Western Blind Spot: New HCSS Report explores why the West failed to anticipate Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Why did Western governments fail to anticipate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite clear warning signs? Based on 44 interviews with senior officials from NATO Headquarters, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as analysis of media reports, academic literature and official documents, the new HCSS report Blinded by Bias shows how deep-rooted cognitive and psychological biases shaped threat perception — and led to strategic inertia.
Verblind door Bias: Waarom het Westen de Russische invasie van Oekraïne niet zag aankomen
Nieuw HCSS-rapport “Blinded by Bias”: Waarom onderschatte het Westen Rusland’s intenties richting Oekraïne, ondanks alle waarschuwingssignalen? Aan de hand van 44 interviews en diepgaande analyse laat deze studie zien hoe cognitieve en psychologische biases het beleid vormden – en faalden. Welke lessen kan het Westen hiervan leren om beter te anticiperen op toekomstige dreigingen?
Blinded By Bias: Western Policymakers and Their Perceptions of Russia before 24 February 2022
Why did so many Western governments fail to anticipate Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite all the warning signs? Based on 44 interviews and in-depth analysis, this groundbreaking new HCSS report by Tim Sweijs, Thijs van Aken, Julie Ebrard, Philippe van Pappelendam and Anna Hoefnagels reveals how psychological and cognitive biases distorted policymakers’ threat perception — with far-reaching consequences.
