Sweijs, Jan Feldhusen, Markus Iven and Björn de Heer identify four tactical developments reshaping European land warfare: persistent battlefield transparency, AI-enabled intelligence fusion, the human factor and mass precision effects. Their findings highlight urgent priorities for force design, doctrine and military adaptation for European armed forces over the next three to five years.

The authors analyse four key observations through the lens of John Boyd’s OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act).

• First, persistent battlefield transparency has fundamentally altered the operating environment. Dense networks of drones, electronic warfare systems and satellite-enabled intelligence make concealment increasingly difficult. European forces must therefore invest in organic reconnaissance drones, counter-drone systems, electronic warfare capabilities, deception measures and electromagnetic discipline.
• Second, AI-enabled intelligence fusion is dramatically accelerating decision-making and targeting processes. Software platforms can now combine data from multiple sensors, identify targets and connect them to effectors in near real time. The paper argues that European militaries require resilient and sovereign intelligence fusion capabilities rather than long-term dependence on a single commercial provider.
• Third, the human factor remains decisive. The war demonstrates that leadership quality, training standards and organisational adaptability continue to determine battlefield performance. Ukraine’s rapid adaptation has been driven by short feedback loops, experimentation and innovation. European militaries should create stronger mechanisms to accelerate learning and reward effective adaptation.
• Fourth, mass precision effects at scale have transformed the battlefield. Cheap drones and loitering munitions now provide precision strike capabilities down to the lowest tactical levels, while long-range missile and drone attacks increasingly threaten rear-area infrastructure. European land forces require organic precision-strike capabilities, layered counter-drone systems and dispersed logistics networks.

The report concludes that European land forces should urgently integrate drones and counter-drone capabilities at scale, institutionalise deception and electromagnetic discipline, and begin developing sovereign European intelligence fusion systems. The most important lessons from Ukraine emerge where technological change intersects with enduring military fundamentals: information, adaptation, leadership and combined arms warfare.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is the first sustained, high-intensity land war between two European armed forces since 1945. While it is not a blueprint for every future conflict, it provides the most relevant empirical case available for understanding how modern peer warfare is evolving.

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The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, not should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Authors: Tim Sweijs, Jan Feldhusen, Markus Iven and Björn de Heer.

We would like to thank Frank Bekkers for his critical feedback and contributions.