New Technologies, Changing Strategies: Five Trends in the Hybrid Threat Landscape

Since 2020, a number of events have upset the norms guiding amiable interstate relations. COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and growing tensions between China and the U.S mark a deterioration of the global security environment. In this context, international actors deploy an assortment of coercive measures to leverage power and influence behaviour while evading detection.

One popular way of describing this phenomenon is through the term hybrid threat. A hybrid threat can be defined as the coordinated and synchronised use of military and/or non-military instruments by state and non-state actors which deliberately harm or undermine the foundations of a state or society. Importantly, hybrid activity remains difficult to attribute and below the threshold of conventional warfare. The difficulty of attribution associated with hybrid threats distinguishes them from conventional military activity and statecraft. Beyond the oft cited examples of foreign election interference and meddling in the information domain, strategic actors are adapting the tactics used to harm their adversaries. The practice of using hard and soft power simultaneously has been around for centuries. Yet, modern emerging technologies and globalisation have created new instruments for hybrid threats, intensified vulnerabilities in different domains, and increased the scale, speed, and reach of hybrid attacks.

This HCSS/TNO horizon scan presents five higher-level trends in the current global hybrid threat landscape:

1. Exploitation of economic dependencies
2. Weaponisation of widespread digitalisation
3. Distortion of reality
4. Manipulation of societal polarisation
5. Diversification of tools and actors

For each trend, the horizon scan considers the vulnerabilities which create opportunities for threats, the drivers motivating hybrid actors, and the current and potential future hybrid activities or modi operandi.

The trends in the horizon scan are not entirely novel, as they reflect evolutions of existing trends. However, they emphasise that the impact of hybrid challenges will only intensify and manifest in new ways. The playing field for hybrid actors is expanding as the boundaries of engagement broaden. What is particularly noteworthy is the convergence of trends; hybrid actors are synergising various tactics across different domains. These developments will likely shape interactions in the international arena for the next five years, while also forming the foundation for future trends. In turn, defence strategies will need to develop alongside the changing hybrid threats.

The results of this horizon scan are based on a targeted open-source literature review of international research on hybrid threats. Hereby, think tank reports and academic articles from the European Union and North America were reviewed, complemented by literature from beyond these regions, including from Ukraine, Russia, Japan, and China. The literature review findings were further validated with a survey of 15 experts working on hybrid threats at Dutch research institutions.

This scan by HCSS and TNO provides an overview of the most relevant trends and developments in hybrid threats, gauged by current academic communities. A word of caution: this horizon scan neither addresses counter hybrid measures, nor does it reflect on normative considerations associated with the implementation of hybrid tactics.

Chapter 2 outlines key observations around the five higher-level trends, supported by case studies and primary sources where possible. Subsequently, Chapter 3 presents some final observations of the horizon scan and provides considerations for future research activities.

Authors: Sofia Romansky, Alisa Hoenig, Rick Meessen, Kimberley Kruijver. Contributors: Tim Sweijs, Carolina van Weerd, and Frank Bekkers.

The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the V2309 Counter Hybrid research programme. The V2309 Counter Hybrid research programme is a TNO research programme conducted for the Counter Hybrid Unit of the Ministry of Defence. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministry of Defence.

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