Guest Paper | A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends

On the 3rd of July 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited experts from across the transatlantic community, specifically the US National Intelligence Council, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and the EU Institute for Security Studies to exchange views on future security trends in the transatlantic community and their implications for the Netherlands and Europe. This was the first event in a three-part series called ‘The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks’. The first event was titled ‘Navigating Tomorrow: Transatlantic Outlooks on the Future Security Landscape and its Implications for the Netherlands’. Check out the event recap here and read the official write-up here.

This guest paper A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends was written by Prof. Alcides Costa Vaz in anticipation of the second The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks ‘Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends’. This closed-door event will be held on the 23rd of September 2024.

The paper discusses the major factors shaping global security from a Latin American viewpoint. It identifies two broad categories of drivers: those affecting state power and global power distribution, and those shaping how actors perceive and prioritise security threats. The text emphasises both traditional geopolitical challenges (such as the U.S.-China rivalry, weakening collective security frameworks, and military technology advancements) and emerging issues like climate change, cyber vulnerabilities, and the empowerment of non-state actors.

A specific focus is placed on four key drivers that will shape the future of international security:

1. Geopolitical Rivalries and Weakening Collective Security: The resurgence of power struggles, particularly between the U.S. and China, is complicating global and regional security governance. Countries are increasingly adopting deterrence strategies, sidelining cooperative security mechanisms.
2. Sophisticated Conventional Arms and Cyber Vulnerabilities: Nations are more exposed to advanced conventional weapons and cyberspace threats, with limited global governance to mitigate these risks. The global arms market remains dominated by a few major powers, while non-state actors are gaining access to advanced missile technologies.
3. Technological Dependencies and Vulnerabilities: The growing reliance on digital technologies, satellite systems, and cyber infrastructures makes countries more vulnerable, particularly in regions like Latin America, where dependence and asymmetries are pronounced.
4. The Rise of Violent Non-State Actors: Organised crime, particularly in Latin America, is becoming more influential, contributing to violence, illegal activities (e.g., drug and arms trafficking), and even environmental crimes. This challenges both domestic and international security frameworks.

The paper highlights how Latin America, while generally free from interstate wars, faces significant security threats from organised crime, geopolitical rivalries, technological vulnerabilities, and environmental degradation. These trends are likely to persist, shaping both regional and global security landscapes in the near future.

Prof. Alcides Costa Vaz is the Professor and Coordinator of Graduate Studies at the Institute of International Relations of the University of Brasilia and former President of the Brazilian Defense Studies Association.