The Hague, May 12 2026 | Europe faces wartime fuel shortages as refining capacity declines, a new HCSS report warns.
Europe risks significant fuel shortages in the event of a large-scale conflict, as its energy system is increasingly misaligned with military needs. A new report by Dutch thinktank The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) finds that Europe’s fuel system is designed for peacetime efficiency, not the demands of crisis or war.
The study by Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop and Lucia van Geuns highlights a structural mismatch between supply and demand. Declining domestic refining capacity, combined with the slow development of alternative fuels, is reducing Europe’s ability to respond to sudden surges in military consumption. At the same time, dependence on imported fuels is increasing exposure to global disruptions and geopolitical shocks.
The most severe pressure points are in aviation fuel, a critical input for air forces and widely used under NATO’s Single Fuel Concept. In the conflict scenario assessed, the EU could face an aviation fuel deficit of up to 24 percent.
The Netherlands faces even greater strain due to its central role in Europe’s fuel system. As a key NATO Host Nation and part of the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, it is expected to support both national defence and the movement of allied forces across Europe. In a full-scale conflict, up to 35 percent of Dutch aviation fuel demand and 13% of road fuel demand could remain unmet.
At the same time, Europe’s growing reliance on imports deepens vulnerability. By 2040, the EU could depend on imports for up to 72% of its fuel in a crisis, tying supply security to maritime routes and external suppliers that may be disrupted in wartime.
“Europe cannot assume that fuel will remain available, affordable, and easy to move in times of crisis,” said lead author Irina Patrahau. “Without structural changes, fuel logistics risk becoming a limiting factor in European defence.”
To address these risks, the report identifies five priorities: strengthening national leadership on fuel security, preserving critical refining capacity, building resilient alternative fuel supply chains, improving protection of fuel infrastructure, and deepening EU-NATO coordination on strategic reserves and fuel resilience.
“Fuel security must be treated as a core security task,” said co-author Ron Stoop. “Policymakers need to act now to ensure Europe can sustain both its military operations and its economies under pressure.”
- Authors: Irina Patrahau, Ron Stoop and Lucia van Geuns
- Contributors: Michel Rademaker, Nico Tak, Tom Middendorp, and Marit Weurding.
- Data analytics: Maria-Antigone Rumpf, Energex Partners
The research was commissioned by VEMOBIN, the Association Energy for Mobility and Industry, and executed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors.
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