Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Developing effective adaptation strategies to water scarcity: Lessons learned from Jordan

7 Aug 2024

How can the water scarce Middle East and North Africa region develop strong strategies that adequately address challenges, build resilience and respond to the growing (climate) migratory flows of the coming decade? This new HCSS Snapshot provides insights through the analysis of the water challenges and resilience strategies developed during the 2013 Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan.

The Role of Conventional Counterforce in NATO Strategy | Georgetown Security Studies Review

11 Jul 2024

Multiple NATO states have acquired long-range, highly precise conventional missiles and have discussed using these to target Russia’s nuclear weapons, risking possible nuclear escalation. How has conventional counterforce strategy shaped NATO’s history, and would such a strategy be viable today? HCSS strategic analyst Davis Ellison addresses these questions in the latest volume of the Georgetown Security Studies Review, with a paper titled "The Role of Conventional Counterforce in NATO Strategy: Historical Precedents and Present Opportunities".

IMCCS | World Climate and Security Report 2024: Military Innovation and the Climate Challenge

10 Jul 2024

The Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) released its annual World Climate and Security Report today, "Military Innovation and the Climate Challenge”. HCSS contributed a chapter on “The evolving character of war: Leveraging technological innovation in a changing operational environment”.

Notitie | De verantwoordelijkheid over de Nationale Politie ter discussie

10 Jul 2024

De grootste zorg bij de komst van één Nationale Politie in 2013 was dat het een afstandelijke en bureaucratische organisatie zou worden die de verbinding met de samenleving zou verliezen. In discussies werd dit door de minister ontkend, maar helaas kwam in werkelijkheid deze verbinding met de samenleving toch op de tocht te staan. In deze notitie pleiten Professor mr. em. Pieter van Vollenhoven en Drs. Lodewijk Gunther Moor er daarom voor om voor iedere wijk over een vast wijkteam te kunnen beschikken. Daarmee wordt het systeem van checks and balances van verantwoordelijkheden over de politie weer in ere hersteld en wordt voorkomen dat een eenzijdige oriëntatie het politiewerk gaat overheersen.

Kritieke grondstoffen in de provincie Zuid-Holland: Wat, waarom en hoe?

4 Jul 2024

Op verzoek van de provincie Zuid-Holland en in het kader van de Nationale Grondstoffenstrategie van de Nederlandse overheid onderzoekt dit nieuwe HCSS rapport door Irina Patrahau, Lucia van Geuns en Tom Draaijer de mogelijkheden voor de provincie Zuid-Holland om een grotere rol te spelen in (kritieke) grondstoffenwaardeketens, met een nadruk op verwerking, recycling en urban mining.

Critical raw materials in the Dutch Province of Zuid-Holland: What, why and how?

4 Jul 2024

Explore the potential role of the Dutch province of Zuid-Holland in shaping critical raw material (CRM) supply chains in support of Dutch and European raw materials strategies. Discover how Zuid-Holland's industrial activities and Port of Rotterdam offer strategic advantages. Learn about recommendations to strengthen CRM capabilities, including fostering innovation and enhancing policymaker-company dialogue. Based on interviews and a roundtable discussion by HCSS, this report provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders.

Cultural Inputs and Military Strategies: The Imamate in Contemporary Iran

3 Jun 2024

The reality of the political and religious functioning of the Islamic republic of Iran is misunderstood and often neglected by the West. In this HCSS guest paper, Dr. Fatima Moussaoui attempts to shed some light on the mindset of the imamate, the law of the Shi’a clergy established by Ayatollah Khomeini, and to distinguish between what is religious and what is ideological in the functioning of Tehran's leadership, both political and religious.

Essay | Jetzt oder Nie: The time has come to think and act as a European superpower

3 Jun 2024

The Russian invasion of Ukraine increased the acute need for a stronger European foreign and defence policy, argues HCSS director of policital affairs Han ten Broeke in this essay. This should come about as soon as possible, not just because of a possible re-election of Donald Trump, but also because of the autocrats within NATO and the EU. Even if President Joe Biden is re-elected to the White House, there is need for a European pillar under NATO.

Freedom isn't Free | A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine

30 May 2024

In this new Clingendael/HCSS co-production, Tim Sweijs, Bob Deen and Roman de Baedts analyze the consequences of continuing or stopping military support by the US and Europe. For Europe, a Russian victory will entail very high costs on multiple dimensions, the authors conclude. It is therefore preferable to continue to provide long-term and significant support to avert that scenario - even if the Americans no longer participate.

NL ARMS | Cooling the Cauldron: A Climate Security Intervention Framework

29 May 2024

HCSS is proud to have contributed to the 2023 edition of the Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies (NL ARMS), “Climate Security and the Military”, published by the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy. In the chapter “Cooling the Cauldron: A Climate Security Intervention Framework,” strategic analysts Laura Birkman, Irina Patrahau and Tim Sweijs offer a framework for the design of climate security interventions that may prevent and mitigate climate-related security effects.

New Technologies, Changing Strategies: Five Trends in the Hybrid Threat Landscape

29 May 2024

The impact of hybrid challenges will only intensify and manifest in new ways, conclude HCSS and TNO in this new horizon scan. The playing field for hybrid actors is expanding as the boundaries of engagement broaden. What is particularly noteworthy is the convergence of trends; hybrid actors are synergising various tactics across different domains. These developments will likely shape interactions in the international arena for the next five years, while also forming the foundation for future trends. In turn, defence strategies will need to develop alongside the changing hybrid threats.

RAND | The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism

14 May 2024

Is the United States entering a period of decline, and does it meet the preconditions for anticipatory renewal? Together with Michael J. Mazarr and Daniel Tapia, HCSS director of research Tim Sweijs authored a new study by RAND that was commissioned by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, to assess the United States’ competitive position as it faces a rising China.

Een snelle energietransitie: niet alleen voor het klimaat!

6 May 2024

Het huidige energiesysteem in Nederland, en de EU, is kwetsbaar; veel kwetsbaarder dan voor de VS of China het geval is, schrijven HCSS energie analisten Jilles van den Beukel en Lucia van Geuns in dit essay. In deze situatie vragen de strijd tegen klimaatverandering en de zorgen om betaalbaarheid en leveringszekerheid van energie vaak om dezelfde oplossing: een snelle overgang van een energiesysteem gebaseerd op geïmporteerde fossiele brandstoffen naar een systeem gebaseerd op duurzame bronnen van energie.

The EU's China challenge: Rethinking offshore wind and electrolysis strategy

1 May 2024

Will the market be flooded in a few years by cheap alkaline electrolysers from China or will we pay the price for independence by opting for more expensive home-grown equipment? When it comes to offshore wind energy and electrolysis, Europe must take measures to prevent strategic dependency, conclude researchers Joris Teer, Abe de Ruijter, Karlien Sambell and Sam Lamboo in a new joint TNO/HCSS report on China's role in the wind energy and electrolysis supply chains.

Freedom isn't free | Een kosten-baten analyse van de steun aan Oekraïne

22 Apr 2024

De kosten en baten van de steun voor Oekraïne - een Clingendael/HCSS co-productie. Een nieuwe paper over de gevolgen van voortzetten of stoppen van militaire steun door de VS en Europa, geschreven door Tim Sweijs, Bob Deen en Roman de Baedts.

Strategic Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific: Partnership for Maintaining Inclusive and Stable Maritime Region

22 Apr 2024

The Indo-Pacific stands as the 21st century's strategic epicenter, with Southeast Asia pivotal in its maritime dynamics. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific guides cooperation, including EU support. Addressing challenges is crucial for a stable, rules-based region. This paper by guest author Sumathy Permal delves into three key areas: assessing maritime challenges in Southeast Asia, exploring shared maritime interests between the EU and Indo-Pacific states, and discussing security frameworks suited to the regional context. Addressing these facets is vital for realizing a secure, rules-based Indo-Pacific.

Debating EU Enhanced Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: From Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) to Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP)

22 Apr 2024

Europe's interest in the Indo-Pacific grows due to trade, economic concerns, and broader international order issues. Despite obstacles, the EU is enhancing maritime engagement, focusing on information exchange and coordinated presence. This paper by guest author Marianne Peron Doise delves into Europe's objectives in the region, the hurdles it faces, and strategies for further contribution to maritime security.

Strategic Communication in the Indo-Pacific: Signalling EU Naval Commitment to the Region

22 Apr 2024

The EU sees the Indo-Pacific as a focal point for modern geopolitical challenges. Through naval strategies and operations, it signals a commitment to global maritime security. Credibility is key for effectiveness. The paper by guest authors Nicolas Blarel and Niels van Willigen analyses how this can be achieved, including in the Eastern part of the Indo-Pacific. It ends with policy recommendations for more effective signalling.

Mixed Messages and the EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

22 Apr 2024

The EU's Indo-Pacific strategy hinges on capability, credibility, and consistency. Amidst geopolitical shifts, it must emphasize economic benefits, adapt to political changes, and foster minilateral engagements for lasting impact, writes guest author Charmaine Willoughby, Associate Professor of International Studies at De La Salle University in Manila, the Philippines.

De Democratische Rechtsorde onder druk? | HCSS Factsheet

18 Apr 2024

Er zijn toenemende zorgen over de staat van de democratische rechtsstaat – zo blijkt uit het jaarverslag van de Raad van State. De take van HCSS: Het zijn terechte signaleringen. Tegelijk is het beeld gelaagd en complex. HCSS wijdde in 2023-2024 inmiddels vier publicaties aan de democratische rechtsorde : lees hier enkele key factors die in onze analyses naar voren komen.

In de greep van AI? De impact van de AI-transformatie op de maatschappelijke stabiliteit

18 Apr 2024

Zal de toenemende integratie van AI de Nederlandse samenleving de komende jaren daadwerkelijk op allerlei gebieden transformeren? Zo ja, welke vormen van druk zijn er dan te voorzien op de maatschappelijke stabiliteit? Hoe kunnen we daarmee omgaan? Lees er meer over in dit nieuwe HCSS rapport door Gerben Bakker, Sofia Romansky, Frank Bekkers, Bryan Smeets en Pieter Bindt.

TAG Transatlantic Compact 2024

3 Apr 2024

This letter to Allied governments proposes a Transatlantic Compact to stimulate and facilitate reconfirmation of the Alliance’s critical importance to the security of all the Allies while guiding the way for NATO transformation. It is also a substantive roadmap with specific capacity benchmarks and metrics that calls upon the Allies to focus at the 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington on the requirements necessitated by the new Russian threat and to accelerate progress towards fulfilling NATO Agenda 2030 and a more balanced and effective Alliance defense and deterrence.

The Socio-Political Instability Observer: January 2024

29 Mar 2024

The 3rd edition of the HCSS ‘Observer’ series highlights the escalating Israeli-Hamas conflict and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war as the perceived main sources of global socio-political instability. The survey results find that demographic changes are expected to have a greater impact on instability than environmental issues this quarter. This is notable given the rise of right-wing parties and the 64 countries holding national elections this year.

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

28 Mar 2024

Europe’s Responsibility within the Arms Control Regime after Ukraine, with or without the United States | In the latest publication by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, "The Future of Nuclear Arms Control and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War", HCSS senior strategic analyst Paul van Hooft proposes ways to strengthen the arms control regime: by Europeans playing a more prominent role.

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