HCSS
  • News
    • BNR | De Strateeg
    • Columns
    • Draghi Report Series
    • Events
    • Podcasts
  • Publications
    • Publications
      • All Publications
    • Defence & Security
      • Behavioural Influencing in the Military Domain
      • (Nuclear) Deterrence and Arms Control
      • Hybrid Threats
      • Rethinking Fire and Manoeuvre
      • Robotic and Autonomous Systems
      • Strategic Monitor Dutch Police
      • Transnational Organised Crime
    • Geopolitics & Geo-economics
      • China in a Changing World Order
      • Europe in a Changing World Order
      • Europe in the Indo-Pacific
      • Knowledge base on Russia (RuBase)
      • PROGRESS / Strategic Monitor
      • Transatlantic Relations
    • Climate, Energy, Materials & Food
      • Climate and Security
        • International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS)
        • Water, Peace & Security (WPS)
      • Critical Minerals
      • Energy Security
        • Tank Storage in Transition
      • Food Security
    • Strategic Technologies
      • Cyber Policy & Resilience
        • Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace (GCSC)
      • Emerging Technologies
      • Global Commission on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (GC REAIM)
      • Semiconductors
      • Space
  • Dashboards
    • Dashboards
      • All Dashboards
        • GINA
    • Defence & Security
      • DAMON | Disturbances and Aggression Monitor
      • GINA | Military
      • Nuclear Timeline
    • Geopolitics & Geo-economics
      • Dutch Foreign Relations Index
      • GINA | Diplomatic
      • GINA | Economic
      • GINA | Information
    • Climate, Energy, Materials & Food
      • Agrifood Monitor
      • CRM Dashboard
    • Strategic Technologies
      • Cyber Arms Watch
      • Cyber Comparator
      • Cyber Norms Observatory
      • Cyber Transparency
  • Services
    • HCSS Boardroom
    • HCSS Datalab
    • HCSS Socio-Political Instability Survey
    • Strategic Capability Gaming
    • Studio HCSS
    • Indo-Dutch Cyber Security School 2024
    • Southern Africa-Netherlands Cyber Security School 2025
  • NATO Summit
  • GC REAIM
    • GC REAIM | Members
    • GC REAIM | Conferences
    • GC REAIM | Partners, Sponsors, Supporters
  • About HCSS
    • Contact Us
    • Our People
    • Funding & Transparency
    • Partners & Clients
    • HCSS Newsletter
    • HCSS Internship Programme
    • Press & Media Inquiries
    • Working at HCSS
    • Global Futures Foundation
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu

News

Joint Force Quarterly review by Dwight “Buzz” Phillips | Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War

June 26, 2024
This book shows how more perspectives—even contradictory ones—organized in a loose structure that illuminates through juxtaposition, can bring the reader closer to war’s true nature and character—or at least closer to what questions we should be asking, writes Dwight “Buzz” Phillips in his Joint Force Quarterly review on “Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War“.

Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War, edited by Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels, published by Hurst Publishers, 2024 (ISBN: 978-1911723165)

These are lively times for discussions about the future of war. After decades of conjecture about what war between two large nation-state militaries with modern ground, sea, and air capabilities might look like, we now have real data and experiences to draw on. Some trends now seem confirmed—such as the lethality of the modern battlefield for rotary-wing and fixed-wing aviation forward of the line of contact and, concurrently, the growing military value of unmanned autonomous systems. With other questions about the character of warfare, the debate has grown even fiercer—such as what the balance is between offense and defense, or what the significance and role of cyberwarfare is. Questions about trends—in what Michael Howard calls the forgotten dimensions of strategy—have also reappeared: What constitutes a sustainable defense industrial base, what is the value of professional armies versus citizen armies, and what causes a society to choose resistance instead of submission?

Beyond Ukraine tackles these questions and more in a collection of essays by leading defense theorists on both sides of the Atlantic. The edited volume arose from an October 2022 conference on the future of war, sponsored by the Netherlands Defence Academy in collaboration with the University of Oxford. It also reflects an increasingly sophisticated trans-Atlantic and transPacific military discourse that American readers should benefit from. Additional examples of those engaged in this discourse include the Royal United Services Institute, the Swedish Defence Research Agency, the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies.

The chapters in Beyond Ukraine are grouped into four topics: bounding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, exploring landscapes of future war, examining military innovation in future war, and anticipating what future war will look like. These are weighty questions that defy singular synthesis by one author. In this edited volume, the authors grapple with first-order questions about the nature of war and character of warfare—questions that U.S. security discourse sometimes neglects in its focus on pressing questions about operational concepts, specific force-structure choices, and preferred budget allocations. The danger of this American discourse is that U.S. military officers and defense professionals can miss emerging trends and changes that do not fit neatly within their own bureaucratic fights. Beyond Ukraine is a welcome antidote to this myopia.

One of the curious elements of this anthology is how the editors and contributors toggle between assessments of the changing character of warfare and the evolving nature of war. Antulio Echevarria, for instance, recasts common explanations for the decline of interstate wars as factors that are instead spurring their outbreak and increasing their severity. Other authors reexamine assumptions prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that the next war could be a cyber war. Several authors, including Frank Hoffman, present new frameworks for categorizing war’s faces, dimensions, or typologies, with the goal of better understanding how war is changing. Intriguingly, Jan Honig explores the degree to which future war might be characterized by people’s war or professional war. David Betz wrestles with how war is changing because of conflict in a sprawling, three-dimensional urban landscape with layers of overlapping social orders. T.X. Hammes directly takes on the question of the rising dominance of the tactical defense, while Audrey Cronin describes how nonstate actors and minor powers would be able to exploit cutting-edge dual-use technologies to their advantage.

On the other hand, Paul van Hooft cautions against overestimating this tactical “denial-centric vision,” arguing that in a globalized, specialized, high-tech world, only a few Great Powers have the strategic capabilities to deny other powers their access to resources or movement of military forces outside their home territories. Other chapters consider the implications of artificial intelligence, drone swarm technology, and individual “new-age tinkering” on how militaries could innovate and how defense-industry complexes must change.

Grappling with the changing face of war is clearly like blind men trying to describe an elephant. The concluding chapter by Antoine Bousquet makes the case that those who argue that the nature of war is “immutable”—driven by anger, fear, hatred, and courage—miss the “unparalleled plasticity and open-endedness” of the human animal and thus miss the ways that both the nature of war and the character of warfare change as polities, societies, and technologies evolve. Indeed, that is an underlying theme of Beyond Ukraine—and it is a rejoinder against the singular focus on technology by most Western military establishments. Fortunately, Beyond Ukraine shows how more perspectives—even contradictory ones—organized in a loose structure that illuminates through juxtaposition, can bring the reader closer to war’s true nature and character—or at least closer to what questions we should be asking.

Download PDF

Dwight “Buzz” Phillips is a Senior Policy Researcher at RAND. He served 25 years in the U.S. Army as an Infantry Officer and Strategic Planner. He has a Ph.D. in History from the University of Chicago.

Source: Joint Force Quarterly, Vol. 113, Article 16, published by National Defense University.

  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on X
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail

Experts

Tim Sweijs
Jeffrey H. Michaels

Related News

Related Content

Symposium Rewatch | Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War
Recensie “Beyond Ukraine” | Clingendael Spectator: Wat de Oekraïne-oorlog ons leert over toekomstige conflicten
Symposium | Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War

Office Address

  • The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
  • Lange Voorhout 1
  • 2514 EA The Hague
  • The Netherlands

Contact Us

  • Telephone: +31(70) 318 48 40
  • E-mail: info@hcss.nl
  • IBAN NL10INGB0666328730
  • BIC INGBNL2A
  • VAT NL.8101.32.436.B01
  • Contact

Legal & Privacy

  • Disclaimer & Privacy
  • Algemene Voorwaarden (NL) 
  • Terms & Conditions (ENG) 
  • Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure
  • Ethical Standards
  • Manual for Responsible Use of AI

Follow us

© The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
    Link to: Alisa Hoenig on cementing her interest in the Indo-Pacific, mentorship and next steps Link to: Alisa Hoenig on cementing her interest in the Indo-Pacific, mentorship and next steps Alisa Hoenig on cementing her interest in the Indo-Pacific, mentorship and next... Link to: Column Rob de Wijk: In Washington gaan de alarmbellen af Link to: Column Rob de Wijk: In Washington gaan de alarmbellen af Column Rob de Wijk: In Washington gaan de alarmbellen af
    Scroll to top Scroll to top Scroll to top

    GDPR Consent

    Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

    Privacy policy | Close
    Settings

    GDPR Consent Settings

    Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

    Website statistics collect anonymized information about how the site is used. This information is used to optimize the website and to ensure an optimal user experience.

    View details

    Functional cookies are used to ensure the website works properly and are neccessary to make the site function. These cookies do not collect any personal data.  

    View details
    Forget my settings Deleted!